Auxerre – Paris Match Prediction: Ligue 1 Analysis
Auxerre
ParisAuxerre host Paris at Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps in the tenth round of Ligue 1. The hosts are fourteenth with ten points, while Paris sit fourth with seventeen. Auxerre have conceded twenty-three goals in nine matches; Paris have scored sixteen and allowed ten. On 1 November, Auxerre lost 1:5 to Strasbourg while Paris beat AS Monaco 3:1, but their season profiles differ: Auxerre have defensive instability, while Paris hold the stronger league position.
Auxerre: attacking output against a vulnerable defence
Recent form and home trend
Auxerre's last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats, with ten goals scored and fourteen conceded. They have scored and conceded in all five. The latest result was a 1:5 defeat away to Strasbourg, following a 1:1 home draw with Le Mans and a 3:1 away win over Le Havre. Their home league record is more balanced: two wins, one draw and one defeat from four matches, with five goals for and five against. Across the league, Auxerre have scored thirteen goals, conceded twenty-three, recorded BTTS in eight of nine matches and Over 2.5 in seven.
Strengths, weaknesses and available personnel
- Cameron Archer leads the team with three goals in four league appearances.
- Danny Namaso has two goals and one assist in four matches.
- Romain Faivre has one goal and two assists in four matches, providing a creative outlet.
- Auxerre have kept only one clean sheet in nine league games and concede 2.56 goals per match on average.
A likely starting eleven, formation, injuries and suspensions have not been specified for Auxerre.
- Strasbourgaway1:5
- Le Manshome1:1
- Le Havreaway3:1
- Stade Rennaisaway1:4
- Clermont Foothome4:3
Paris: stronger season numbers, less convincing away record
Recent results and league position
Paris have won three and lost two of their last five matches, without a draw. They scored ten goals and conceded eight, finding the net in four of those games while conceding in all five. Their latest outing ended in a 3:1 home victory over Monaco, but the two preceding away fixtures brought defeats to Lorient and Lens. In the league, their away record is one win, one draw and two defeats, with only four goals scored and five conceded. That is below their overall rate of 1.78 goals per match.
Key players and tactical balance
- Lassine Sinayoko combines three goals with four assists in four league matches.
- Maxime Lopez has contributed two goals and one assist in four appearances.
- Luca Koleosho has scored once in three matches.
- Paris have three clean sheets in nine league games, while BTTS has landed in five and Over 2.5 in six.
Paris are fourth on seventeen points, level with Lyon's total but below the leading positions. A probable lineup, tactical shape, injuries and suspensions have not been specified. Paris's attacking efficiency is high, but their results vary substantially by venue.
- AS Monacohome3:1
- RC Lensaway1:2
- Stade Rennaishome4:3
- Lorientaway0:1
- Strasbourghome2:1
Head-to-head record favours the hosts over the longer sample
Auxerre have the better record across the five official meetings in the last five years: two wins, two draws and one defeat. They scored six goals and conceded three. The most recent meeting, played at Auxerre in February, ended 0:0; the preceding Ligue 1 encounter finished 1:1. Earlier meetings were also controlled by Auxerre, including home wins by 2:0 and an away win by 2:0. This record is lower-scoring than the current league profiles, especially Auxerre's recent defensive record.
- 08.02.2026Auxerre0:0ParisFrance. Ligue 1
- 29.11.2025Paris1:1AuxerreFrance. Ligue 1
- 04.05.2024Auxerre2:0ParisFrance. Ligue 2
- 07.10.2023Paris0:2AuxerreFrance. Ligue 2
- 01.02.2022Auxerre1:2ParisFrance. Ligue 2
Available news and motivation before kickoff
Paris produce strong attacking numbers, but their results depend heavily on the venue. Their league record supports that split: Paris have seventeen points overall but only one away win, while Auxerre have taken seven of their ten points at home.
There is no verified information about injuries, suspensions, confirmed lineups, training-ground developments or further expert opinions. Paris are three points behind Paris Saint-Germain, while Auxerre are four points above fifteenth-placed Angers SCO.
Paris to Take a Point or More
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) за 1.33. Paris occupy fourth place with 17 points after nine rounds, while Auxerre are 14th with 10. The gap is also clear in goal difference: Paris have scored 16 and conceded 10, whereas Auxerre have a 13:23 balance and allow 2.56 goals per league match.
Auxerre’s defensive instability was exposed again in the latest game, a 1:5 defeat to Strasbourg. They have conceded in all five recent matches, shipping 14 goals in that run, although their attack has scored in each game. Paris arrive after a 3:1 win over Monaco and have won three of their last five, scoring 10 goals. The away profile is less convincing—one win, one draw and two defeats in four league trips—but the draw protection is valuable against an Auxerre side that has lost five of nine league fixtures. A probable score is 1:2.
Conclusion
Handicap 2 (0) is the preferred option. Paris have the stronger season record and more reliable defensive numbers, while Auxerre’s recent five-goal concession reinforces the risk of backing the hosts.
FAQ
When does Auxerre — Paris kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 13:00 (New York), Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps (Auxerre).
What is the prediction for Auxerre — Paris?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.33.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Auxerre win — 23%, draw — 24%, Paris win — 53%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Strasbourgaway1:5
- Le Manshome1:1
- Le Havreaway3:1
- Stade Rennaisaway1:4
- Clermont Foothome4:3
- AS Monacohome3:1
- RC Lensaway1:2
- Stade Rennaishome4:3
- Lorientaway0:1
- Strasbourghome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lyon | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 08.02.2026Auxerre0:0ParisFrance. Ligue 1
- 29.11.2025Paris1:1AuxerreFrance. Ligue 1
- 04.05.2024Auxerre2:0ParisFrance. Ligue 2
- 07.10.2023Paris0:2AuxerreFrance. Ligue 2
- 01.02.2022Auxerre1:2ParisFrance. Ligue 2
About the match
- 7 November · 13:00 New York
- Venue: Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps (Auxerre)
- Weather: 8° · precip. 0% · wind 0.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 13:10
Market assessment and goal lines
The market makes Paris the clear favourite, assigning the away win a 52.8% probability. Auxerre's home win is rated at 22.9%, with the draw at 24.4%, so the pricing gives the visitors a meaningful edge without making the result certain. The 1X2 line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours, indicating a stable assessment rather than a late correction.
Goals are expected to be relatively active: Over 2.5 carries a 55.5% market probability, while BTTS is rated at 56.7%. Auxerre have recorded eight BTTS matches and seven Over 2.5 results, although Paris's away totals are more restrained. Auxerre's defensive record and Paris's five-match concession streak support the goal markets, while the unchanged line continues to favour Paris.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
