Roma vs Sassuolo Calcio Match Prediction in Serie A
Roma
Sassuolo CalcioRoma host Sassuolo Calcio at the Olimpico in the eleventh round of Serie A. Roma are third with 24 points and remain in the title race; Sassuolo are seventeenth with 8 points, close to the relegation zone. Roma are unbeaten in the league this season.
Roma: attacking strength tested by squad absences
Recent form and home profile
Roma’s last five matches brought three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 18 goals scored. They scored in all five, including four against Slovan Bratislava, four against Cagliari and five away to Udinese. Their latest result was a narrow Champions League defeat at Manchester United, where they scored twice but lost after leading by two goals at half-time.
In Serie A, Roma have scored 28 goals and conceded 10 in 10 matches. Their home record is four wins and one draw from five games, with a 14:5 goal balance.
Strengths, weaknesses and expected personnel
- Roma average 2.8 goals per league match.
- They have kept five league clean sheets.
- BTTS landed in five of their ten league matches.
- The second-half collapse at Manchester United exposed fatigue and lapses in concentration after taking a lead.
Rensh, Pellegrini, Paulo Dybala and goalkeeper Mile Svilar are unavailable according to media reports. Manu Kone, Mario Hermoso, Wesley and Rodrigo Mora are doubts.
Niccolo Pisilli may return to midfield, Evan N’Dicka is expected to be available, Gonzalo Castro can replace Donyell Malen, Daniele Gilardi is set to cover for Gianluca Mancini, and Konstantinos Koulierakis may replace Mario Conseco. Roma’s leading listed scorers are Emanuele Lulli, Donyell Malen and Leonardo Balerdi Rossa, each with two league goals.
- Manchester Unitedaway2:3
- Udinese Calcioaway5:2
- Cagliari Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway3:3
- Slovan Bratislavahome4:0
Sassuolo: open attacking football with a fragile defence
Recent form and away problems
Sassuolo have one draw and four defeats from their last five matches. They have lost the last four, including a 2:4 home defeat by Fiorentina, and conceded in all five.
Their league record is two wins, two draws and six defeats, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home, they have no wins, one draw and four defeats, scoring six and conceding 12.
Threats, vulnerabilities and unavailable players
- Both teams scored in nine of Sassuolo’s ten league matches.
- They have conceded in all ten league fixtures, with no clean sheets.
- Eight of their ten league matches finished Over 2.5 goals.
- They concede an average of 2.6 goals per league match.
Kristian Thorstvedt and Armand Lauriente lead Sassuolo’s league scoring list with two goals each, while Sebastiano Esposito has one goal and one assist. D. Berardi, D. Boloca, F. Kande, I. Kone, Y. Paz, E. Pieragnolo, A. Pinamonti, Fedde Leysen and Jay Idzes are unavailable according to media reports. Christian Volpato is doubtful.
- Fiorentinahome2:4
- Laziohome2:6
- Comoaway0:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:4
- Milanhome1:1
Head-to-head record favours the hosts
Roma have won four of the last seven official meetings, with two draws and one defeat. They won the most recent three encounters: a narrow away victory followed by two home wins, both without conceding. The seven-match sequence also includes a seven-goal game.
- 10.01.2026Roma2:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 26.10.2025Sassuolo Calcio0:1RomaItaly. Serie A
- 17.03.2024Roma1:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 03.12.2023Sassuolo Calcio1:2RomaItaly. Serie A
- 12.03.2023Roma3:4Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
Team news and competitive motivation
Roma’s unbeaten league run has reached 17 matches, and they have the competition’s best goal difference. They seek a response to the European defeat before the international break, with several players’ availability to be decided close to kickoff.
Sassuolo have conceded in 13 consecutive matches. Their position near the relegation zone adds urgency, while the injury list limits their options. There is no further confirmed lineup news.
Our Forecast
Roma return to the Olimpico after the Champions League defeat and face a Sassuolo side sitting 17th with 8 points. The hosts have scored 28 goals in 10 Serie A rounds, including at least two in each of their last five matches. Their home record is 4 wins and 1 draw, with 14 goals scored in those five fixtures.
Sassuolo’s defensive profile suits this market: 26 goals conceded in the league, 12 in five away games, and no clean sheet in 10 rounds. The visitors have lost four straight matches. The injury list further reduces their options, with D. Berardi, A. Pinamonti, D. Boloca and several other players unavailable, according to media reports. Roma also have absences, including Paulo Dybala, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Mile Svilar and Rensch, but the attack has still scored in all five recent matches.
Roma’s league unbeaten run stands at 17 matches, while their motivation is reinforced by the need to respond before the international break. The market gives the hosts a 74.5% home-win probability, and the attacking matchup is more relevant here than the recent slight drift against Roma. Our expected score is 3:1.
Conclusion
Our selection is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.27. Roma’s five-match scoring run, 2.8-goal league average and Sassuolo’s 2.6 goals conceded per game make two home goals the clearest outcome.
FAQ
When does Roma — Sassuolo Calcio kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Olimpico (Rome).
What is the prediction for Roma — Sassuolo Calcio?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.27.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Roma win — 75%, draw — 15%, Sassuolo Calcio win — 10%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Manchester Unitedaway2:3
- Udinese Calcioaway5:2
- Cagliari Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway3:3
- Slovan Bratislavahome4:0
- Fiorentinahome2:4
- Laziohome2:6
- Comoaway0:2
- Frosinone Calcioaway2:4
- Milanhome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Internazionale Milano | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 | Roma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 | Como | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 | Sassuolo Calcio | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 | Monza 1912 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17:24 | 7 |
Head-to-head
- 10.01.2026Roma2:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 26.10.2025Sassuolo Calcio0:1RomaItaly. Serie A
- 17.03.2024Roma1:0Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 03.12.2023Sassuolo Calcio1:2RomaItaly. Serie A
- 12.03.2023Roma3:4Sassuolo CalcioItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 7 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Olimpico (Rome), Rim
- Weather: 14° · precip. 0% · wind 0.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 15:00
Market view and goal-line balance
The 1X2 market assigns Roma a 74.5% home-win probability. That assessment has eased over the last day, while the draw has moved to 15.4% and the away win to 10.1%, with both gaining support. Roma’s defensive absences and short recovery after Europe temper the advantage reflected in their league and home records.
The goal market is almost evenly split at 3.5: Under stands at 50.5% and Over at 49.5%, with a slight move toward fewer goals. BTTS Yes is 57.1%, without a meaningful change. Sassuolo’s scoring frequency supports BTTS, but Roma’s clean-sheet record is the counterweight.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 74%
- Market estimate
- 74%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
