Fulham vs Hull City: Premier League Match Prediction
Fulham
Hull CityFulham host Hull City at Craven Cottage on 17 October in Premier League round 7. The London side are bottom with 2 points; Hull are eighth with 9. The hosts are seeking their first league win, while the visitors have a chance to stay alongside the clubs immediately above them.
Fulham: home goals without a home win
Recent results and scoring patterns
Fulham’s last five matches brought one win, two draws and two defeats. Their only victory came in the League Cup, 3–2 at West Ham. A goalless draw at Liverpool showed they can contain an opponent, but their latest outing ended in a 2–1 defeat at Ipswich.
Strengths and weaknesses
- They scored in four of those five matches, but also conceded in four.
- Three home league games produced 5 goals for and 7 against, yielding just one point.
- BTTS occurred in four of six league fixtures; only one brought a clean sheet.
- Half of their six league matches finished Over 2.5, so scoring has not consistently meant high totals.
Availability and selection
Hugo Larsson is doubtful with a minor groin injury, with assessment planned after Friday’s training. Alvaro Arbeloa says all other players are fit and available. A probable starting XI and formation have not been supplied, so Larsson’s status is the only confirmed selection concern rather than a basis for reconstructing the team.
- Ipswich Townaway1:2
- Manchester Unitedhome1:1
- West Ham Unitedaway3:2
- Liverpoolaway0:0
- Crystal Palacehome2:3
Hull City: better league returns, recent defensive leaks
Form at home and on the road
Hull have two wins, three draws and one defeat in the league, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their last five games across competitions, though, produced no wins: three draws and two losses. They followed a 2–1 defeat at Newcastle with a 2–2 home draw against Everton.
Where the balance lies
- Three league clean sheets distinguish their defensive record from Fulham’s.
- Their away league return is one win, one draw and one defeat, with goals level at 4–4.
- They conceded twice in each of their last three league matches.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 each occurred in three of six league games, a limited sample rather than a firm trend.
Absences and returning players
Matt Targett, Nobel Mendy, Mohamed-Ali Cho, Lucas Gourna-Douath and Charlie Hughes will miss the match. Targett has an ankle injury, Mendy and Hughes have groin injuries, and Gourna-Douath has a calf problem. Hughes and Jack Butland have resumed individual training; that does not establish match readiness. No probable XI or formation is provided.
- Evertonhome2:2
- Newcastle Unitedaway1:2
- Chelseaaway2:2
- Sunderlandaway0:1
- Aston Villahome0:0
Two previous meetings, both settled by Fulham
Fulham won both official meetings in the past five years: 1–0 in the Championship in February 2022 and 2–0 in the FA Cup in January 2023. Both were played at Hull. These older encounters offer little direct evidence about the current squads.
- 07.01.2023Hull City0:2FulhamEngland. FA Cup
- 12.02.2022Hull City0:1FulhamEngland. Championship
- 21.08.2021Fulham2:0Hull CityEngland. Championship
- 11.01.2020Hull City0:1FulhamEngland. Championship
- 02.11.2019Fulham0:3Hull CityEngland. Championship
Coaches focus on victory and tempo
Arbeloa says Fulham want a victory to reward their supporters. Sergej Jakirovic describes the trip as difficult and wants a strong performance at high tempo. No separate expert assessments are supplied; neither coach’s comments specify a tactical change.
Our prediction: Fulham to take the points
Our pick is W1 1.77. Hull’s absences are the key reason to favour Fulham at Craven Cottage: according to media reports, Matt Targett, Nobel Mendy, Mohamed-Ali Cho, Lucas Gourna-Douath and Charlie Hughes will all miss the match. These absences reduce the visitors’ options for selection and changes during the game, particularly if they need to sustain the high tempo their coach wants.
Fulham have fewer selection concerns: Hugo Larsson is doubtful with a groin problem, while Arbeloa says everyone else is available. The hosts have scored 5 goals in 3 home league matches, so their attack offers a route to exploiting Hull’s depleted squad. The risk is defensive: Fulham have conceded 7 in those fixtures, making a narrow victory more credible than a comfortable one. Predicted score: 2–1.
Final verdict
W1 1.77 is the selection, chiefly because Fulham have substantially more personnel available. Their defensive record keeps confidence measured rather than strong.
FAQ
When does Fulham — Hull City kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 10:00 (New York), Craven Cottage (London).
What is the prediction for Fulham — Hull City?
Our pick is W1 at 1.77.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Fulham win — 56%, draw — 24%, Hull City win — 20%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Ipswich Townaway1:2
- Manchester Unitedhome1:1
- West Ham Unitedaway3:2
- Liverpoolaway0:0
- Crystal Palacehome2:3
- Evertonhome2:2
- Newcastle Unitedaway1:2
- Chelseaaway2:2
- Sunderlandaway0:1
- Aston Villahome0:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:7 | 9 |
| 19 | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | 2 |
Head-to-head
- 07.01.2023Hull City0:2FulhamEngland. FA Cup
- 12.02.2022Hull City0:1FulhamEngland. Championship
- 21.08.2021Fulham2:0Hull CityEngland. Championship
- 11.01.2020Hull City0:1FulhamEngland. Championship
- 02.11.2019Fulham0:3Hull CityEngland. Championship
About the match
- 17 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Craven Cottage (London)
Odds
Odds updated 15.10 20:10
Market favours the hosts despite the standings
Fulham are favourites in 1X2, with a margin-free home-win probability of 55.7%; the draw is assessed at 24.3% and Hull’s away win at 20%. That is a clearer preference for the hosts than current league results alone suggest. Every listed line has remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours.
The goals markets are less decisive: Over 2.5 carries 54.6% and BTTS 55%. Those modest leans fit the recent concessions on both sides, but sit alongside Hull’s earlier clean sheets and Fulham’s uneven scoring output.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.77
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 56%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.77
- Potential win
- 77 $
- Status
- pending
