Прогноз Atalanta — Kairat на UEFA Conference League
Atalanta
KairatMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1.5) 1.46 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.26 pending
Atalanta host Kairat at New Balance Arena in the third round of the UEFA Conference League league phase. Atalanta have three points after two matches, while Kairat have one point. Atalanta are 15th with three goals scored and three conceded; Kairat are 31st with two scored and six conceded.
Atalanta: home advantage against a defensive problem
Recent form and match profile
Atalanta are winless in five matches, with two draws and three defeats. They scored eight goals and conceded fourteen, allowing goals in every game. They failed to score against Ajax and Parma, with their latest match ending in a 0:3 home defeat by Parma. Their other home fixture in this run was a 4:4 draw with Frosinone.
Away from home, Atalanta drew with Fiorentina and lost to Milan and Ajax, conceding seven goals across those three fixtures.
Strengths, weaknesses and expected personnel
Atalanta scored in three of those five matches, but their defensive record leaves little margin for attacking inconsistency. Gianluca Scamacca has one goal in two tournament appearances, Eljif Elmas has also scored once, and Giacomo Raspadori has one assist.
No starting eleven or formation is confirmed. Scamacca has returned to group training and is available for Atalanta.
- Parmahome0:3
- Fiorentinaaway2:2
- Frosinone Calciohome4:4
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
Kairat: productive scoring run, fragile European defence
Recent results and away performance
Kairat’s last five matches brought one win, three draws and one defeat, with ten goals scored and nine conceded. They scored in every game and conceded in four.
The sequence includes a 5:0 home win over Irtysh Pavlodar, a 1:5 home defeat by Panathinaikos, a 2:2 draw at Aktobe and a 1:1 draw with Altay Ust-Kamenogorsk. They arrive after two consecutive draws. The sequence also included an away match against Riga FC, so the Aktobe fixture was not their only away match in this five-game run.
Squad situation and tactical balance
- Ismail Bekbolat leads Kairat’s tournament scoring with one goal in two appearances.
- Alexandr Shirobokov has supplied one assist in two European matches.
Jora Harutyunyan has taken interim charge after previously working with the youth team. He inherits a side whose scoring run has not translated into wins, with defensive organisation the immediate concern. No starting lineup or formation is confirmed.
- Altay Ust-Kamenogorskhome1:1
- Aktobeaway2:2
- Panathinaikoshome1:5
- Irtysh Pavlodarhome5:0
- Riga FCaway1:1
Team news and tournament context
Scamacca has recovered from a thigh injury and resumed group training, making him available for Atalanta. Raspadori, Sead Kolasinac and Franck Kessie are working individually, with their match readiness unconfirmed. Gianluca Gaetano, Raoul Bellanova, Thomas Christensen, Odilon Kossounou, Isak Hien and Thomas Pompei remain in rehabilitation and are unavailable. Jorginho is Kairat’s only confirmed absentee, with a cruciate ligament rupture.
Atalanta entered a closed training camp after the Parma defeat. Sporting director Cristiano Giuntoli said the aim was to restore unity and focus, while the board publicly backed Maurizio Sarri.
Atalanta have three points, while Kairat have one point. Kairat are five points behind the leader but have the weakest goal difference among those teams.
Our pick for Bergamo
Atalanta need a response at New Balance Arena, and our pick is Handicap 1 (-1.5) 1.35. Kairat’s 1:5 defeat against Panathinaikos exposed how far their defending can unravel at this level. With Zhora Arutyunyan now in temporary charge after a coaching change, the visitors have little time to repair that weakness before facing another attack capable of exploiting it.
Scamacca has recovered and is available to play. According to media reports, the hosts also entered a closed training camp after losing 0:3 to Parma, with management backing Maurizio Sarri. That response is no guarantee of improvement: Atalanta’s absences make a clean sheet an unsafe assumption. The case for this handicap rests instead on the hosts scoring enough to absorb a possible reply. Predicted score: 3:1.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 1 (-1.5) 1.35 requires an Atalanta victory by at least two goals. Kairat’s European defensive collapse makes that margin achievable, although the hosts’ own defensive problems keep this a risk-bearing selection.
FAQ
When does Atalanta — Kairat kick off?
The match starts on 05.11.2026 at 12:45 (New York), New Balance Arena (Bergamo).
What is the prediction for Atalanta — Kairat?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (-1.5) at 1.35.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Atalanta win — 85%, draw — 9%, Kairat win — 6%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Parmahome0:3
- Fiorentinaaway2:2
- Frosinone Calciohome4:4
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
- Altay Ust-Kamenogorskhome1:1
- Aktobeaway2:2
- Panathinaikoshome1:5
- Irtysh Pavlodarhome5:0
- Riga FCaway1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 30 | Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Kairat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 | Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:2 | 0 |
About the match
- 5 November · 12:45 New York
- Venue: New Balance Arena (Bergamo), Bergamo
- Weather: 11° · precip. 0% · wind 0.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 05.11 12:00
Market view and available prices
The market assigns Atalanta an 84% probability of a home win, against 10.8% for a draw and 5.3% for an away win. There has been no notable line movement in the last 24 hours despite the hosts’ winless run.
The 3.5-goal market is almost evenly split: Over is assessed at 49.7% and Under at 50.3%. BTTS is similarly close, with Yes at 47% and No at 53%.
Neither goals market offers a clear preference: both defences have conceded regularly, but Atalanta’s scoring failures weaken the case for an automatic Over or BTTS bet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (-1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.35
- Odds at prediction
- 1.48
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.36
- Potential win
- 36 $
- Status
- pending
