VHL Forecast: AKM Tula Oblast vs Neftyanik Almetyevsk
AKM Tula Oblast
Neftyanik AlmetyevskMore picks
- Period 3: No draw 1.37 pending
AKM host Neftyanik at Novyy ledovyy dvorets in Tula on November 5, with one point separating fourth from third in the VHL. The visitors have played two fewer games. Both remain within five points of leaders Omskiye Krylya.
AKM: home response after a difficult road stretch
Form, scoring and defensive balance
AKM have two wins and three defeats in their last five games, scoring 10 goals and conceding 13. The four away fixtures produced one victory and a 7–13 goal balance, while their only home appearance in that sequence ended with a shutout against Bars. That contrast is useful, but one home game cannot establish a lasting venue advantage.
- Season scoring: 61 goals in 21 games, averaging 2.90.
- Season defence: 48 conceded, averaging 2.29 per game.
- Recent attacking floor: one goal combined against Dynamo Saint Petersburg and SKA-VMF.
Selection and preparation
AKM last played on November 2, leaving two full days between games and no change of match city. That is a modest preparation advantage rather than evidence of superior fitness.
- Bars Kazanhome3:0
- SKA-VMFaway0:5
- Dynamo Saint Petersburgaway1:2
- Zvezda Moscowaway3:4
- Khimik Voskresenskaway3:2
Neftyanik: narrow wins built on low concessions
Five victories with a controlled goal count
Neftyanik have won all five recent matches, scoring 12 and allowing six. Every victory came by one or two goals: their success has depended on keeping opponents close to a single goal rather than building large attacking margins. The two away wins produced four goals scored and only one conceded.
- Season defence: 34 conceded in 19 games, averaging 1.79.
- Season attack: 53 goals, averaging 2.79 per game.
- Recent totals: three of five matches finished below 4.5 goals.
Road schedule and recovery
The visitors played in Ryazan on November 3 and now move to Tula, leaving one full intervening day. Their previous match had been on October 25.
- Ryazan-VDVaway2:1
- Bars Kazanaway2:0
- CSK VVS Samarahome3:2
- SKA-VMFhome2:1
- Dynamo Saint Petersburghome3:2
Head-to-head: a close record, often higher totals
AKM lead the official five-year series by seven wins to six. Neftyanik won the latest meeting 2–1 in January, ending three consecutive AKM victories. Across the eight listed encounters, six games exceeded 4.5 goals and both sides scored in all eight.
That scoring history contrasts with Neftyanik's recent lower-total pattern. Four of those eight meetings belonged to the April 2024 playoff series, so the average spans different competitive settings rather than describing one current matchup.
- 28.01.2026Neftyanik Almetyevsk2:1AKM Tula OblastVHL
- 27.10.2025AKM Tula Oblast4:3Neftyanik AlmetyevskVHL
- 07.02.2025AKM Tula Oblast5:2Neftyanik AlmetyevskVHL
- 14.10.2024Neftyanik Almetyevsk2:4AKM Tula OblastVHL
- 23.04.2024Neftyanik Almetyevsk3:2AKM Tula OblastVHL (Play-off)
News: coaching comment without a tactical explanation
AKM head coach Sergei Dushkin commented after the October 26 defeat. Neftyanik announced their departure for the away trip on November 1.
First-period prediction
Our pick is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.27. Neftyanik’s five straight wins have been built on defensive control, while AKM’s latest home outing ended 3:0 against Bars. That combination favours an opening period in which at least one side fails to score, rather than requiring either team to keep a clean sheet throughout.
The visitors conceded just once across their last two away games, a more relevant signal for this selection than their winning streak alone. Still, full-game results do not establish a first-period scoring trend: no period-by-period breakdown is available, and injuries, suspensions and projected lineups are unconfirmed. The pick therefore rests on recent defensive execution, not an assumed personnel advantage. A possible first-period score is 0:0.
Betting verdict
Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.27 is our selection because it allows for an early goal without requiring a scoreless period. The main risk is a quick exchange of goals; the recent defensive results support opposing that scenario, but do not eliminate it.
FAQ
When does AKM Tula Oblast — Neftyanik Almetyevsk kick off?
The match starts on 05.11.2026 at 11:00 (New York), Novyy ledovyy dvorets (Tula).
What is the prediction for AKM Tula Oblast — Neftyanik Almetyevsk?
Our pick is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No at 1.27.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: AKM Tula Oblast win — 38%, draw — 24%, Neftyanik Almetyevsk win — 38%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Bars Kazanhome3:0
- SKA-VMFaway0:5
- Dynamo Saint Petersburgaway1:2
- Zvezda Moscowaway3:4
- Khimik Voskresenskaway3:2
- Ryazan-VDVaway2:1
- Bars Kazanaway2:0
- CSK VVS Samarahome3:2
- SKA-VMFhome2:1
- Dynamo Saint Petersburghome3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Norilsk | 22 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 57:47 | 32 |
| 3 | Neftyanik Almetyevsk | 19 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 53:34 | 30 |
| 4 | AKM Tula Oblast | 21 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 61:48 | 29 |
| 5 | Molot Perm | 19 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 56:32 | 28 |
Head-to-head
- 28.01.2026Neftyanik Almetyevsk2:1AKM Tula OblastVHL
- 27.10.2025AKM Tula Oblast4:3Neftyanik AlmetyevskVHL
- 07.02.2025AKM Tula Oblast5:2Neftyanik AlmetyevskVHL
- 14.10.2024Neftyanik Almetyevsk2:4AKM Tula OblastVHL
- 23.04.2024Neftyanik Almetyevsk3:2AKM Tula OblastVHL (Play-off)
About the match
- 5 November · 11:00 New York
- Venue: Novyy ledovyy dvorets (Tula)
Odds
Odds updated 05.11 00:10
Market: virtually level in regulation
The 1X2 market assigns Neftyanik 38.1% and AKM 38%, making the visitors nominal favourites by just 0.1 percentage points. The draw accounts for 23.9%. Over the past 24 hours, support has moved towards AKM and away from Neftyanik, while the draw line has remained broadly unchanged.
Over 4.5 goals carries a 51.2% probability against 48.8% for Under, a near-even split between the contrasting scoring patterns. BTTS (both teams to score) is assessed at 80.5%. Neither scoring market has shown a notable line movement.
Our prediction
- Market
- Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No
- Current odds
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.27
- Potential win
- 27 $
- Status
- pending
