Trabzonspor vs Freiburg prediction: UEFA Conference League
Trabzonspor
FreiburgMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.33 pending
Trabzonspor host Freiburg at Senol Gunes Stadium in Trabzon on 5 November in the third round of the UEFA Conference League league phase. The hosts are fourth with six points, level with leaders Panathinaikos; Freiburg are 18th with three. A positive result would keep Trabzonspor near the top, while Freiburg need to close a three-point gap.
Trabzonspor: home control meets attacking absences
Recent form and scoring patterns
Trabzonspor have won their last five matches. Away, they beat KuPS 4:2 and Rizespor 4:3. Their European goal difference is 6:2 after two rounds.
Selection changes across the spine
Franculino Dju, scorer of three tournament goals, is out with a hamstring strain. Ruslan Malinovskyi is unavailable after knee surgery, Arseniy Batagov has a muscle injury and Okay Yokuslu has a cartilage injury. Doguhan Simsir and Aral Simsir are also unavailable, while Sidney Cabral is suspended. Paul Onuachu has returned to the starting side after injury; Tim Jabol-Folcarelli is rebuilding fitness. Samet Akaydin, Cenk Ozkacar, Benjamin Bouchouari and Batista Mendy are expected to start. Mohamed Salah has one goal and two assists in Europe, making his contribution especially relevant without Dju.
- Gaziantephome2:0
- Caykur Rizesporaway4:3
- Heart of Midlothianhome2:0
- Besiktashome2:0
- Kuopion Palloseuraaway4:2
Freiburg: results recover before the defence does
Two wins after three defeats
Freiburg lost to Leverkusen, Monaco and Bayern before beating Wolfsburg 3:2 and Augsburg 2:1. The improvement is in results and attacking output. Freiburg’s tournament balance of three scored and five conceded makes defensive improvement central to their climb up the table.
Attacking options and likely starters
Defender P. Treu is ruled out with a capsular injury. Max Rosenfelder, Christian Gunter and Patrick Osterhage are expected to start, while Cyriac Irie and Keisuke Goto could enter the attack after productive substitute appearances in the league. Maximilian Eggestein and Vincenzo Grifo each have one European goal; Lukas Kuebler has one assist. Freiburg’s tournament balance of three scored and five conceded makes defensive improvement central to their climb up the table. Complete probable lineups, formations and comparative team-strength figures are unavailable.
- Augsburgaway2:1
- VfL Wolfsburghome3:2
- Bayern Munichhome1:3
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
Reis identifies the pressing challenge
Thomas Reis says Trabzonspor want a very good result and to continue their progress in Europe. He describes Freiburg as a side he knows well and highlights their pressing. Trabzonspor’s ability to play through pressure will be tested, particularly with several midfield options absent. Freiburg bring the experience of reaching last season’s Europa League final; their latest two victories offer a more immediate sign of recovery.
Our Forecast
Trabzonspor have won five consecutive matches and scored at least two goals in each: 4 against KuPS, 2 against Besiktas, 2 against Hearts, 4 against Rizespor and 2 against Gaziantep. Their European start is also perfect, with six goals scored and two conceded across the opening two rounds.
Freiburg have conceded in all five of their latest matches. Their wins over Wolfsburg and Augsburg improved their results but did not resolve the defensive weakness. Trabzonspor will miss several players, including Franculino Dju, while Paul Onuachu has returned to the starting lineup after missing two league matches.
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.28. The bet is protected if Trabzonspor score exactly once, while their current scoring floor makes two or more goals the stronger scenario. Expected score: Trabzonspor 2:1 Freiburg.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.28 is the selection. Trabzonspor have scored at least two goals in five straight matches, while Freiburg have conceded in five consecutive games.
FAQ
When does Trabzonspor — Freiburg kick off?
The match starts on 05.11.2026 at 12:45 (New York), Senol Gunes (Trabzon).
What is the prediction for Trabzonspor — Freiburg?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.28.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Trabzonspor win — 40%, draw — 27%, Freiburg win — 33%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Gaziantephome2:0
- Caykur Rizesporaway4:3
- Heart of Midlothianhome2:0
- Besiktashome2:0
- Kuopion Palloseuraaway4:2
- Augsburgaway2:1
- VfL Wolfsburghome3:2
- Bayern Munichhome1:3
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 17 | Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 | Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 | Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 2 |
About the match
- 5 November · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Senol Gunes (Trabzon)
- Weather: 13° · precip. 68% · wind 3.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 05.11 12:10
A narrow home edge in the market
Trabzonspor are marginal favourites in the 1X2 market, with a margin-free home-win probability of 38.9%, against 34.5% for Freiburg and 26.7% for the draw. Over the last 24 hours, support has shifted from the hosts towards the draw and away win. The small gap between the teams contrasts with their recent win-loss records, while Trabzonspor’s absences and Freiburg’s recovery complicate that comparison.
Over 2.5 goals retains a 59.6% probability, but the line has moved towards Under. BTTS stands at 64.8% with no notable movement. The markets reflect opposing trends: Freiburg have repeatedly conceded while still scoring, whereas Trabzonspor’s recent home games have been lower-scoring clean-sheet wins.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.28
- Odds at prediction
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 75%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.3
- Potential win
- 30 $
- Status
- pending
