Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes AC forecast: Ligue 1 analysis
Paris Saint-Germain
Troyes ACParis Saint-Germain host Troyes AC at Parc des Princes in Tour 10 of Ligue 1. The leaders can extend their advantage at the top, while Troyes are sixteenth and need points to move away from the relegation zone. The teams are separated by 12 points after nine matches.
Paris Saint-Germain: attacking momentum and home questions
Recent form and playing profile
Paris Saint-Germain have won their last five matches, scoring 20 goals and conceding 4: a 6:0 victory at Villarreal, a 5:1 win at Le Havre, a 2:0 home success against Lyon, a 4:2 home win over Barcelona and a 3:1 result at Strasbourg. They scored in all five games and kept two clean sheets. In Ligue 1, they have scored 21 goals and conceded 10 across nine matches; both teams scored in 7 fixtures and more than 2.5 goals were recorded in 7. Their home league record is weaker: 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 8 goals for and 5 against in four matches.
Strengths, weaknesses and personnel
- PSG have scored 21 league goals, averaging 2.33 per match.
- They have scored 20 goals in their last five games.
- They have kept only 2 clean sheets in Ligue 1.
- Home production is lower than the overall rate, with 8 goals in four matches.
Achraf Hakimi leads the team’s tournament scoring list with 3 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances. Senny Mayulu has 2 goals and 1 assist in 2 matches, while Mika Godts has 2 goals and 1 assist in 3. Godts is doubtful after missing training for family reasons connected with the expected birth of his child. No other PSG injuries, suspensions or confirmed starting lineup details are given.
- Villarrealaway6:0
- Le Havreaway5:1
- Lyonhome2:0
- Barcelonahome4:2
- Strasbourgaway3:1
Troyes AC: limited scoring and a narrow recovery
Recent form and away record
Troyes have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last five matches, scoring 5 and conceding 7. The sequence includes a 2:2 draw at Dijon, defeats by Marseille and Lens, a goalless draw at Toulouse and a 2:0 home victory over Le Mans. They scored in 3 of those five games and kept two clean sheets. In Ligue 1, Troyes have scored 7 times and conceded 16, averaging 0.78 goals for and 1.78 against. Both teams scored in 3 of 9 matches, while the total exceeded 2.5 goals in 3. Away from home, they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 2 goals scored and 5 conceded.
Squad balance and weaknesses
- Troyes average fewer than one goal per league match.
- The 16 goals conceded rank them among the weaker defensive teams near the bottom.
- The away defence has allowed 5 goals in four league fixtures.
- The 2:0 win over Le Mans ended a six-match Ligue 1 run without victory.
Timothee Nkada, Mouhamed Diop and Ismael Boura have one league goal each among the leading players. Boura is ruled out with a thigh injury, and Ivann Titi is unavailable after a thigh contusion. Coach Stephane Dumont is expected to keep a stable lineup with minimal changes. No confirmed full starting eleven or further suspensions are provided.
- Le Manshome2:0
- Toulouseaway0:0
- RC Lenshome1:3
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
Previous meetings favour the hosts
Paris Saint-Germain are unbeaten in the three official meetings listed over the last five years: 2 wins and 1 draw. The latest three encounters produced 15 goals in total. PSG won 4:3 at home in October 2022 and 3:1 away in May 2023, while the other Paris meeting ended 2:2. The head-to-head record gives PSG the result advantage, with open scorelines in a small sample.
- 07.05.2023Troyes AC1:3Paris Saint-GermainFrance. Ligue 1
- 29.10.2022Paris Saint-Germain4:3Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 08.05.2022Paris Saint-Germain2:2Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 07.08.2021Troyes AC1:2Paris Saint-GermainFrance. Ligue 1
- 03.03.2018Troyes AC0:2Paris Saint-GermainFrance. Ligue 1
Team news and motivation before kickoff
Louis Enrique has rejected the assumption that the fixture must bring a large number of goals, stressing concentration rather than outside expectations. PSG lead the table and score freely, but their home record includes both a draw and a defeat. Troyes’ victory over Le Mans ended a six-match winless league sequence before the visit to the leaders.
Troyes are expected to make few changes, but Boura and Titi are unavailable. PSG’s main selection question concerns Godts. There are no additional scoreline opinions, confirmed injuries or complete official lineups.
Our prediction
Paris Saint-Germain host Troyes AC at Parc des Princes, with the leaders able to extend their advantage at the top. Troyes are 16th with 8 points from nine rounds. Our selection is Handicap 1 (-1.5) 1.37.
PSG have won five consecutive matches in all competitions, scoring 20 goals and conceding 4. They average 2.33 goals per Ligue 1 match, while Troyes concede 1.78 and have lost five of nine league games. Troyes have scored 7 goals, compared with PSG’s 21. Ismaël Boura and Ivann Titi are injured, reducing Troyes’ defensive options. Mika Godts is doubtful for family reasons, while PSG retain substantial attacking output: Hakimi has 3 goals and 2 assists in four league appearances, and Mayulu has 2 goals in two.
PSG’s home record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in four league matches at Parc des Princes. Their five-match winning run includes 5:1 against Le Havre, 4:2 against Barcelona and 6:0 at Villarreal. Troyes have scored only 2 goals in four away league games. The projected score is 3:0, covering the required margin.
Conclusion
Handicap 1 (-1.5) 1.37 is the selection. PSG are projected to win by at least two goals.
FAQ
When does Paris Saint-Germain — Troyes AC kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 15:05 (New York), Parc des Princes (Paris).
What is the prediction for Paris Saint-Germain — Troyes AC?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (-1.5) at 1.37.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Paris Saint-Germain win — 86%, draw — 9%, Troyes AC win — 5%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Villarrealaway6:0
- Le Havreaway5:1
- Lyonhome2:0
- Barcelonahome4:2
- Strasbourgaway3:1
- Le Manshome2:0
- Toulouseaway0:0
- RC Lenshome1:3
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 | Lille OSC | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Troyes AC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:18 | 7 |
Head-to-head
- 07.05.2023Troyes AC1:3Paris Saint-GermainFrance. Ligue 1
- 29.10.2022Paris Saint-Germain4:3Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 08.05.2022Paris Saint-Germain2:2Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 07.08.2021Troyes AC1:2Paris Saint-GermainFrance. Ligue 1
- 03.03.2018Troyes AC0:2Paris Saint-GermainFrance. Ligue 1
About the match
- 7 November · 15:05 New York
- Venue: Parc des Princes (Paris), Parizh
- Weather: 10° · precip. 0% · wind 1.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 15:20
Market view and statistical balance
The market makes Paris Saint-Germain the overwhelming favourite, assigning 85.9% to a home win, 9.5% to a draw and 4.7% to an away win. The line has shown no notable movement during the last 24 hours, leaving the assessment stable. The table position, five-match winning run and attacking gap support the strong home-favourite profile.
The goals market gives Over 3.5 a 56.2% probability against 43.8% for Under 3.5. BTTS is almost balanced but leans marginally toward “No”: 50.8% compared with 49.2% for “Yes”. The figures reflect PSG’s scoring surge, Troyes’ low league output and PSG’s limited home clean-sheet record.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (-1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.37
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
