Roma — Genoa forecast: Serie A match analysis
Roma
GenoaMatch result
Roma 2:0 Genoa (0:0, 2:0)
In Italy Serie A, Roma secured a 2:0 home win against Genoa. Following a goalless first half that ended 0:0, the hosts scored twice after the break to finish the second half 2:0. Our prediction for a home win (W1) proved to be correct, and the bet won.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.58 — the bet won.
Roma host Genoa at the Olimpico on 17 October. Roma are third with 14 points, two behind the leaders; Genoa are 17th with four points, narrowly above the relegation places.
Roma: strong league platform, but several absences
Recent form and home performance
Roma’s last five matches produced one win, three draws and one defeat, with 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. They scored in four games and kept two clean sheets. Their latest result was a 3:4 home defeat by Real Madrid in the Champions League.
In Serie A, Roma remain unbeaten after six rounds, with 14 goals scored and 3 conceded. At the Olimpico, they have two wins and one draw, scoring 8 and conceding 3.
Strengths, weaknesses and expected personnel
- Roma average 2.33 league goals per match.
- They have kept four clean sheets in six league fixtures.
- BTTS (both teams to score) has occurred in only two of six league matches.
Manu Kone, Paulo Dybala, Mile Svilar and Bryan Cristante are expected to miss the match. Donyell Malen is suspended after his red card. Gasperini has called for a reaction to the Real Madrid defeat and said the squad has enough quality to respond.
- Real Madridhome3:4
- Comoaway0:0
- Internazionale Milanohome2:2
- Torinoaway2:0
- Fenerbahceaway1:1
Genoa: recent improvement against a fragile league record
Results, away trend and scoring profile
Genoa’s last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. They scored in four games and conceded in four. Their latest result was a 2:1 home win over Fiorentina.
In Serie A, Genoa have one win, one draw and four defeats, with 5 goals scored and 11 conceded. They have lost both away league matches, scoring once and conceding three.
What Genoa can use and where the risk lies
- Genoa average 0.83 league goals per game.
- They have kept no clean sheets in six league fixtures.
- BTTS has occurred in four of six league matches.
- They trail Roma by twelve points.
Osmazhich leads Genoa’s league production with one goal and one assist. Dzhunior Messiyas has one goal, while Ellertsson has one assist.
Lorenzo Colombo, Franz-Etienne Mechtri, Djibril Sow, Lorenzo Venturino, Havel and Nouredinne are expected to be out. Amorim has returned to team training, but his availability remains unconfirmed. De Rossi said he was the only injured player close to recovery.
- Fiorentinahome2:1
- Rapid Bucurestiaway0:2
- Parmaaway1:2
- Sudtirolhome1:0
- Frosinone Calciohome1:1
Head-to-head record points toward Roma
Across nine official meetings in the last five years, Roma have won five, drawn two and lost two. The latest eight produced four Roma wins, two draws and two defeats. Roma scored in seven of those eight matches; Genoa scored in five.
Genoa won the most recent meeting 2:1 at home. The previous two fixtures at the Olimpico ended in 3:1 and 1:0 Roma wins. Roma have won four of the five recent home meetings, drawing the other.
- 08.03.2026Genoa2:1RomaItaly. Serie A
- 29.12.2025Roma3:1GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 17.01.2025Roma3:1GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 15.09.2024Genoa1:1RomaItaly. Serie A
- 19.05.2024Roma1:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
Team news and pre-match positions
Genoa have six players unavailable or doubtful. De Rossi is not expecting broader injury returns before kickoff. Neither side’s starting lineup has been confirmed.
Line-ups
Roma
Starting XI: 2. Devyne Rensch, 3. Konstantinos Koulierakis, 5. Evan Ndicka, 9. Santiago Castro, 15. Marten de Roon, 18. Matias Soule, 26. Leonardo Balerdi Rossa, 61. Niccolo Pisilli, 77. Emanuele Lulli, 86. Rodrigo Mora de Carvalho, 95. Pierluigi Gollini
Substitutes: 7. Lorenzo Pellegrini, 20. Nahuel Molina, 22. Mario Hermoso, 23. Gianluca Mancini, 32. Devis Stiven Vasquez Llach, 43. Wesley Vinicius Franca Lima, 63. Alessandro Di Nunzio, 68. Antonio Arena, 70. Giorgio De Marzi, 72. Lorenzo Paratici, 78. Mandjou Camara, 87. Daniele Ghilardi
Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini
Genoa
Starting XI: 1. Justin Bijlow, 5. Leo Skiri Ostigard, 10. Junior Messias, 18. Milutin Osmajic, 22. Johan Vasquez, 27. Alessandro Marcandalli, 31. David Puczka, 32. Morten Frendrup, 71. Samuel Wiafe, 77. Mikael Egill Ellertsson, 92. Stephan El Shaarawy
Substitutes: 2. Mario Mitaj, 4. Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho, 8. Tommaso Baldanzi, 9. Vitor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira, 14. Lukas Klisys, 16. Cody Drameh, 20. Stefano Sabelli, 21. Robson de Souza Junior, 25. Hamed Traore, 34. Sebastian Otoa, 39. Daniele Sommariva, 85. Marcelo Vaz, 99. Franz Stolz
Coach: Daniele De Rossi
Our pick for the Olimpico
Our pick is W1 1.58. Roma’s four wins in six league matches make the hosts the stronger choice, but the decisive contrast is between their scoring output and Genoa’s defensive record. Roma average 2.33 goals per league game; Genoa have yet to keep a clean sheet. That leaves the visitors needing a defensive improvement to contain the home attack.
Genoa have lost both away league fixtures, scoring once across those trips. Roma’s four league clean sheets suggest they can win without needing a high-scoring contest. The main reservation is the depleted spine: Svilar, Kone and Cristante are injured, while Dybala is also out and Malen is suspended. Genoa’s missing Colombo and Sow reduce their own options, so the absences do not erase the hosts’ advantage. Predicted score: 2-0 to Roma.
Final betting verdict
W1 1.58 remains the selection, with Roma’s league defensive record carrying more weight than Genoa’s recent home win. The hosts’ absences make this a measured pick rather than a high-confidence call.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Real Madridhome3:4
- Comoaway0:0
- Internazionale Milanohome2:2
- Torinoaway2:0
- Fenerbahceaway1:1
- Fiorentinahome2:1
- Rapid Bucurestiaway0:2
- Parmaaway1:2
- Sudtirolhome1:0
- Frosinone Calciohome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale Milano | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21:9 | 19 |
| 2 | Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16:3 | 17 |
| 3 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:14 | 4 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6:16 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 08.03.2026Genoa2:1RomaItaly. Serie A
- 29.12.2025Roma3:1GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 17.01.2025Roma3:1GenoaItaly. Serie A
- 15.09.2024Genoa1:1RomaItaly. Serie A
- 19.05.2024Roma1:0GenoaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 17 October · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Olimpico (Rome), Rim
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and price movement
The 1X2 market assigns Roma’s home win a 62.5% probability, the draw 22.2% and Genoa’s away win 15.3%. Over the last day, home-win odds have drifted, while the draw and away win have attracted support.
Over 2.5 is marginally favoured at 53.9%, although its odds have drifted as Under 2.5 has gained support. BTTS is almost level: Yes is at 51.1% and No at 48.9%, with no notable movement.
Roma’s scoring rate and Genoa’s lack of league clean sheets favour Over 2.5, but Roma’s defensive record and Genoa’s low output weaken the case for that bet.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.58
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 60%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.58
- Potential win
- 58 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.61
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +58 $
