Valencia vs Real Madrid: La Liga Match Prediction
Valencia
Real MadridValencia host Real Madrid at Mestalla in the twelfth round of La Liga, sitting nineteenth with 9 points. Madrid are third with 27, three behind Barcelona, and can temporarily move level with the leaders.
Valencia: improved result, weak home profile
Recent form and tactical setup
Valencia’s last five matches brought one win, two draws and two defeats. They scored in four and conceded in three, most recently winning 1:0 away at Elche. Their home league record is two draws and four defeats in six matches, with 3 goals scored and 11 conceded. The clean sheet at Elche followed three home matches without a victory.
Javier Aguirre is preparing a system with three central defenders to restrict Madrid’s overloads on the flanks. Umar Sadiq is expected to return to the starting lineup after a two-month absence with a muscle bruise. Sergi Canos and Diego Lopez Noguerol are unavailable with knee injuries.
David Otorbi, Sadiq and Daniel Raba have one league goal each. Valencia have scored only 8 times in eleven rounds.
- Valencia average 0.73 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per league match.
- BTTS (both teams to score) occurred in 4 of 11 league games.
- Valencia have kept 4 clean sheets.
- Elcheaway1:0
- Villarrealhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome0:0
- Racing de Santanderaway2:2
- Real Sociedadhome2:3
Real Madrid: attacking rhythm and title pressure
Recent form, structure and squad news
Madrid have won their last five matches. Those results include away victories over Barcelona, Racing de Santander and AEK Athens, plus home wins against Sevilla and Leipzig. They scored in all five and conceded in four. Their overall winning run across all competitions stands at seven matches.
In the league, Madrid have scored 28 goals and conceded 10, winning 9 of 11 matches.
Vinicius Junior is suspended, while Rodrygo and Raul Asencio remain out as they recover. Ferland Mendy is training with the group but will return to the squad only after the international break. Aurelien Tchouameni’s starting place is uncertain. Arda Guler and Federico Valverde are expected to return to the starting lineup, with Konate and Huijsen also expected to be available.
Kylian Mbappe and Yan Diomande lead Madrid’s league scoring with three goals each; Jude Bellingham has one goal and one assist.
- Madrid average 2.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per league match.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in 9 of their 11 league matches.
- Their away record is 4 wins and 2 defeats, with 11 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- AEK Athensaway3:2
- Racing de Santanderaway3:0
- Barcelonaaway2:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome4:1
- Sevillahome4:1
Head-to-head record at Mestalla and beyond
In ten official meetings over the last five years, Valencia have won twice, drawn once and lost seven times.
Madrid won the most recent meeting at Mestalla 2:0; Valencia’s previous three home meetings produced a win, a draw and a defeat. Madrid have kept Valencia scoreless in two of the last four encounters.
- 08.02.2026Valencia0:2Real MadridSpain. La Liga
- 01.11.2025Real Madrid4:0ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 05.04.2025Real Madrid1:2ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 03.01.2025Valencia1:2Real MadridSpain. La Liga
- 02.03.2024Valencia2:2Real MadridSpain. La Liga
Team news, motivation and expert angles
The win at Elche was Valencia’s first under Aguirre. He has publicly said his team will try to beat Madrid despite the difference in status.
Mourinho has expressed irritation at having many quality players whom he cannot field in every match, while specifically addressing lapses in concentration during the opening minutes. He has also acknowledged his respect for Aguirre’s experience and philosophy.
Our Forecast
Valencia host Real Madrid at Mestalla in La Liga. Valencia are 19th with 9 points, while Madrid are third with 27, three points behind Barcelona. Our selection is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.3.
Madrid have scored 28 goals in 11 league matches, averaging 2.55 per game. Valencia have conceded 17, including 11 in six home fixtures. Madrid have won each of their last five matches. Vinicius Junior is suspended and Rodrygo remains injured, but Mbappe, Bellingham and Diomande remain among Madrid’s leading scorers this season. The expected return of Guler and Valverde adds further options in attack.
Madrid won the latest visit to Mestalla 2:0 and have won seven of their last ten official meetings with Valencia. Valencia have scored 8 league goals, compared with Madrid’s 28, so the visitors can reach two goals without an open game from both sides. Expected score: 0:2.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.3 is supported by Madrid’s five-match scoring run, 2.55 league-goal average and Valencia’s 11 home goals conceded. The expected outcome is at least two goals from Madrid.
FAQ
When does Valencia — Real Madrid kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Mestalla (Valencia).
What is the prediction for Valencia — Real Madrid?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.3.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Valencia win — 9%, draw — 16%, Real Madrid win — 74%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Elcheaway1:0
- Villarrealhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome0:0
- Racing de Santanderaway2:2
- Real Sociedadhome2:3
- AEK Athensaway3:2
- Racing de Santanderaway3:0
- Barcelonaaway2:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome4:1
- Sevillahome4:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 18 | Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 08.02.2026Valencia0:2Real MadridSpain. La Liga
- 01.11.2025Real Madrid4:0ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 05.04.2025Real Madrid1:2ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 03.01.2025Valencia1:2Real MadridSpain. La Liga
- 02.03.2024Valencia2:2Real MadridSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 7 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Mestalla (Valencia)
- Weather: 16° · precip. 0% · wind 1.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 15:10
Market view and goal expectations
The 1X2 market assigns Madrid a 74.1% probability of an away win, Valencia 9.5% for a home win and the draw 16.5%. There has been no notable movement in the last twenty-four hours.
In the Over/Under 3.5 goals market, Over stands at 45.7% and Under at 54.3%. BTTS is marginally favoured at 53.5%, against 46.5% for No.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
