Torino — Lecce prediction: Serie A match analysis
Torino
LecceTorino host Lecce at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino in the eleventh Serie A round. Torino are tenth, Lecce fourteenth. Both lost their previous matches, while Lecce are on the longer losing run and have the weaker defensive record.
Torino: home advantage against a vulnerable defence
Torino have won three and lost two of their last five matches. They beat Udinese, Parma and Monza before losing to Como and Frosinone. Torino scored in four of those matches and conceded in four. At home this season, they have two wins and three losses, with seven goals scored and ten conceded.
Structure, strengths and missing players
- Torino average 1.4 goals per league match. Giovanni Simeone and Che Adams have scored two each.
- Rafik Belghali has one goal and two assists in five appearances.
- Seven of Torino’s ten league matches produced both teams scoring, and seven went above the stated total line.
- Torino have kept one clean sheet and concede 1.6 goals per match.
Franco Israel is unavailable with a shoulder injury. Left-backs Niccolò Fortini and Ricardo Rodríguez are also out, while Rolando Mandragora and Alessio Cacciamani miss the match through injury. Cristiano Biraghi has returned after illness. The absences affect the goalkeeper position, the left side of defence and the holding midfield role.
- Frosinone Calcioaway0:2
- Comohome1:3
- Monza 1912home3:2
- Parmaaway3:0
- Udinese Calciohome2:1
Lecce: unstable results and a high concession rate
Lecce have won once and lost four times in their last five matches. They included a 5-1 defeat at Frosinone. They scored in four matches and conceded in four. Three consecutive defeats have left them with nine points from ten league matches. Away from home, Lecce have two wins and three losses, scoring six and conceding nine.
Limited attacking output, major defensive exposure
- Lecce average 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per league match.
- Only four of their ten league matches featured both teams scoring, although seven produced more than the stated total line.
- They have recorded two clean sheets but conceded twenty-one goals overall.
- Jamil Siebert, Amar Abdirahman Ahmed Fatah and Youssef Maleh have one goal each.
Central midfielder Ivan Ilić, right winger Santiago Pierotti and centre-forward Willem Žebbé are ruled out. Lassana Coulibaly is doubtful with a hamstring injury, while Medon Berisha is training individually after a prolonged absence. The absences reduce depth in midfield, on the right flank and at centre-forward.
- Genoahome1:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway1:5
- Juventushome0:2
- Udinese Calcioaway3:0
- Bologna 1909home1:2
Recent head-to-head pattern
Torino have won five of the eight official meetings over the last five years, with one draw and two Lecce victories. The most recent meeting at this stadium ended in a Torino win.
The head-to-head record is tighter than the current league figures: recent meetings between Torino and Lecce produced several narrow results, while both teams now have defensive weaknesses. Lecce’s two victories in the series came away from Turin.
- 01.02.2026Torino1:0LecceItaly. Serie A
- 30.11.2025Lecce2:1TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 18.05.2025Lecce1:0TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 15.09.2024Torino0:0LecceItaly. Serie A
- 16.02.2024Torino2:0LecceItaly. Serie A
Team news and pressure before kickoff
Torino’s two latest losses, against Como and Frosinone, have increased pressure around coach Ignazio Abate. Biraghi’s return reduces the impact of the absences on the left, but the losses of Israel, Fortini, Rodríguez and Mandragora affect several structural positions.
Lecce’s three-match losing streak has also placed Eusebio Di Francesco under pressure, with his position potentially under threat if the losing streak continues. Their latest losses to Genoa and Frosinone exposed problems in both penalty areas. No additional confirmed lineup information is provided.
Torino’s scoring line is the target
For Torino against Lecce in Turin, our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.28. Torino have scored in four of their last five league matches, hitting at least twice in three of them. That makes two home goals a credible target, while exactly one would return the stake rather than produce a loss.
Lecce have conceded 21 goals in ten rounds, including nine across their three consecutive defeats. Their midfield protection is also weakened: according to media reports, Ivan Ilic is unavailable and Lassana Coulibaly is doubtful. Those absences could make it harder to restrict Torino’s chances, though no defensive injury is confirmed for the visitors. Torino’s own return of seven goals in five home league games calls for restraint rather than an aggressive scoring forecast. Our projected score is 2-1.
The final selection
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.28 targets Lecce’s high concession rate without requiring Torino to win. The refund at exactly one home goal is useful protection given the hosts’ recent scoring blank.
FAQ
When does Torino — Lecce kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 09:00 (New York), Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino (Torino).
What is the prediction for Torino — Lecce?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.28.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Torino win — 53%, draw — 26%, Lecce win — 22%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Frosinone Calcioaway0:2
- Comohome1:3
- Monza 1912home3:2
- Parmaaway3:0
- Udinese Calciohome2:1
- Genoahome1:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway1:5
- Juventushome0:2
- Udinese Calcioaway3:0
- Bologna 1909home1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Bologna 1909 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 | Torino | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 | Genoa | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Cagliari Calcio | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 01.02.2026Torino1:0LecceItaly. Serie A
- 30.11.2025Lecce2:1TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 18.05.2025Lecce1:0TorinoItaly. Serie A
- 15.09.2024Torino0:0LecceItaly. Serie A
- 16.02.2024Torino2:0LecceItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 7 November · 09:00 New York
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino (Torino), Turin
- Weather: 11° · precip. 0% · wind 1.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 09:10
Market view and goal expectations
The market makes Torino the clear favourite, assigning the hosts a 52.6% win probability, compared with 25.6% for a draw and 21.8% for an away win. The line has shown no meaningful movement over the last twenty-four hours, leaving the assessment unchanged.
The goal market is nearly balanced: the probability of more than the stated total is 49.1%, while the probability of fewer goals is 51.0%. Both teams scoring is marginally favoured at 51.1%. Torino’s seven matches with both teams scoring and Lecce’s defensive average of 2.1 conceded per game support an open scenario. Torino’s recent blank against Frosinone and Lecce’s low rate of both-teams-scoring matches limit that expectation.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.28
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
