Sevilla vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction: La Liga Match Preview
Sevilla
Deportivo AlavesMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.31 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (6) 1.25 pending
Sevilla host Deportivo Alaves at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan in Tour 12 of La Liga. Sevilla are sixth with 17 points, in the European qualification zone; Alaves are eleventh with 12. The five-point gap gives the visitors a chance to close on the European places.
Sevilla: attacking output against a fragile defence
Sevilla’s last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. The results include a 3:3 draw at Levante, a 2:0 home win over Osasuna, a 3:0 cup victory at Sporting Hortaleza, a 1:4 loss at Real Madrid and the latest 1:3 defeat at Getafe. Sevilla conceded in three of the five matches.
Home record and squad picture
Sevilla’s five home league matches produced 3 wins and 2 defeats, with no draws, 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. Across the league season they average 1.55 goals scored and 1.73 conceded; BTTS landed in 8 of 11 fixtures and Over 2.5 goals in 7. They have kept 3 clean sheets. Felix Alexandre Andrade Sanches Correia has 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 appearances; Isaac Romero has 2 goals in 3 matches, while Robbie Ure has 1 goal and 1 assist in 4.
- Sevilla have scored in 5 of their last 5 matches.
- They have lost 10 points from matches in which they led.
- Miguel Sierra is doubtful after a shoulder dislocation; no confirmed starting lineup or suspension has been announced.
Sevilla began the campaign with wins over Rayo Vallecano and Athletic Bilbao before their points return became less consistent. Luis Garcia Plaza now faces his former club.
- Getafeaway1:3
- AD Sporting Hortalezaaway3:0
- Osasunahome2:0
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Levante UDaway3:3
Alaves: away problems and a declining points return
Alaves have gone seven matches without a win: two draws and five defeats, with 3 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their latest outing ended in a 1:6 defeat at Barcelona, following losses to Atletico Madrid and Celta and a 1:1 draw with Malaga. Their only clean sheet in this sequence came in the 0:0 draw at Athletic Bilbao. They are also credited with scoring in four of those five games.
Table position, away numbers and availability
Alaves have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats in the league, averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. BTTS landed in 7 of 11 matches, Over 2.5 goals in 6, and they kept 3 clean sheets. Away from home, they have two draws and three defeats from five trips, scoring 4 goals and conceding 11. Mariano Diaz, Aitor Manas and Hugo Novoa Ramos have each scored once in the tournament, with Diaz also providing an assist.
- Alaves took 10 points from the opening four rounds, then only 2 from their last 7 matches.
- They have scored 4 goals and conceded 11 in five away trips.
- Lucas Boye is doubtful after a training issue; Kike Sanchez Flores has yet to confirm his lineup.
Kike Sanchez Flores returns to the club that dismissed him during the 2023-24 season.
- Barcelonaaway1:6
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
Head-to-head record gives Alaves recent leverage
Across 10 official meetings in the last five years, Sevilla have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4. In the latest eight encounters, Alaves recorded 3 wins and Sevilla 1, with 4 draws. Those eight matches are listed as producing 11 goals for Sevilla and 13 for Alaves, an average of 3 goals per game.
At Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, the latest two league meetings finished 1:1 and 1:1; the most recent home fixture was a draw. Sevilla’s last victory in this sequence came away from home.
- 14.02.2026Sevilla1:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 17.12.2025Deportivo Alaves1:0SevillaSpain Copa del Rey
- 20.09.2025Deportivo Alaves1:2SevillaSpain. La Liga
- 20.04.2025Sevilla1:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 20.09.2024Deportivo Alaves2:1SevillaSpain. La Liga
Team news, motivation and coaching angles
Sevilla lost a lead in their latest defeat at Getafe. They have already faced all three leading Spanish clubs, according to media reports, and now meet an opponent below them in the table.
Alaves’ staff have pointed to their recent head-to-head advantage, according to media reports. That record contrasts with their current winless run and away results.
Our prediction: Sevilla’s scoring threshold
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.43. Sevilla have scored in all five recent matches and average 1.55 goals per league game this season. Alaves have conceded 11 goals in five away fixtures, making the hosts’ scoring return a stronger betting angle than their ability to protect a lead. Sevilla have already dropped 10 points from winning positions; this selection does not require them to win.
The threshold still needs caution: Sevilla have scored seven goals in five home league games, while six of Alaves’ away goals conceded came at Barcelona. That heavy defeat should not define expectations by itself. Even so, the hosts need just two goals for the bet to win, with exactly one returning the stake. According to media reports, winger Miguel Sierra is doubtful with a shoulder injury, which could reduce Sevilla’s attacking options. The projected score is 2:1.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.43 targets Sevilla’s attack without relying on their defence or the match result. The one-goal refund offers protection if their finishing falls short of the two-goal target.
FAQ
When does Sevilla — Deportivo Alaves kick off?
The match starts on 06.11.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan (Seville).
What is the prediction for Sevilla — Deportivo Alaves?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.43.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Sevilla win — 51%, draw — 28%, Deportivo Alaves win — 21%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Getafeaway1:3
- AD Sporting Hortalezaaway3:0
- Osasunahome2:0
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Levante UDaway3:3
- Barcelonaaway1:6
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 | Celta | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alaves | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:20 | 12 |
Head-to-head
- 14.02.2026Sevilla1:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 17.12.2025Deportivo Alaves1:0SevillaSpain Copa del Rey
- 20.09.2025Deportivo Alaves1:2SevillaSpain. La Liga
- 20.04.2025Sevilla1:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 20.09.2024Deportivo Alaves2:1SevillaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 6 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan (Seville)
- Weather: 19° · precip. 0% · wind 0.7 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 12:10
Market view and expected match profile
The market makes Sevilla favourites with a 48% probability of a home win. The draw is assessed at 28.4% and an Alaves win at 23.6%. The 1X2 line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 56.9%, against 43.2% for Over. BTTS — No has a narrow edge at 51.8%, compared with 48.2% for Yes. Sevilla’s scoring run and BTTS frequency challenge that lower-scoring assessment, while Alaves’ away scoring record supports it. Neither goals market has shown meaningful line movement.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.43
- Odds at prediction
- 1.42
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.41
- Potential win
- 41 $
- Status
- pending
