Parma vs Bologna 1909: Serie A Match Prediction
Parma
Bologna 1909Parma host Bologna 1909 at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A’s eleventh round. The hosts are fifteenth with 8 points and need to pull away from the bottom group; ninth-placed Bologna have 14 points and are seeking a fourth consecutive win.
Parma: a sharp rebound after a difficult run
Parma have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 15 conceded. Their last five matches brought 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Defeats to Internazionale, Torino and Lazio were followed by a goalless draw with Udinese and a 3:0 away win over Atalanta.
At home, Parma have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. Simone Lontani leads their scoring with 2 goals in 5 matches; Giovanni Fabbian has 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 appearances, while Vincent Sierro has 1 assist in 4.
Parma’s balance, threats and absences
- Defensive improvement: Parma kept clean sheets in their last two matches.
- Home attack: 3 goals in 5 league matches, with 6 conceded.
- Scoring frequency: Parma scored in 2 of the last 5 matches; both teams scored in 4 of 10 league games overall.
- Absences: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia and striker Nesta Elfej are out; defender Lautaro Valenti is suspended. Pontus Almqvist is available after returning as a substitute on 28 October.
Almqvist adds an attacking option, but the absences affect midfield, defence and the forward line.
- Atalantaaway3:0
- Udinese Calciohome0:0
- Lazioaway1:2
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
Bologna 1909: stronger away profile and sustained scoring
Bologna have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Their last five matches brought 4 wins and 1 defeat: 2:1 at Lecce, 1:3 against Internazionale, 2:0 at Cagliari, 4:2 at Milan and 2:1 against Monza.
Away from home, Bologna have 3 wins and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. They are level with Napoli. Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda has 3 goals in 3 league appearances, Tommaso Pobega has 2 in 5, and Riccardo Orsolini has 1 in his single appearance.
Bologna’s attacking form and squad concerns
- Scoring consistency: Bologna have scored in all 5 of their latest matches.
- Defensive vulnerability: they conceded in 4 of those 5 games.
- Absences: defender Emil Holm and striker Roberto Piccoli are out. Jay Enem and Lorenzo De Silvestri are doubtful and training separately.
Bologna completed tests, warm-ups and tactical exercises on 3 November under Raffaele Palladino. Piccoli’s absence reduces the forward options, while Enem’s availability and the defensive absences affect rotation.
- Monza 1912home2:1
- Milanaway4:2
- Cagliari Calcioaway2:0
- Internazionale Milanohome1:3
- Lecceaway2:1
Head-to-head record keeps the matchup close
The five official meetings across the last five years are balanced from Parma’s perspective: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. The previous league meeting finished 1:3 at Parma. Before that, Bologna won 2:1 in the Coppa Italia, while Parma won the most recent meeting 1:0 away on 8 February 2026.
Across those five matches, each side scored 5 goals. Three games produced clean sheets, and only one went above 2.5 total goals. That scoring pattern is more restrained than Bologna’s recent results.
- 08.02.2026Bologna 19090:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 04.12.2025Bologna 19092:1ParmaCoppa Italia
- 02.11.2025Parma1:3Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 22.02.2025Parma2:0Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 06.10.2024Bologna 19090:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
Team news and the tactical context
Parma average 0.8 goals per league match, leaving little margin for an attack missing Elfej. Bologna’s recent scoring has come from several players, reducing their dependence on a single forward despite Piccoli’s absence.
No further tactical details are confirmed.
Our pick: Bologna to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.36. Bologna have scored in all five of their latest league matches, hitting at least two goals in four of them. Their away return of 8 goals in 5 games is especially relevant: the visitors have been more productive on the road than their overall average of 1.4 goals per match.
Parma concede 1.5 goals per league game and must replace suspended defender Lautaro Valenti. That absence weakens their defensive options against an attack producing goals across successive fixtures. There are counterweights: Parma have kept two consecutive clean sheets, while Bologna are without injured forward Roberto Piccoli. This is therefore a measured scoring bet rather than a claim that the hosts will collapse. The line also leaves room for a modest Bologna performance: one away goal returns the stake, while two or more win it. A projected score is 1:2.
Final call
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.36 targets Bologna’s scoring rather than the match result. Their recent frequency of multi-goal performances makes that the preferred angle, with a refund if they score exactly once.
FAQ
When does Parma — Bologna 1909 kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 12:00 (New York), Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma).
What is the prediction for Parma — Bologna 1909?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.36.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Parma win — 21%, draw — 27%, Bologna 1909 win — 52%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Atalantaaway3:0
- Udinese Calciohome0:0
- Lazioaway1:2
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Monza 1912home2:1
- Milanaway4:2
- Cagliari Calcioaway2:0
- Internazionale Milanohome1:3
- Lecceaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 | Bologna 1909 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 | Torino | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15:23 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 08.02.2026Bologna 19090:1ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 04.12.2025Bologna 19092:1ParmaCoppa Italia
- 02.11.2025Parma1:3Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 22.02.2025Parma2:0Bologna 1909Italy. Serie A
- 06.10.2024Bologna 19090:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 7 November · 12:00 New York
- Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)
- Weather: 10° · precip. 3% · wind 1.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 12:10
Market view and available lines
The 1X2 market assigns Bologna a 52% chance of an away win, compared with 21.3% for Parma and 26.7% for the draw. The visitors are clear favourites, but the market stops short of treating this as a mismatch. The line has shown no notable movement during the last 24 hours.
Under 2.5 goals is assessed at 55.1%, with Over at 44.9%. Bologna’s last five matches produced 14 combined goals, which runs against that preference. BTTS (both teams to score) is narrowly weighted toward “No” at 51.8%, with “Yes” at 48.2%.
Under 2.5 goals is the preferred bet, based on Parma’s limited home scoring and the head-to-head scoring pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.36
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
