UEFA Europa League Prediction: Celta vs Royale Union Saint-Gilloise
Celta
Royale Union Saint-GilloiseMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.45 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.26 pending
Celta host Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at Balaidos in Vigo on 5 November in the fourth round of the Europa League league phase. Celta are 25th with 3 points; Union are sixth with 7 points, two behind leaders Benfica.
Celta: attacking response needed
Recent results and home balance
Celta’s last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats, with five goals scored and seven conceded. Their latest match ended in a 0:3 defeat at Rayo Vallecano without a shot on target. They had previously drawn 0:0 with Real Betis, leaving them scoreless in consecutive games. At home during this sequence, they lost to Juventus, beat Alaves and drew with Betis.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Celta scored in three of those five games, with BTTS in all three.
- Their only clean sheet came against Betis; their goals have rarely been accompanied by defensive security.
- They have scored three and conceded four in Europe, while the comeback win at Celtic showed they can recover after conceding first.
Selection and availability
Claudio Giraldez is expected to make changes, with Iago Aspas and Williot Swedberg candidates to start. Javier Rodriguez Galiano has two tournament goals; Hugo Alvarez Antunez has one goal and one assist. Carl Starfelt, Miguel Roman, Borja Iglesias, Alvaro Nunez, Jones El-Abdellaoui and Pablo Duran are unavailable. Andres Antanon and S. Caceres are doubtful, while Hugo Gonzalez is available after checks ruled out a serious groin injury. A separate expectation that Duran could start conflicts with his injury status, so his inclusion is unsettled.
- Rayo Vallecanoaway0:3
- Real Betishome0:0
- Celticaway2:1
- Deportivo Alaveshome2:1
- Juventushome1:2
Union: scoring depth behind the winning run
Momentum and away evidence
Union have four wins and a draw in their last five matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding four. The sequence includes four consecutive victories, most recently a 2:1 win at Beveren. Four of these five fixtures were at home, so the scoring surge is not an established away trend. Their only Europa League away match this season produced a win and a clean sheet.
Attacking output and defensive balance
- Union scored in all five recent matches and kept two clean sheets; BTTS occurred three times.
- They have scored eight and conceded one in Europe after three rounds, giving them stronger attacking and defensive numbers than Celta.
- Guilherme Smith leads their tournament scoring with two goals; Sekou Keita and Dylan Aquino have one each.
Absences affecting selection
D. Olaru is out with concussion, Kevin Rodriguez has a muscle injury and A. Zorgane is also unavailable through injury. These absences reduce the available options.
- S.K. Beverenaway2:1
- Cercle Bruggehome5:2
- Hapoel Be'er Shevahome4:0
- KFC Nijlenhome3:0
- Real Sociedadhome1:1
Pre-match focus and selection questions
Union are unbeaten across competitions since August, extending beyond a short run of results. Celta’s immediate coaching question is how to restore their attacking threat while changing personnel.
Celta’s goal line is the target
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.5. Celta scored in two of their last three home games, including twice against Alaves, and their 2:1 win at Celtic showed they can reach the required total in Europe. Union conceded in three of their last five matches: their winning run has not meant shutting opponents out consistently. The bet targets Celta’s scoring rather than requiring them to beat the visitors.
The attacking absences reduce confidence: according to media reports, Borja Iglesias is unavailable, while Iago Aspas and Williot Swedberg are expected to start. Their inclusion would preserve attacking options, with Swedberg already registering a European assist. Celta’s two successive blanks remain the main warning, so this is a measured selection rather than a call for a high-scoring home win. A possible score is 2:1.
A two-goal target with protection
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.5 wins if Celta score at least twice, with the stake returned if they score exactly once. That protection suits a home attack seeking a response but missing several forwards.
FAQ
When does Celta — Royale Union Saint-Gilloise kick off?
The match starts on 05.11.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Balaidos (Vigo).
What is the prediction for Celta — Royale Union Saint-Gilloise?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.5.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Celta win — 41%, draw — 28%, Royale Union Saint-Gilloise win — 31%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Rayo Vallecanoaway0:3
- Real Betishome0:0
- Celticaway2:1
- Deportivo Alaveshome2:1
- Juventushome1:2
- S.K. Beverenaway2:1
- Cercle Bruggehome5:2
- Hapoel Be'er Shevahome4:0
- KFC Nijlenhome3:0
- Real Sociedadhome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ferencvarosi | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 24 | Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI Crete | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | 3 |
About the match
- 5 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Balaidos (Vigo), Vigo
- Weather: 12° · precip. 0% · wind 0.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 05.11 08:10
A narrow home preference in the market
Celta are the 1X2 favourites at 42.5%, against 31.1% for Union and 26.4% for the draw. The margin is modest despite Union’s stronger recent results and higher league-phase position. None of these lines has moved noticeably over the last 24 hours.
The goals market leans Over, assigning 54.2% to more than two goals, while BTTS is assessed at 58.1%. Both lines are unchanged. Union’s scoring run supports the attacking outlook, while Celta’s recent blanks are the main counterweight to goals at both ends.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.5
- Odds at prediction
- 1.39
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.5
- Potential win
- 50 $
- Status
- pending
