Unione Venezia vs Napoli: Serie A Match Prediction
Unione Venezia
NapoliMatch result
Unione Venezia 1:0 Napoli (0:0, 1:0)
In Italy. Serie A, Unione Venezia secured a 1:0 victory against Napoli. Following a 0:0 scoreline in the first half, the hosts found the net in the second half (1:0) to claim the home win. Our prediction was W2 (away win), but the bet lost as Napoli suffered a defeat.
Our prediction: W2 at 1.74 — the bet lost.
Venezia host Napoli at the Pier Luigi Penzo in Serie A’s seventh round on 17 October. The hosts are bottom without a point; eighth-placed Napoli are six points behind leaders Inter.
Venezia: defensive repairs come first
Form and home performance
Venezia have lost their last five matches across all competitions. Their latest outing was a 3:1 defeat at Atalanta, following losses to Lazio and Fiorentina. They scored in four of those five games but conceded in all five.
Where the balance breaks down
- Six league defeats have left Venezia 20th, with five goals scored and 16 conceded.
- All three home league fixtures ended in defeat, with two goals scored and eight conceded.
- They have no league clean sheets; BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred in three of six fixtures.
A new coach and several absences
Davide Nicola replaced Giovanni Stroppa on 16 October. Thierry Correia, Bartol Franjic, Marin Sverko and Gianluca Busio are injured. Armel Bella-Kotchap is doubtful, while Jordan Schingtienne returns after an ankle problem despite four confirmed absences.
- Atalantaaway1:3
- Laziohome0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:4
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:3
- Udinese Calcioaway1:2
Napoli: stronger league results than European form
Recent results and the away split
Napoli’s last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their latest result was a 3:1 Champions League loss at Villarreal. In Serie A, their last three games brought victories over Bologna and Frosinone, separated by a draw at Fiorentina.
Strengths and limits
- Napoli have 10 points from six league fixtures, with 10 goals scored and six conceded.
- They have kept three clean sheets, while BTTS occurred in half their league games.
- Their three away league matches brought one win, one draw and one defeat, with five goals scored and four conceded.
Returning options for Allegri
Frank Anguissa, Alisson Santos and Mathias Olivera are available after returning to group training. David Neres misses out with a muscle injury; Antonio Vergara, Costantino Favasuli and Alessandro Buongiorno also remain unavailable.
Napoli played on 13 October, so the returning players give Allegri more rotation options.
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
- Fiorentinaaway1:1
- Bologna 1909home1:0
- Arsenalhome0:1
Previous meetings favoured Napoli’s defence
Napoli won two of the three official meetings over the past five years; the other finished level. Venezia did not score in any of them. The fixtures produced just three goals, all finishing Under 2.5 goals. The latest meeting, at this ground in March 2025, ended goalless. Those results span different seasons and contrast with Venezia’s current defensive record.
- 16.03.2025Unione Venezia0:0NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 29.12.2024Napoli1:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie A
- 06.02.2022Unione Venezia0:2NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 22.08.2021Napoli2:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie A
- 08.05.2004Napoli1:1Unione VeneziaSerie B
The coaches stress respect and adaptation
Nicola described his new squad as possessing valuable qualities and Napoli as strong opponents led by an experienced coach. Allegri said Napoli must respect Venezia, adapt to the pitch and win. Neither coach specified a tactical plan.
Line-ups
Unione Venezia
Starting XI: 1. Filip Stankovic, 2. Matias Moreno, 5. Ridgeciano Haps, 10. John Yeboah, 15. Juan Jesus, 18. Antoine Hainaut, 19. Simon Sohm, 25. Redouane Halhal, 26. Toma Basic, 45. Akor Jerome Adams, 71. Kike
Substitutes: 3. Joel Marcel Schingtienne, 7. Albion Rrahmani, 8. Mouhamed Lamine Fanne Dabo, 16. Rufai Mohammed, 20. Richie Sagrado Sebastiao, 21. Thorir Johann Helgason, 29. Lion Lauberbach, 30. Matteo Dagasso, 36. Lorenzo Berardi, 55. Simone Panada, 56. Kornel Lisman, 70. Pasquale Mazzocchi, 77. Toni Fernandez, 95. Alejandro Gomes Furtado, 96. Lorenzo Montipo
Coach: Davide Nicola
Napoli
Starting XI: 1. Alex Meret, 5. Benoit Badiashile Mukinayi, 6. Billy Gilmour, 8. Scott McTominay, 13. Amir Rrahmani, 20. Lorenzo Lucca, 22. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, 23. Giovane Santana do Nascimento, 31. Sam Beukema, 37. Leonardo Spinazzola, 68. Stanislav Lobotka
Substitutes: 11. Kevin De Bruyne, 14. Nikita Contini, 16. Rafael Marin Zamora, 17. Mathias Olivera, 19. Rasmus Hojlund, 21. Matteo Politano, 27. Alisson de Almeida Santos, 32. Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, 35. Luca Marianucci, 70. Noa Lang, 99. Andre Zambo Anguissa
Coach: Massimiliano Allegri
Our pick for the Penzo
Our bet is W2 1.74. Venezia have lost all six league games, conceding 2.67 goals per match: Napoli do not need an exceptional attacking display to exploit that defensive record. The visitors have three wins from six rounds and a 10:6 goal balance, a firmer basis for backing them than the hosts’ five goals scored and 16 conceded.
Venezia’s absences reduce Davide Nicola’s options: Thierry Correia, Bartol Franjic, Marin Sverko and Gianluca Busio are unavailable, while Armel Bella-Kotchap is doubtful. Napoli regain Frank Anguissa and Mathias Olivera, although David Neres and Alessandro Buongiorno remain out. The main reservation is Napoli’s away return of one win, one draw and one defeat; their favouritism should not be mistaken for certainty. A likely score is 1:2.
Final betting view
W2 1.74 is the selection: Venezia’s depleted squad has little room to repair a defence that has conceded eight goals in three home league matches. Napoli’s uneven away results call for restraint, but do not outweigh that weakness.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Atalantaaway1:3
- Laziohome0:2
- Fiorentinahome2:4
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:3
- Udinese Calcioaway1:2
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Frosinone Calciohome3:0
- Fiorentinaaway1:1
- Bologna 1909home1:0
- Arsenalhome0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:8 | 9 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6:16 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 16.03.2025Unione Venezia0:0NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 29.12.2024Napoli1:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie A
- 06.02.2022Unione Venezia0:2NapoliItaly. Serie A
- 22.08.2021Napoli2:0Unione VeneziaItaly. Serie A
- 08.05.2004Napoli1:1Unione VeneziaSerie B
About the match
- 17 October · 09:00 New York
- Venue: Pier Luigi Penzo (Venice)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Napoli lead the market without overwhelming support
The margin-free 1X2 probabilities put Napoli at 56.6%, the draw at 23.3% and Venezia at 20.1%. Napoli’s league position supports their status as favourites, but their away results offer less separation.
Over 2.5 goals and BTTS each stand at 55.7%, a modest market preference for goals. Neither market, nor the match-result line, has moved noticeably over the last 24 hours. With each side’s league scoring record covering just six fixtures, neither goals market warrants a strong betting preference.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Odds
- 1.74
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 57%
- Market estimate
- 54%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.74
- Potential win
- 74 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.79
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $
