VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen forecast: Bundesliga match analysis
VfB Stuttgart
Werder BremenVfB Stuttgart host Werder Bremen at the MHP Arena in the ninth Bundesliga round. Stuttgart are eleventh with nine points, while Bremen are fifth with fifteen. The gap to Bayern Munich is nine points for Stuttgart and three for Bremen: the hosts need to recover ground, while the visitors can strengthen their European-position challenge.
Stuttgart: attacking output against an unstable defence
Recent form and home pattern
Stuttgart’s last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats, with eight goals scored and eight conceded. They scored in four games but kept only one clean sheet. The sequence included a 4:2 away win at Bayer Leverkusen and a 1:0 cup victory at Paderborn, followed by a 0:2 defeat at Galatasaray. Their home league record is one win and two defeats, with six goals for and five against across three matches.
Stuttgart have scored fourteen goals and conceded fifteen in eight Bundesliga fixtures. Both teams scored in five matches, while more than two goals were recorded in five. Ermedin Demirovic leads the team with four goals in four league appearances; Chris Fuhrich and Jamie Leweling have contributed a goal and an assist each in four matches.
Strengths, weaknesses and available personnel
- Stuttgart have scored in four of their last five matches and reached four goals away at Leverkusen.
- They conceded in four of those five games and have only one clean sheet in the league.
- Home league production is two goals per match, while the defence concedes more than one per game.
- Demirovic is the main finishing reference, with four goals from four appearances.
- Galatasarayaway0:2
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway4:2
- Paderborn 07away1:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome2:3
- Atletico Madridhome1:1
Werder Bremen: steadier results and a reliable scoring floor
Recent form and away performance
Werder’s last five matches brought two wins, two draws and one defeat. They scored eleven times and conceded nine, finding the net in every game. Their latest result was a 2:0 home win over Hoffenheim; the preceding league matches ended 3:2 away at Mainz and 2:2 at home against Paderborn. The only defeat in the sequence was a 2:3 cup loss at Borussia Dortmund.
After eight league matches, Bremen have four wins, three draws and one defeat, with seventeen goals scored and fourteen conceded. Both teams scored in seven of those games, and more than two goals appeared in six. Away from home, Bremen have one win, two draws and one defeat, scoring seven and conceding nine. Niclas Fullkrug has three goals in four league appearances, while Ludovit Reis has two.
Playing profile and squad context
- Bremen have scored in five consecutive matches.
- Their seven BTTS matches from eight indicate frequent chances at both ends.
- The away record contains two draws, showing resistance but limited control of close games.
- Fullkrug is the main named attacking reference with three goals in four appearances.
Justin Njinmah has returned to rehabilitation training, but his availability for this match is unconfirmed. Fullkrug has been called up by Germany for the upcoming Nations League fixtures.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome2:0
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:3
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away3:2
- Paderborn 07home2:2
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:2
Head-to-head record favours neither side clearly
Across eight official meetings in the last five years, Stuttgart have won two, drawn three and lost three. The most recent encounter ended 1:1 in Stuttgart, while the previous meeting at the MHP Arena also saw Bremen score twice in a 2:1 win. Stuttgart’s most convincing result in the series was the 4:0 away win in December 2025.
Both teams scored in five of them. Stuttgart scored thirteen times and Bremen eleven, leaving the historical scoring balance close despite Bremen’s slight advantage in results.
- 26.04.2026VfB Stuttgart1:1Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 14.12.2025Werder Bremen0:4VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 13.04.2025VfB Stuttgart1:2Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 30.11.2024Werder Bremen2:2VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 21.04.2024Werder Bremen2:1VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
News, motivation and tactical signals
The main Bremen personnel updates concern Njinmah’s rehabilitation work and Fullkrug’s Germany call-up. Bremen have stopped losing concentration after conceding and can continue pressing when behind.
Bremen scored twice or more in four of their last five matches. Stuttgart enter the fixture after a demanding Champions League trip to Galatasaray, where they lost 0:2. No further Stuttgart squad updates or confirmed lineups are available.
Our pick: Stuttgart to score twice
For VfB Stuttgart against Werder Bremen at the MHP Arena, our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.38. The hosts have scored 14 goals in eight Bundesliga games, including six in three home fixtures. That home return supports targeting their scoring rather than relying on a win: this bet can land even if Bremen take points.
The clearest opening is Bremen’s away defence, which has conceded nine goals in four league trips. Stuttgart’s four-goal performance at Leverkusen shows their attacking ceiling, although the subsequent blank against Galatasaray cautions against treating two goals as automatic. Bremen have kept just one clean sheet in eight league matches, so their strong results have rarely depended on shutting opponents out. A plausible score is 2:2.
Final verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.38 targets the visitors’ defensive weakness without requiring Stuttgart to contain Bremen’s attack. The small home sample limits confidence, but the scoring threshold remains within Stuttgart’s demonstrated range.
FAQ
When does VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen kick off?
The match starts on 07.11.2026 at 12:30 (New York), MHP Arena (Stuttgart).
What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart — Werder Bremen?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.38.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: VfB Stuttgart win — 58%, draw — 21%, Werder Bremen win — 22%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Galatasarayaway0:2
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway4:2
- Paderborn 07away1:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome2:3
- Atletico Madridhome1:1
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome2:0
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:3
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away3:2
- Paderborn 07home2:2
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14:16 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 26.04.2026VfB Stuttgart1:1Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 14.12.2025Werder Bremen0:4VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 13.04.2025VfB Stuttgart1:2Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 30.11.2024Werder Bremen2:2VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 21.04.2024Werder Bremen2:1VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 7 November · 12:30 New York
- Venue: MHP Arena (Stuttgart)
- Weather: 9° · precip. 0% · wind 0.7 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 06.11 13:50
Market view and goal expectations
The market makes Stuttgart the clear 1X2 favourite, assigning the home win a 57.8% probability. The draw stands at 20.6%, while Bremen’s win is assessed at 21.6%. The home line has moved against Stuttgart during the last twenty-four hours, indicating less confidence in that outcome. At the same time, both the draw and the away win have strengthened.
The goals market is close to balanced around the high-total line: the over side is priced by probability at 51.3%, against 48.7% for the under side, with the line moving modestly toward fewer goals. BTTS remains the strongest individual goal signal at 68.4%, unchanged in direction. Bremen have scored in every recent match, while Stuttgart have conceded in four of their last five.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
