Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Bialystok prediction: Europa League
Levski Sofia
Jagiellonia BialystokLevski Sofia host Jagiellonia Bialystok at Vasil Levski in the fourth round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Levski have four points from three matches and sit seventeenth; Jagiellonia have three points and are twenty-seventh. Both teams are outside the leading positions, making the fixture relevant to the league-phase standings.
Levski Sofia: unbeaten run and home return
Recent form and performance profile
Levski have not lost in their last five matches: three wins and two draws, with seven goals scored and three conceded. They scored in all five games and kept two clean sheets. The run includes a European away win at Viktoria Plzen, a cup victory at Spartak Pleven and a narrow success at Dunav Ruse in their latest match. All five fixtures were away, making this their first home game after a prolonged road stretch.
Levski’s main trend is controlled efficiency rather than high volume: they scored once in three of the five matches and conceded no more than one goal in each game. Their league-phase record is similarly restrained, with three goals for and three against after three rounds. Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno has been directly involved in all of the team’s competition goals, with two goals and one assist in two appearances.
Strengths, weaknesses and available players
- Scored in five consecutive matches and conceded only three goals during that run.
- Won three of the last five, including a European victory away to Viktoria Plzen.
- Conceded one goal or none in every recent match.
- Attacking depth is reduced by the absence of two forwards.
According to media reports, midfielder Asen Mitkov, forwards Radoslav Kirilov and Mustafa Sangare, and central defender Petko Hristov will not play. Hristov is suspended until the end of December. Reinaldo is the primary attacking reference, while Everton Bala has one tournament goal and Maicon has one assist.
- Dunav Ruseaway1:0
- Arda Kardzhaliaway1:1
- Viktoria Plzenaway2:1
- Spartak Plevenaway2:0
- N.E.C.away1:1
Jagiellonia Bialystok: improved results after a European setback
Recent results and away attacking threat
Jagiellonia have won their last three matches after two consecutive defeats. Across the last five, they scored ten goals and conceded five, recording three wins and two losses. The defeats were a one-goal away loss to Zaglebie Lubin and a home defeat by Anderlecht, in which they conceded three without scoring. They then beat Wisla Plock narrowly at home, won 6-0 at Lechia Gdansk in the cup and won 3-1 away at Wieczysta Krakow.
The away profile is more productive than the overall European record: Jagiellonia scored six and three goals in their last two road matches. They have scored in only three of their last five games, while the Anderlecht match showed how quickly their attacking output can disappear against stronger opposition. Their league-phase figures are four goals scored and six conceded after three matches.
Squad balance and tactical concerns
- Three consecutive victories have produced ten goals in total.
- Scored nine times in their last two away fixtures.
- Two defeats immediately before the current run included a three-goal home loss in Europe.
- Recent expert opinion points to reduced rotation options, changes after player departures and tactical mistakes.
Kamil Jozwiak, Rodrigo Conceicao and Osman Sow each have one goal in the tournament. According to media reports, Jagiellonia have a narrower rotation choice and lower squad quality after departures, alongside tactical errors.
- Wieczysta Krakowaway3:1
- Lechia Gdanskaway6:0
- Wisla PLockhome1:0
- Anderlechthome0:3
- Zaglebie Lubinaway0:1
Context around the match
Levski enter this home fixture after ending Ludogorets’ fourteen-year domestic dominance and winning the Bulgarian championship for the first time since 2009. The club is also appearing in the main phase of European competition for the first time in sixteen years. The return to the national stadium follows five successive away fixtures.
Jagiellonia’s recent three-match winning streak improves their immediate results, but comments surrounding the team focus on limited rotation, personnel changes and tactical errors.
Our pick: focus on Levski's goals
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.43. Levski scored on each of their last five outings, while Jagiellonia conceded six goals in three league-phase matches. That combination supports targeting the hosts' attack rather than requiring a home win: two Levski goals settle this bet regardless of the visitors' response.
Reinaldo's two goals and one assist in Europe make him the main attacking reference. Yet the absences of forwards Radoslav Kirilov and Mustapha Sangare, according to media reports, reduce the hosts' options. There is reason to keep the stake measured: Levski exceeded one goal in only two of those five recent games, all played away. Returning to Sofia is a change of setting, not proof of greater scoring power. The one-goal refund is therefore a useful safeguard. Our projected score is 2-1.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.43 targets Jagiellonia's European defensive weakness without depending on the match result. Two or more home goals win the bet, exactly one returns the stake, and none means a loss.
FAQ
When does Levski Sofia — Jagiellonia Bialystok kick off?
The match starts on 05.11.2026 at 12:45 (New York), Vasil Levski (Sofia).
What is the prediction for Levski Sofia — Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.43.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Levski Sofia win — 47%, draw — 28%, Jagiellonia Bialystok win — 25%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Dunav Ruseaway1:0
- Arda Kardzhaliaway1:1
- Viktoria Plzenaway2:1
- Spartak Plevenaway2:0
- N.E.C.away1:1
- Wieczysta Krakowaway3:1
- Lechia Gdanskaway6:0
- Wisla PLockhome1:0
- Anderlechthome0:3
- Zaglebie Lubinaway0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | AC Sparta Prague | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 26 | OFI Crete | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 | S.C.U. Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:7 | 3 |
About the match
- 5 November · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Vasil Levski (Sofia), Sofiya
- Weather: 8° · precip. 0% · wind 1.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 05.11 08:20
Market view and expected match pattern
Levski are the market favourite, with a win assessed at 48.6%, compared with 25.9% for a draw and 25.6% for an away victory. The hosts have a clear but limited edge: roughly half of the implied probability is assigned to a home win, while the two non-home outcomes together remain slightly more likely than that result. The line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
The goals market is close to balanced, with a 52.9% assessment for Over 2.5 and 47.1% for Under 2.5. BTTS Yes is rated at 56%, narrowly ahead of BTTS No at 44%. This points to a match in which both attacks have a credible route to scoring, without a strong expectation of a wide margin or highly open contest. Levski’s defensive consistency and Jagiellonia’s recent away scoring surge pull the assessment in opposite directions.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.43
- Odds at prediction
- 1.29
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
