Crystal Palace vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: UEFA Europa League Prediction
Crystal Palace
TSG 1899 HoffenheimCrystal Palace host TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at Selhurst Park in the fourth round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Both teams are outside the leading positions: Palace have four points from three matches, while Hoffenheim have three. The result matters in the fight to remain close to the qualifying places, with Palace carrying the stronger home record and Hoffenheim trying to recover from consecutive defeats.
Crystal Palace: home advantage against a fragile backdrop
Recent form and tournament position
Palace have won only one of their last five matches, drawing once and losing three times. They scored three goals and conceded eleven across that sequence, scoring in only two games and conceding in at least one in four. The latest result was a 0:2 defeat away to Tottenham, following a 1:0 win at Fulham and a 0:2 home loss to Newcastle.
The Europa League record is stronger than the overall run: eight goals scored and five conceded in three matches, with both teams scoring in two and Over 2.5 goals landing in all three. At Selhurst Park, Palace have won their only tournament match, scoring four without conceding. They sit fifteenth with four points.
Playing profile and available personnel
- Attack: eight tournament goals, with Yeremy Pino leading the team with two; Jean-Philippe Mateta and Daichi Kamada have one each.
- Defensive trend: one clean sheet in three Europa League matches, while Crystal Palace conceded 11 goals in their last five domestic and cup games.
- Home factor: four goals scored and none conceded in the sole home fixture of this competition.
- Risk area: Mateta is suspended after a straight red card against Tottenham, reducing the most direct central-finishing option.
Mateta will miss the match through suspension, while Chadi Riad and Takehiro Tomiyasu are unavailable with injuries. Head coach Pierre Sage does not intend to risk key players before the international break, which could affect the intensity and balance of the starting lineup. A probable formation and complete starting eleven are not confirmed.
- Tottenham Hotspuraway0:2
- Fulhamaway1:0
- Newcastle Unitedhome0:2
- Besiktasaway2:2
- Brighton & Hove Albionaway0:5
Hoffenheim: a sharper recent record, but weak European away numbers
Results, scoring and league-phase pressure
Hoffenheim have taken three wins and two defeats from their last five matches. They scored nine and conceded five, finding the net in four games and keeping two clean sheets. Their sequence included three consecutive victories, but the current run has turned into two defeats: a cup loss away to Holstein and a 0:2 Bundesliga defeat at Werder Bremen.
The European record is weaker than the recent domestic run. Hoffenheim have five goals for and five against in three league-phase matches, with both teams scoring in one and Over 2.5 goals in two. Their only tournament away match ended in defeat without a goal scored, while the team occupies twenty-third place with three points. The latest European success was a 3:0 home win over Lyon, after two opening defeats.
Strengths, weaknesses and squad news
- Recent attacking output: nine goals in the last five matches, with Andrej Kramaric contributing one goal and two assists in the tournament.
- Defensive capacity: clean sheets against Lyon and Bayer Leverkusen show a high ceiling, but three goals conceded in the other three recent games show inconsistency.
- Away concern: no goal in the only Europa League away fixture and two losses in the last two away matches overall.
- European availability: Luis Engels is ineligible for Europa League matches, while several injured players are also absent.
Albian Hajdari, Patrick Wimmer, Nathan De Cat and Robin Hranac are out with injuries; Luis Engels is unavailable because of a European suspension. Hoffenheim’s motivation is shaped by a poor start in the competition followed by the 3:0 win over Lyon, although the 0:2 defeat to Werder leaves them needing a response. A confirmed formation and full starting lineup are not supplied.
- Werder Bremenaway0:2
- Holsteinaway1:2
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome3:0
- Lyonhome3:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway2:1
Team news and competitive context
Palace face the more immediate attacking loss because Mateta is suspended after the Tottenham match, and the defensive absences of Riad and Tomiyasu further reduce continuity. The plan to protect key players adds a selection variable to a team that has scored in only two of its last five matches.
Hoffenheim arrive with the better overall five-match record, yet their European away sample contains a defeat and no goal. Their injury list is longer, including defensive and attacking options, while Engel’s ineligibility removes another squad choice.
Our pick: Crystal Palace to avoid defeat
In the Europa League, Crystal Palace welcome Hoffenheim to Selhurst Park with both clubs outside the leading positions: Palace have four points from three matches, while Hoffenheim have three. Our bet is Handicap 1 (0) 1.36. The Asian handicap returns the stake if the match ends level, which is valuable in a fixture where the market gives the hosts a 50% home-win probability, compared with 23.9% for a draw and 26.1% for an away victory.
Palace’s recent results are poor, with one win, one draw and three defeats in five matches, but their European home record is stronger: one match, one victory, four goals scored and none conceded. Hoffenheim have lost their only away game in this league phase and now arrive after two consecutive defeats. Both teams have absences, yet the visitors lose Patrick Wimmer, while Palace’s suspension of Jean-Philippe Mateta is partly offset by home advantage and the safety of a draw on this line. The expected score is 1:0, which fits the selected handicap.
Conclusion
Handicap 1 (0) 1.36 is the preferred position: Palace have the stronger league-phase home profile, while Hoffenheim’s European away record remains weak. A draw preserves the stake, and a narrow Crystal Palace win is the main outcome.
FAQ
When does Crystal Palace — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
The match starts on 05.11.2026 at 12:45 (New York), Selhurst Park (London).
What is the prediction for Crystal Palace — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.36.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Crystal Palace win — 54%, draw — 23%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win — 23%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Tottenham Hotspuraway0:2
- Fulhamaway1:0
- Newcastle Unitedhome0:2
- Besiktasaway2:2
- Brighton & Hove Albionaway0:5
- Werder Bremenaway0:2
- Holsteinaway1:2
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome3:0
- Lyonhome3:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 14 | FC Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | AC Sparta Prague | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 | Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:5 | 3 |
About the match
- 5 November · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Selhurst Park (London), London
- Weather: 10° · precip. 0% · wind 3.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 05.11 09:10
Market view and goal expectations
Palace are the market favourite, with the home-win probability at 50%, compared with 23.9% for a draw and 26.1% for an away win. The market assigns the London side a clear but not overwhelming advantage, consistent with their perfect home tournament record and Hoffenheim’s unsuccessful European away start. The line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
The goal markets lean toward a controlled total: Under 3.5 is assessed at 59.8%, while Over 3.5 stands at 40.3%. BTTS Yes is favoured at 62.4%, supported by Palace’s tournament scoring figures and Hoffenheim’s ability to score in four of their last five matches, though Palace’s recent two-scoreless-match pattern and Mateta’s suspension temper that signal.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.36
- Odds at prediction
- 1.46
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 65%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
