UEFA Europa League Prediction: S.C.U. Torreense vs Ararat - Armenia
S.C.U. Torreense
Ararat - ArmeniaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.47 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.35 lost
Match result
S.C.U. Torreense 3:2 Ararat - Armenia (1:1, 2:1)
S.C.U. Torreense secured a 3:2 victory over Ararat - Armenia in their UEFA Europa League match. The first half ended in a 1:1 draw, followed by a 2:1 score in the second period. Our prediction of Individual Total 1 Over (1) was successful, as the home team scored enough goals to win the bet.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.31 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.47 — the bet won.
S.C.U. Torreense face Ararat - Armenia at Magalhaes Pessoa in Leiria in the fourth round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Torreense have three points from their opening three matches, while Ararat - Armenia have none: Torreense sit 28th with a goal difference of 4:7, while Ararat are 36th at 2:11. A win would bring either side closer to the mid-table group; defeat would leave the loser near the bottom.
Torreense: limited attacking output and a new coach
Recent form and venue split
Torreense have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches. Their latest result was a goalless draw away to Portimonense, following a home win over Amarante and consecutive European losses to Sunderland and Ferencvarosi.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- They scored in three of their last five fixtures.
- Sunderland scored twice against them and Ferencvarosi four, exposing a gap between their domestic and European defending.
Available squad and tactical context
Volnei Feltes and Manuel Pozo have one tournament goal each, while Amine Oudrhiri has one assist.
- Portimonenseaway0:0
- Amarantehome1:0
- Ferencvarosiaway1:4
- Sunderlandhome1:2
- Tondelaaway0:1
Ararat - Armenia: stronger momentum, fragile European defence
Recent results and attacking trend
Ararat have won four of their last five matches, including their last three. They beat CSKA Yerevan away, Noah Yerevan at home, Olympia Yerevan away and Gandzasar at home. Their only defeat was a heavy home loss to AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League.
The latest match was a three-goal clean-sheet win over Gandzasar.
What the numbers show
- Ararat scored in four of their last five matches, including four away to Olympia Yerevan.
- They kept two clean sheets in that run, against CSKA Yerevan and Gandzasar.
- Their domestic scoring has not carried into Europe, where their attack has been less productive and their defence more exposed.
Players and team news
Zidane Banjaqui leads Ararat’s tournament scoring with one goal from one appearance. Maxence Carlier has one assist from two matches. No injuries, suspensions, expected lineup or formation are confirmed.
Ararat’s league-phase record also lists no points, two goals scored and eleven conceded, conflicting with the three-point total in the standings.
Standings pressure and the unavailable head-to-head record
Both clubs are six points behind Benfica. Torreense have the better European defensive record, conceding four fewer goals than Ararat.
No head-to-head record is available for comparison.
- Gandzasarhome3:0
- Olympia Yerevanaway4:1
- Noah Yerevanhome2:1
- AZ Alkmaarhome0:4
- CSKA Yerevanaway1:0
Coaching change and the confirmed absence
Joao Nuno took over as Torreense head coach at the end of October, after two straight Europa League defeats and an uneven domestic campaign. His selection and defensive structure remain unconfirmed.
Forward Adama Baradji remains out with an October injury and is not expected back before mid-November. Luis Quintero replaced him in the European squad. No additional match-specific news is confirmed for either team.
Line-ups
S.C.U. Torreense
Starting XI: 1. Lucas Paes Souza, 4. Volnei Feltes, 5. Mohamed Ali Diadie, 7. Dany Jean, 8. Alejandro Alfaro, 11. Manuel Pozo, 14. Jorge Aguirre de Cespedes, 19. Karem Zoabi, 23. Javi Vazquez, 33. Joao Marques, 45. Jonathan Mutombo
Substitutes: 2. Ianique Stopira, 3. Juan Maria Alcedo Serrano, 6. Amine Oudrhiri, 17. Musa Drammeh Jaiteh, 21. Nuha Jatta, 22. David Bruno, 26. Andre Simoes, 29. Luis Quintero, 31. Adriel George, 44. Silas Bjerre, 63. Daniel Noro, 86. Gustavo Rijo
Coach: Carlos Miguel de Sousa Martins Sande Simoes
Ararat - Armenia
Starting XI: 2. Hugo Oliveira, 7. Zhirayr Shaghoyan, 8. Juan Balanta, 16. Edgar Grigoryan, 19. Karen Muradyan, 43. Bruno Wilson, 47. Alexandros Malis, 70. Bernardo Oliveira Dias, 77. Artur Serobyan, 91. Sandro Lima, 98. Joao Victor Donna Bravim
Substitutes: 1. Arman Nersesyan, 5. Luis Martins, 9. Arayik Eloyan, 10. Armen Hambardzumyan, 11. Zidane Banjaqui, 13. Kamo Hovhannisyan, 14. Bruno Martins Pereira, 17. Maxence Carlier, 20. Alwyn Tera, 25. Abdallah Ndour, 95. Carlos Henrique Franca Freires
Coach: Manuel Da Silva Cruz
Our Forecast
S.C.U. Torreense face Ararat - Armenia at Magalhaes Pessoa after three Europa League rounds, with both teams needing points. The recommended bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.31. Torreense have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches, including their last two home fixtures: a 1:2 defeat by Sunderland and a 1:0 win over Amarante. After two consecutive European defeats, the hosts are likely to attack more directly.
Ararat have conceded 11 goals in three league-phase matches, including four against AZ Alkmaar. Torreense have conceded seven. The visitors have won their last three matches, with four wins in their last five, mainly in domestic competition. Torreense’s late coaching change adds tactical uncertainty, while João Nuno’s arrival coincides with a match in which every point has high value. Adama Baraji remains unavailable, but Luis Quintero was added to the European squad, preserving an attacking alternative. A 2:1 score is the expected result and covers the required goal line.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.31 is the selection. Ararat’s 11 goals conceded in three Europa League matches make at least one Torreense goal the clearest route to the forecast.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Portimonenseaway0:0
- Amarantehome1:0
- Ferencvarosiaway1:4
- Sunderlandhome1:2
- Tondelaaway0:1
- Gandzasarhome3:0
- Olympia Yerevanaway4:1
- Noah Yerevanhome2:1
- AZ Alkmaarhome0:4
- CSKA Yerevanaway1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | S.C.U. Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat - Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:11 | 0 |
About the match
- 5 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Magalhaes Pessoa (Leiria), Leyriya
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view: home advantage against current momentum
The 1X2 market favours Torreense, assigning a 54.9% probability to a home win, 24.3% to a draw and 20.8% to an away win. Home advantage and the stronger European defensive record carry more weight in the pricing than Ararat’s domestic winning run. The line has shown no notable movement in the last twenty-four hours.
Under the main total is marginally favoured at 52.3%, against 47.7% for Over. BTTS (both teams to score) “No” is priced at 50.5% and “Yes” at 49.5%; neither market has moved noticeably.
Torreense’s limited scoring supports an Under lean, but Ararat’s European defensive record weakens that bet. The narrow goal-market margins offer no clear selection.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.28
- Odds at prediction
- 1.31
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 74%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.28
- Potential win
- 28 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.28
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +28 $