Forecast: Malaga — Racing de Santander in Spain La Liga
Malaga
Racing de SantanderMalaga host Racing de Santander at La Rosaleda in the twelfth round of La Liga. Both are near the relegation zone: Malaga are twentieth with five points and no league win after eleven matches; Racing are sixteenth with eleven points. A victory could lift Racing as high as ninth.
Malaga: home pressure and defensive problems
Malaga’s last five matches produced one win, two draws and two defeats. They scored in all five. Their latest result was a 1:2 defeat away to Real Betis.
In eleven league rounds, Malaga have scored eight goals and conceded twenty-one, keeping just one clean sheet. At home, they have drawn three and lost two, scoring five and conceding ten.
Profile, key players and availability
- Adrian Nino is Malaga’s leading league scorer with four goals in four appearances.
- Pablo Martinez Andres has one goal and one assist in two matches, but trained only partially on Wednesday while recovering from plantar fasciitis.
- Joaquin Munoz completed the full team session and could return.
- David Larrubia is one booking away from suspension.
- Real Betisaway1:2
- Sporting Alcazaraway3:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway1:1
- Real Sociedadhome2:5
- Espanyolhome1:1
Racing de Santander: more points, poorer away record
Racing have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches. They scored in three and conceded in four. Their latest game ended in a 0:3 home defeat to Real Madrid.
Racing have scored fifteen league goals but conceded twenty-nine.
Away weakness and squad situation
- Racing have lost all five league away matches, scoring four and conceding eighteen.
- Over 2.5 goals were recorded in nine of their eleven league fixtures.
- Yassir Zabiri leads the listed scorers with two goals in four appearances.
- Andres Martin is out with a left hamstring tear; goalkeeper Simon Eriksson has recovered from tendonitis and is expected to be available.
- Pablo Ramon and Yassir Zabiri are both one booking away from suspension.
- Real Madridhome0:3
- Ribadesellaaway2:0
- Espanyolhome2:1
- Osasunaaway0:2
- Valenciahome2:2
Previous meetings favour Racing
The teams have met six times in official matches over the last five years, with three draws and three Racing victories. The matches produced twelve goals, exactly two per game: Malaga scored twice and Racing ten.
The latest meeting, at La Rosaleda on 24 May 2026, finished 1:1. The two previous matches at Malaga’s ground ended 0:1 and 0:0, leaving Malaga with one goal in their last three home meetings with Racing.
- 24.05.2026Malaga1:1Racing de SantanderSpain. Segunda Division
- 05.10.2025Racing de Santander3:0MalagaSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.02.2025Racing de Santander2:1MalagaSpain. Segunda Division
- 23.11.2024Malaga0:0Racing de SantanderSpain. Segunda Division
- 05.03.2023Malaga0:1Racing de SantanderSpain. Segunda Division
Team news, motivation and current context
Munoz’s return would add an option for Malaga, while Martinez’s partial training leaves his involvement in doubt. Larrubia’s disciplinary position may influence selection.
Racing’s camp has focused on the disputed penalty decision against Real Madrid, with Jose Alberto Lopez criticising the officiating. Martin’s absence removes an attacking option; no other injuries or suspensions are listed.
Our pick: Malaga to find the net
Malaga face Racing de Santander at La Rosaleda seeking their first league win, but our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.38. Racing have conceded 29 goals in 11 league matches without a clean sheet. Their away record is the sharper signal: five defeats and 18 goals conceded. This selection targets that weakness without requiring Malaga to secure all three points.
Malaga have scored in each of their last five matches across all competitions, although five goals in five home league games argue against expecting a rout. According to media reports, Joaquin Munoz completed full training and is a candidate to return, while Pablo Martinez has only trained partially following plantar fasciitis. Two home goals are a measured target against this away defence; our projected score is 2-1.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.38 is preferable to backing a home win because it isolates Racing's defensive weakness. Two or more Malaga goals win the bet, exactly one returns the stake, and none loses it.
FAQ
When does Malaga — Racing de Santander kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 08:00 (New York), La Rosaleda (Malaga).
What is the prediction for Malaga — Racing de Santander?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.38.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Malaga win — 40%, draw — 26%, Racing de Santander win — 34%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Real Betisaway1:2
- Sporting Alcazaraway3:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway1:1
- Real Sociedadhome2:5
- Espanyolhome1:1
- Real Madridhome0:3
- Ribadesellaaway2:0
- Espanyolhome2:1
- Osasunaaway0:2
- Valenciahome2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing de Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 | Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 24.05.2026Malaga1:1Racing de SantanderSpain. Segunda Division
- 05.10.2025Racing de Santander3:0MalagaSpain. Segunda Division
- 01.02.2025Racing de Santander2:1MalagaSpain. Segunda Division
- 23.11.2024Malaga0:0Racing de SantanderSpain. Segunda Division
- 05.03.2023Malaga0:1Racing de SantanderSpain. Segunda Division
About the match
- 7 November · 08:00 New York
- Venue: La Rosaleda (Malaga), Malaga
- Weather: 22° · precip. 0% · wind 2.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 08:10
Market view and goal lines
The 1X2 market narrowly favours Malaga at home, with the draw in the middle and Racing close behind. The small gap reflects the contrast between home advantage and league position, with neither side having won in the relevant home or away fixtures. There has been no notable line movement in the last twenty-four hours.
The goal market leans toward Over 2.5, while BTTS Yes is the leading both-teams-to-score option. Current defensive records support that assessment, but Malaga have gone Over 2.5 in only four of eleven league fixtures, and the previous meetings were lower-scoring. The market gives greater weight to the teams’ current defensive weaknesses.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
