Werder Bremen vs Paderborn 07: Bundesliga Match Prediction
Werder Bremen
Paderborn 07Werder Bremen host Paderborn 07 at the Weserstadion in Bundesliga round 6 on 17 October. Bremen are seventh with 8 points; Paderborn are 15th with 4, level with 16th-placed Union Berlin. The match marks the stadium’s centenary.
Werder: home scoring offsets defensive gaps
Recent results and league position
Werder’s last four league matches brought wins over Leipzig and Augsburg and draws at Cologne and Dortmund. Their latest result was a 2:2 draw in Dortmund. A separate 7:0 friendly defeat at Twente worsens the five-match defensive record but is not a Bundesliga result. Bremen are five points behind leaders Freiburg.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
Both home league games ended in victories, with six goals scored and three conceded. Across the season, Werder have scored and conceded 10 goals and kept no clean sheets. BTTS has landed in all five league fixtures, and four exceeded 2.5 goals. Five matches are insufficient to establish a reliable long-term rate.
Availability and selection
Felix Agu, Jens Stage, Justin Njinmah, Salim Musah and Skelly Alvero are out with muscle injuries; Moussa Ndiaye has a groin problem and Keke Topp a cruciate ligament injury. Senne Lynen has resumed partial training but will miss out. Amos Pieper has trained fully and should be available. Daniel Thioune sees no reason to change his selection and says Mitchell Weiser needs minutes after his long absence.
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:2
- Twenteaway0:7
- Augsburghome3:2
- 1. Kolnaway1:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome3:1
Paderborn: away attack yet to register
Form behind the results
Paderborn’s latest league match was a 2:0 home defeat to Stuttgart. Before that, they lost to Freiburg and Dortmund, with a 3:1 win over Hoffenheim between those defeats. A 1:0 friendly win at D.C. United accounts for their second victory in the last five matches across all competitions, not an improvement in their Bundesliga points return.
Scoring remains concentrated
All three league goals came against Hoffenheim, leaving Paderborn scoreless in their other four fixtures. Away from home they have one draw and one defeat, with no goals scored and three conceded. Seven goals allowed overall, one clean sheet and one BTTS result define a different scoring profile from Bremen’s. Only two of their five league matches exceeded 2.5 goals.
Recovery updates
Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant has partially rejoined training after a knee injury but is not ready for this match. Sebastian Klaas is nearing a return to team training, while Marcel Hoffmeier and Timur Gayret need more time.
- VfB Stuttgarthome0:2
- D.C. Unitedaway1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome3:1
- Borussia Dortmundaway0:3
- Freiburghome0:1
Previous meetings favour Bremen
Werder won two of the three competitive meetings over the past five years, with Paderborn winning the other. Results moved from 4:3 and 2:3 to a 1:0 Bremen win in October 2024. All three were played in Paderborn, limiting their relevance to this venue. August’s friendly in Bremen finished 2:2.
- 08.08.2026Werder Bremen2:2Paderborn 07Club Friendlies
- 30.10.2024Paderborn 070:1Werder BremenGermany DFB Pokal
- 19.10.2022Paderborn 073:2Werder BremenGermany DFB Pokal
- 22.01.2022Paderborn 073:4Werder BremenGermany. 2. Bundesliga
- 15.08.2021Werder Bremen1:4Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
Coaches focus on intensity and finishing
Thioune wants an intense, entertaining performance for the Weserstadion’s 100th anniversary and says Werder are taking the opposition seriously. Ralf Kettemann is satisfied with Paderborn’s footballing development but wants better chance conversion.
Our pick at the Weserstadion
Our selection is W1 1.84. Werder’s two home league wins, with 6 goals scored, make their attack the strongest argument against Paderborn. The visitors have drawn and lost their two away games without scoring; they must improve their finishing to exploit Bremen’s defensive weaknesses.
This is a backing of Werder’s scoring capacity, not their ability to keep a clean sheet: they have conceded in all five league matches. According to media reports, Jens Stage and Felix Agu are unavailable, while Amos Pieper should be available after returning to full training. Those absences temper confidence, but Paderborn’s three league defeats and just 3 goals across five games leave the hosts with the stronger route to victory. Predicted score: 2:1.
Final betting verdict
W1 1.84 is the selection because Bremen’s home attack faces a side still scoreless on its league travels. With only two home matches played and several absentees, this is a measured preference rather than a high-confidence bet.
FAQ
When does Werder Bremen — Paderborn 07 kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), Weserstadion (Bremen).
What is the prediction for Werder Bremen — Paderborn 07?
Our pick is W1 at 1.84.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Werder Bremen win — 54%, draw — 23%, Paderborn 07 win — 23%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:2
- Twenteaway0:7
- Augsburghome3:2
- 1. Kolnaway1:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome3:1
- VfB Stuttgarthome0:2
- D.C. Unitedaway1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome3:1
- Borussia Dortmundaway0:3
- Freiburghome0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:8 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
| 15 | Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:17 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 08.08.2026Werder Bremen2:2Paderborn 07Club Friendlies
- 30.10.2024Paderborn 070:1Werder BremenGermany DFB Pokal
- 19.10.2022Paderborn 073:2Werder BremenGermany DFB Pokal
- 22.01.2022Paderborn 073:4Werder BremenGermany. 2. Bundesliga
- 15.08.2021Werder Bremen1:4Paderborn 07Germany. 2. Bundesliga
About the match
- 17 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: Weserstadion (Bremen)
- Weather: 14° · precip. 3% · wind 4.3 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 15.10 17:10
Market makes Werder moderate favourites
The margin-free 1X2 assessment gives Bremen a 53.5% chance, compared with 23.1% for the draw and 23.4% for Paderborn. Home results support that favouritism, but the market leaves substantial room for dropped points. There has been no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
BTTS is assessed at 61.6%, despite Paderborn’s scoreless away record. Under 3.5 goals carries a 59.4% probability: the market distinguishes between both teams scoring and a high total. These assessments hinge on whether Paderborn can improve their finishing against a defence still without a league clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.84
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 54%
- Market estimate
- 54%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.84
- Potential win
- 84 $
- Status
- pending
