Toulouse vs Strasbourg: Ligue 1 Match Prediction
Toulouse
StrasbourgMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.33 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5) 1.3 pending
Toulouse host Strasbourg at Municipal in the tenth Ligue 1 round, with both clubs on 10 points after nine matches. Toulouse are twelfth and Strasbourg thirteenth, placing two lower-half teams against each other.
Toulouse: cautious results, limited home output
Recent form and team profile
Toulouse have taken one win, two draws and two losses in their last five matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7. The sequence included a 3:0 away win at Le Mans, a 0:0 home draw with Troyes and a 0:2 defeat at Marseille. In Ligue 1, their record is two wins, four draws and three defeats, with 12 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home, they have one win, one draw and two defeats, with 3 goals for and 5 against.
- Toulouse have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- They have kept league clean sheets against Le Mans and Troyes AC in their last three league fixtures, but not against Olympique de Marseille.
- Three home goals in 4 league matches indicate a low attacking ceiling at Municipal.
- Casper Tengstedt, Aron Donnum and Jacen Russell-Rowe have one league goal each among the listed leading players.
Donnum is suspended after accumulating yellow cards and will miss the match; Rafiq Messali is also unavailable because of injury, according to media reports. Donnum’s absence removes one of the team’s listed leading contributors. The club is negotiating a contract extension with goalkeeper Guillaume Restes.
- Olympique de Marseilleaway0:2
- Troyes AChome0:0
- Le Mansaway3:0
- AS Monacoaway2:2
- Pauhome2:3
Strasbourg: greater attacking volume, exposed defence
Recent form and away pattern
Strasbourg have lost four of their last five matches, but the latest 5:1 home victory over Auxerre ended a run of defeats against Paris, Nice, Paris Saint-Germain and Rennes. Across that sequence they scored 8 and conceded 11, finding the net in 4 games and conceding in all 5. Their league totals are higher than Toulouse’s: 17 goals scored and 19 conceded, with both teams scoring in 7 of 9 matches and Over 2.5 goals in 8 of 9.
The away record is the main concern. Strasbourg have one win and four defeats in five league away matches, scoring 8 and conceding 13, with no draw. They have not recorded a league clean sheet in nine games. Gessime Yassine and Dario Essugo lead the listed scorers with two goals each; Yassine also has two assists, while Giovanni Reyna has one goal.
- Strasbourg’s league attack averages 1.89 goals per match.
- The defence allows 2.11 goals per league match.
- Both teams scored in 7 of 9 league fixtures.
- The 5:1 win over Auxerre supplied attacking momentum after four straight defeats.
Martial Godo is preparing to return to the squad, and Strasbourg have agreed a new contract with midfielder El Mourabet, according to media reports.
- Auxerrehome5:1
- Stade Rennaisaway0:3
- Paris Saint-Germainhome1:3
- Niceaway1:2
- Parisaway1:2
Head-to-head record favours neither side decisively
Across the last eight official meetings, Toulouse have three wins, Strasbourg have three and two ended level. Toulouse scored 9 goals and Strasbourg 10, while the results remained balanced. The most recent meeting ended with a 2:1 Toulouse win away from home, while the previous fixture at Municipal finished 1:0 for Toulouse.
At Toulouse’s ground over the listed period, each side has one win and there have been two draws across four matches. Three of those four games produced no more than two total goals, contrasting with Strasbourg’s open league profile this season.
- 03.05.2026Strasbourg1:2ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 06.12.2025Toulouse1:0StrasbourgFrance. Ligue 1
- 16.03.2025Strasbourg2:1ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 12.01.2025Toulouse1:2StrasbourgFrance. Ligue 1
- 07.04.2024Toulouse0:0StrasbourgFrance. Ligue 1
Team news and current motivation
Both clubs have 10 points, but their routes differ. Toulouse have drawn four of nine league matches and conceded 13 goals, while Strasbourg have won three and lost five with a higher scoring total and a weaker defensive record. Toulouse are without Donnum and Messali; Strasbourg could have Godo available after his return process.
Toulouse are negotiating with Restes over a contract extension. Strasbourg arrive after a 5:1 league win and have secured a new deal for El Mourabet.
Our Forecast
Toulouse host Strasbourg in the tenth Ligue 1 round with both clubs on 10 points after nine matches. Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) за 1.31. The line requires Toulouse to score at least twice, and the matchup provides a clear route to that target: Strasbourg have conceded 19 goals in nine league games, an average of 2.11 per match, and have kept zero clean sheets. Their away record is especially vulnerable, with 13 goals conceded in five matches.
Toulouse’s home scoring numbers are modest, but the opponent’s defensive profile carries greater weight here. Strasbourg have conceded in all five of their latest matches and in every league fixture this season, while Toulouse have scored twice in each of their last two victories over this opponent. The suspension of Aron Donnum removes one attacking option, yet the hosts still have the venue advantage and face a defence that recently allowed three goals at Rennes and five at home to Auxerre. A likely score is 2:1 to Toulouse.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) is the recommended selection. Strasbourg’s 19 conceded goals, zero clean sheets and 13 goals allowed away from home make two Toulouse goals a realistic threshold.
FAQ
When does Toulouse — Strasbourg kick off?
The match starts on 06.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Municipal (Toulouse).
What is the prediction for Toulouse — Strasbourg?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.31.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Toulouse win — 44%, draw — 25%, Strasbourg win — 31%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Olympique de Marseilleaway0:2
- Troyes AChome0:0
- Le Mansaway3:0
- AS Monacoaway2:2
- Pauhome2:3
- Auxerrehome5:1
- Stade Rennaisaway0:3
- Paris Saint-Germainhome1:3
- Niceaway1:2
- Parisaway1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lorient | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13:23 | 10 |
Head-to-head
- 03.05.2026Strasbourg1:2ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 06.12.2025Toulouse1:0StrasbourgFrance. Ligue 1
- 16.03.2025Strasbourg2:1ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 12.01.2025Toulouse1:2StrasbourgFrance. Ligue 1
- 07.04.2024Toulouse0:0StrasbourgFrance. Ligue 1
About the match
- 6 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Municipal (Toulouse)
- Weather: 7° · precip. 0% · wind 0.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 12:10
Market structure and likely betting logic
The market makes Toulouse the favourite in the 1X2 line, assigning the home win a 47.2% probability against 24.6% for the draw and 28.2% for the away win. The hosts benefit from home advantage, the table position and the latest head-to-head result, but their four-match home league record and Donnum’s suspension limit the margin.
Goals are rated more likely than not: Over 2.5 carries a 59.4% market probability, while BTTS Yes is at 61.6%. Strasbourg’s 19 conceded goals and seven BTTS matches support an open game, although Toulouse’s 3 home goals in four league fixtures provide a counterweight.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.31
- Odds at prediction
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 75%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Status
- pending