Bundesliga Match Prediction: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Union Berlin
Borussia DortmundUnion Berlin host Borussia Dortmund at An der Alten Forsterei on 17 October in Bundesliga matchday six. The hosts sit 16th with four points; Dortmund are second on 13, level with leaders Freiburg. Union need points near the bottom, while the visitors are competing for first place.
Union: home results soften a difficult start
Recent form and scoring pattern
Union followed defeats against Leverkusen, Schalke and Bayern with wins over Rijeka and Elversberg, both by 1:0, although the former was a friendly. The latest league victory stopped a run of three Bundesliga defeats.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- At home, Union have one win, one draw and one defeat, with five goals scored and six conceded.
- The defensive damage is heavily concentrated outside Berlin.
- Four of five league fixtures exceeded 2.5 goals, but BTTS occurred in only two: high totals have often been driven by opponents.
Availability and selection
Andrej Ilic, Stanley Nsoki and Josip Juranovic are unavailable through injury. Emmanuel Latte Lath is doubtful with muscular discomfort.
- Elversberghome1:0
- Rijekaaway1:0
- Bayern Munichaway0:7
- Schalke 04home1:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway0:4
Dortmund: strong league start, shorter recovery
Results across two competitions
Dortmund's last five matches brought three wins, a draw and a defeat. After beating Villarreal, Paderborn and Stuttgart, they drew 2:2 with Werder Bremen and lost 1:0 at Bodo-Glimt. That European trip came on 14 October; Union last played on 10 October.
League strengths and pressure points
- Four wins and one draw leave Dortmund unbeaten in the Bundesliga, with 11 goals scored and four conceded.
- Both league away fixtures ended in victories, with a combined four goals for and two against.
- Three clean sheets in five league games contrast with goals conceded in each of their latest two matches across competitions.
Injuries and a defensive return
Emre Can and Giannis Konstantelias are out with cruciate ligament injuries; Justin Lerma is absent with a muscular injury. Schlotterbeck returns and is available to play. His availability adds a defensive option.
- Bodo-Glimtaway0:1
- Werder Bremenhome2:2
- VfB Stuttgartaway1:0
- Paderborn 07home3:0
- Villarrealhome3:2
Recent meetings favour the visitors
Dortmund have won seven of the nine official meetings over the past five years, with Union winning twice and no draws. The latest three ended 6:0, 3:0 and 3:0 for Dortmund. Union's most recent success was a 2:1 home win in October 2024.
- 24.01.2026Union Berlin0:3Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
- 31.08.2025Borussia Dortmund3:0Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 22.02.2025Borussia Dortmund6:0Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 05.10.2024Union Berlin2:1Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
- 02.03.2024Union Berlin0:2Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
Coaches focus on continuity and set pieces
Muro Lustinelli has called for continuity in Union's play and a high-level performance to create a chance of victory. Niko Kovac singled out Union's aggression and dangerous set pieces. That identifies dead-ball situations as a specific concern for Dortmund.
Our pick: Dortmund to take the points
Our bet is W2 1.63. Dortmund’s four wins in five league games make them the stronger choice against a Union side with three defeats and 17 goals conceded. The hosts’ defensive record offers the visitors a route to victory without needing to match the heavy scorelines of recent meetings. Dortmund have also won both Bundesliga away fixtures, scoring four goals and conceding two.
Schlotterbeck’s return strengthens the visitors’ defensive options, according to media reports; Union will be without Ilic, Nsoki and Juranovic. Dortmund’s seven wins in nine meetings, including three successive clean-sheet victories, favour this matchup. The main reservation is recovery time after their 14 October European defeat: Union have had longer to prepare, and their set pieces demand care. That risk reduces confidence in a wide margin rather than changing the selection. Predicted score: 0:2.
Final verdict
W2 1.63 is our selection: Dortmund’s away results and Union’s defensive losses support backing the visitors, despite the shorter turnaround.
FAQ
When does Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), An der Alten Forsterei (Berlin).
What is the prediction for Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund?
Our pick is W2 at 1.63.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Union Berlin win — 18%, draw — 21%, Borussia Dortmund win — 60%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Elversberghome1:0
- Rijekaaway1:0
- Bayern Munichaway0:7
- Schalke 04home1:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway0:4
- Bodo-Glimtaway0:1
- Werder Bremenhome2:2
- VfB Stuttgartaway1:0
- Paderborn 07home3:0
- Villarrealhome3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 15 | Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:17 | 4 |
| 17 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9:13 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 24.01.2026Union Berlin0:3Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
- 31.08.2025Borussia Dortmund3:0Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 22.02.2025Borussia Dortmund6:0Union BerlinGermany. Bundesliga
- 05.10.2024Union Berlin2:1Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
- 02.03.2024Union Berlin0:2Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 17 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: An der Alten Forsterei (Berlin), Berlin
- Weather: 12° · precip. 28% · wind 3.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 15.10 17:10
Market makes Dortmund clear favourites
The margin-free 1X2 assessment assigns Dortmund a 60.3% chance, compared with 21.3% for a draw and 18.4% for Union. All listed markets have remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours.
Under 3.5 goals carries a 57.3% assessment, while BTTS is rated at 60.8%. The market therefore separates the likelihood of both sides scoring from that of a four-goal game. BTTS has occurred in just two of five league matches for each team, so that expectation is stronger than the early-season frequency; the samples remain small.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.63
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 60%
- Market estimate
- 60%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.63
- Potential win
- 63 $
- Status
- pending
