Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: La Liga Match Prediction
Osasuna
Athletic BilbaoOsasuna host Athletic Bilbao at El Sadar in the twelfth round of La Liga. Osasuna are fifteenth with 11 points from 11 matches, while Athletic are seventh with 15 points from 10 games. Osasuna need to close the gap to the teams above them; Athletic can strengthen their upper-half position and move closer to the European places.
Osasuna: home resilience against a fragile overall record
Osasuna have taken 11 points from 11 league matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 22. Their recent sequence contains two wins and three defeats: they beat Racing de Santander 2:0 and Atletico Calatayud 6:0, but lost to Real Betis 2:5, Sevilla 0:2 and Deportivo de A Coruna 1:2. They scored in four of those five matches. The latest result was the defeat in A Coruna.
The home split is stronger than the full-season record: two wins, two draws and one loss in five league games, with only three goals conceded. Osasuna have scored four times at home, so control and defensive structure have carried more weight than attacking volume. Their 22 goals conceded is the second-highest total among the teams listed around the lower positions.
Key players, strengths and available information
- Ante Budimir is Osasuna’s leading La Liga scorer with eight goals and is fit.
- Osasuna have avoided defeat in three of five home matches and have conceded only three goals in their league home record.
- The main weakness is defensive reliability across the season, with two goals conceded per match on average.
- Raul Garcia De Haro and Asier Osambela have one league goal each.
Budimir is the key attacking reference.
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:2
- Atletico Calatayudaway6:0
- Sevillaaway0:2
- Racing de Santanderhome2:0
- Real Betisaway2:5
Athletic Bilbao: stronger momentum and a more balanced profile
Athletic Bilbao have collected four wins, three draws and three defeats in ten league matches. Their goal balance is 14:10, and they have kept five clean sheets. In the last five matches they recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat, scoring in four. Their current run is three consecutive victories: 4:0 against Getafe, 6:1 against AE Prat and 2:1 against Real Sociedad.
The away league record is less convincing than the overall form: one win, one draw and two defeats, with three goals scored and five conceded. That reduces the gap between the teams in this venue context. Athletic have produced more goals over the season, while five clean sheets in ten league matches indicate a steadier defensive base than Osasuna’s.
Attacking options, defensive figures and team news
- Inaki Williams has scored two league goals.
- Alex Berenguer has one goal and three assists, making him the most productive listed creator.
- Yuri Berchiche has one goal in three appearances.
- Athletic have scored in four of their last five matches and conceded in three.
Unai Simon’s development as a goalkeeper fits Athletic’s clean-sheet record.
- Real Sociedadhome2:1
- AE Prataway6:1
- Getafehome4:0
- Levante UDaway1:3
- Valenciaaway0:0
Head-to-head record points to narrow margins
Across 13 official meetings in the last five years, Osasuna have won three, drawn five and lost five. In the eight most recent official encounters, Osasuna recorded two wins, three draws and three defeats. The latest meeting ended Athletic Bilbao 1:0 Osasuna.
Recent fixtures have usually been decided by small margins. Of those eight meetings, four finished with a clean sheet for one side, while three ended level. At El Sadar in the listed series, Osasuna beat Athletic 2:0 in May 2023, then lost 0:2 and 1:2, before drawing 1:1 in January 2026. The head-to-head record supports a competitive match rather than a clear historical advantage.
- 21.04.2026Athletic Bilbao1:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 03.01.2026Osasuna1:1Athletic BilbaoSpain. La Liga
- 04.09.2025Athletic Bilbao0:1OsasunaClub Friendlies
- 30.03.2025Athletic Bilbao0:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 16.01.2025Athletic Bilbao2:3OsasunaSpain Copa del Rey
Available news and motivation before kickoff
Osasuna’s immediate motivation is tied to their poor league position and away defeats to Sevilla and Deportivo de A Coruna, separated by an away win over Atletico Calatayud, after the home win over Racing. Their home record offers a practical route back into the match: avoid an open contest, protect the penalty area and use Budimir more efficiently than the season average of one goal per league game.
Athletic arrive after a 2:1 win over Real Sociedad and three victories in succession, but their away league record contains two defeats from four matches. Budimir is ready for Osasuna. Unai Simon’s form provides context for Athletic’s goalkeeping stability, not a confirmed tactical alteration.
Our pick for El Sadar
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) 1.25. Athletic Bilbao need just one goal, rather than an away victory. Their three consecutive wins and goals in four of their last five matches support that narrower target. With 14 goals in ten league games, the visitors have enough attacking output to threaten Osasuna without needing a high-scoring contest.
The main risk is the venue: Osasuna have conceded only three goals in five home league matches, while Athletic have scored three in four away fixtures. That makes a single visiting goal a more measured target than a larger total. Osasuna’s overall concession rate of two per league match still leaves an opening, and Athletic scored in six of the eight latest official meetings between these clubs. A plausible score is 1:1.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) 1.25 is our selection: Athletic’s recent scoring frequency supports one goal, while Osasuna’s stronger home defence argues against demanding more.
FAQ
When does Osasuna — Athletic Bilbao kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 12:30 (New York), El Sadar (Pamplona).
What is the prediction for Osasuna — Athletic Bilbao?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.25.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Osasuna win — 27%, draw — 28%, Athletic Bilbao win — 45%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:2
- Atletico Calatayudaway6:0
- Sevillaaway0:2
- Racing de Santanderhome2:0
- Real Betisaway2:5
- Real Sociedadhome2:1
- AE Prataway6:1
- Getafehome4:0
- Levante UDaway1:3
- Valenciaaway0:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing de Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15:29 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 21.04.2026Athletic Bilbao1:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 03.01.2026Osasuna1:1Athletic BilbaoSpain. La Liga
- 04.09.2025Athletic Bilbao0:1OsasunaClub Friendlies
- 30.03.2025Athletic Bilbao0:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 16.01.2025Athletic Bilbao2:3OsasunaSpain Copa del Rey
About the match
- 7 November · 12:30 New York
- Venue: El Sadar (Pamplona)
- Weather: 15° · precip. 0% · wind 1.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 12:40
Market view and goal lines
The market makes Athletic Bilbao the clear favorite, assigning the away win a 45.2% probability. Osasuna’s home win is rated at 26.9%, while the draw stands at 27.9%. The line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours, so the market is stable rather than reacting to late team news.
The goal market is more cautious: Under 2.5 goals carries a 54.6% probability against 45.4% for Over 2.5. Both teams to score is close to balanced, with “Yes” at 50.8% and “No” at 49.2%. Osasuna have a low home scoring total and Athletic have five clean sheets, while both teams have scored in four of their last five matches.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (0.5)
- Current odds
- 1.25
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 75%
- Market estimate
- 75%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
