Lillestrom vs Viktoria Plzen: UEFA Europa League forecast
Lillestrom
Viktoria PlzenLillestrom host Viktoria Plzen at Arasen on 5 November in the fourth round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Lillestrom are 31st with one point; Plzen are 33rd without a point. Domestic wins have not translated into European results for either side.
Lillestrom: domestic recovery, European problems
Recent results and the home-away split
Lillestrom have won four of their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding nine. Their current three-match winning run includes victories over Brann, Sogndal and IK Start. Both away games ended in clean-sheet wins, while their three home fixtures produced two wins and nine goals conceded. The European defeat by Real Sociedad accounts for six of those goals.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
The hosts scored in four of their last five matches, but BTTS occurred only twice. Three games finished Under 3.5 goals. In Europe, Lillestrom have scored two and conceded nine across three matches. Their main weakness at this level is defensive resistance.
Players and selection
Thomas Olsen has one tournament goal in two appearances, while Gustav Nordh has one assist in two appearances. No confirmed probable lineup, formation, injury list or suspension update is available, so neither player's starting status can be assumed.
- IK Startaway1:0
- Sogndalhome2:1
- Brannhome3:2
- Real Sociedadhome0:6
- Sandefjordaway2:0
Viktoria Plzen: productive trips, depleted central defence
Results before the journey to Norway
Plzen have three wins and two defeats in their last five outings, scoring 15 goals and conceding seven. All three away fixtures in that sequence ended in victories at Jablonec, Vysocina Jihlava and Banik Ostrava. Their two home games ended in defeats against Levski Sofia and Pardubice. Their last two wins produced ten goals, including six in the cup against Jihlava.
Scoring strength versus European returns
The visitors scored in all five recent matches and conceded in four; BTTS occurred four times. Three games finished Over 3.5 goals. That output contrasts with two goals scored and seven conceded in three Europa League fixtures. Their away form is stronger than their European record.
Absences and attacking contributors
Centre-backs Jan Paluska and Vaclav Jemelka are unavailable after groin and knee operations respectively; Jemelka is ruled out until 31 December. Christophe Kabongo and Denis Visinsky each have one European goal in two appearances, while Cheick Souare has one assist in one match. No confirmed replacement pairing, probable lineup or formation is available.
- Banik Ostravaaway4:0
- Vysocina Jihlavaaway6:1
- Pardubicehome1:2
- Levski Sofiahome1:2
- Jablonecaway3:2
Pressure to turn league progress into points
Plzen's October victories increased their distance from the domestic relegation zone, but they remain winless in Europe. Lillestrom's October draw at Sparta Prague is their only point in the competition. No named expert assessment or further confirmed team news is available.
Our Forecast
Lillestrom host Viktoria Plzen in the fourth Europa League league-phase round, with both clubs needing points from the bottom positions. Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.29. Plzen have scored in all of their last five matches across competitions, producing 15 goals in that sequence. Their attacking level has also peaked recently: the Czech side scored 10 times in its previous two games, including a 4:0 away win over Banik Ostrava.
Lillestrom’s European defence remains vulnerable at Arasen after conceding six goals to Real Sociedad in its latest home Europa League fixture. That weakness matters against a visiting team that has won all three of its most recent away matches and now has no room for another European setback after losing all three of its matches in the current Europa League league phase. The absences of central defenders Jan Paluska and Vaclav Jemelka weaken Plzen’s defensive depth, but they do not reduce the visitors’ scoring case to a single goal: Lillestrom conceded in three of their last five matches, while Plzen scored in five out of five. Expected score: 1:2.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1) 1.29 is the selection. Plzen’s five-game scoring run, 10 goals across the last two fixtures and urgent need for points outweigh the defensive absences.
FAQ
When does Lillestrom — Viktoria Plzen kick off?
The match starts on 05.11.2026 at 12:45 (New York), Arasen (Lillestrom).
What is the prediction for Lillestrom — Viktoria Plzen?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.29.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Lillestrom win — 33%, draw — 25%, Viktoria Plzen win — 42%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- IK Startaway1:0
- Sogndalhome2:1
- Brannhome3:2
- Real Sociedadhome0:6
- Sandefjordaway2:0
- Banik Ostravaaway4:0
- Vysocina Jihlavaaway6:1
- Pardubicehome1:2
- Levski Sofiahome1:2
- Jablonecaway3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Viktoria Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Olympique de Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
About the match
- 5 November · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Arasen (Lillestrom), Lillestrem
- Weather: 1° · precip. 0% · wind 0.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 05.11 05:10
Away favouritism without a decisive market edge
Plzen are the 1X2 favourites, with a margin-free market probability of 43.2%, compared with 31.9% for Lillestrom and 24.9% for the draw. The advantage is moderate, not indicative of away control. None of the listed markets has shown notable movement over the past 24 hours.
BTTS is assessed at 62.8%, while Under 3.5 goals carries a 59.9% probability. The market therefore rates scoring at both ends more likely than an exceptionally high total. Plzen's attacking form and defensive absences support that distinction without settling the outcome.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.29
- Odds at prediction
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 75%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
