Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05: Bundesliga Match Prediction
Schalke 04
1. FSV Mainz 05Schalke 04 host 1. FSV Mainz 05 at Veltins-Arena in the sixth Bundesliga round. Mainz are eighth with seven points; Schalke are thirteenth with five. The hosts have yet to score or concede at home, while the visitors have won both away league matches.
Schalke 04: compact at home, more productive away
Recent form and statistical profile
Schalke have won three of their last five matches, drawn once and lost once. They scored in four games. Their latest result was a 1:2 defeat at Freiburg, following away wins over Union Berlin, 3:1, and Austria Lustenau, 1:0. The 5:2 victory over Rot-Weiß Oberhausen was a friendly; the league meeting with Elversberg finished 0:0.
Their league record stands at one win, two draws and two defeats, with four goals scored and six conceded. Schalke sit eight points behind Freiburg.
Strengths, vulnerabilities and squad situation
Karaman has one goal and Gantenbeyn one assist in the tournament. Schalke’s recent scoring totals include a friendly, while their league attack has produced all its goals away from home.
Moussa Sylla is out with a leg injury. Dejan Ljubicic has yet to return to team training after a knee problem. Coach Miron Muslic described Schalke as competitive and difficult to play against.
- Freiburgaway1:2
- Austria Lustenauaway1:0
- Rot-Weiß Oberhausenaway5:2
- Elversberghome0:0
- Union Berlinaway3:1
Mainz 05: high attacking ceiling and exposed defence
Recent form and away performance
Mainz have three wins, two defeats and no draws in their last five matches. They scored in every game. Their latest result was a 3:4 home defeat to Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Before that, they beat Hamburger 5:0 away, Borussia Mönchengladbach 4:3 away and Waldhof Mannheim 3:0 in a friendly. Their other league defeat was 1:3 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.
Mainz have scored thirteen goals in five league matches, averaging 2.6 per game, and conceded ten, or two per match. BTTS (both teams to score) landed in three fixtures and Over 2.5 goals in four. Their away league record contains nine goals scored and three conceded.
Personnel and tactical balance
Kasi has two goals, Khollerbakh one and Amiri one assist. Mainz’s scoring rate has offset defensive concessions on the road, but their two recent home league defeats show the cost of allowing opponents repeated scoring opportunities.
Robin Zentner is out with a hand injury. Dominik Kohr, Otto Ruoppi and Silas will also miss the match.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome3:4
- Waldhof Mannheimaway3:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway4:3
- Eintracht Frankfurthome1:3
- Hamburgeraway5:0
Previous meetings favour the hosts
The clubs have met twice in official competition during the last five years. Schalke won 1:0 at home in November and 3:2 away in May. This short sample comes from an earlier Bundesliga cycle and carries less weight than the teams’ current home and away records.
- 05.05.20231. FSV Mainz 052:3Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 09.11.2022Schalke 041:01. FSV Mainz 05Germany. Bundesliga
- 05.03.2021Schalke 040:01. FSV Mainz 05Germany. Bundesliga
- 07.11.20201. FSV Mainz 052:2Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 16.02.20201. FSV Mainz 050:0Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
Team news before the Bundesliga fixture
Neither team’s starting eleven or exact formation is confirmed. No suspensions are listed.
Schalke’s tactical challenge is to create more at home without sacrificing defensive compactness. Mainz’s attacking output away from home makes that balance particularly relevant.
Our goals prediction
Our pick for Schalke 04 against Mainz at Veltins-Arena is Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.51. Mainz have scored 13 goals in five league games and found the net in all five of their latest fixtures. Their attacking output makes an away goal the stronger half of this selection; conceding 2.0 goals per league match leaves a route for Schalke to respond.
Robin Zentner’s absence with a hand injury removes Mainz’s first-choice goalkeeper, while Dominik Kohr is also unavailable. Schalke have scored in four of their last five outings. The reservations are specific: Moussa Sylla is out with a leg injury, and Schalke have scored no goals across their two home league games. That small home sample tempers confidence rather than outweighing Mainz’s defensive vulnerability. A 1:2 scoreline fits the selection.
Final betting call
Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.51 is our choice, with Schalke’s goal the less secure part of the bet. Mainz’s weakened defensive personnel make that risk acceptable, but this is not a high-confidence selection.
FAQ
When does Schalke 04 — 1. FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen).
What is the prediction for Schalke 04 — 1. FSV Mainz 05?
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.51.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Schalke 04 win — 31%, draw — 27%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 win — 42%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Freiburgaway1:2
- Austria Lustenauaway1:0
- Rot-Weiß Oberhausenaway5:2
- Elversberghome0:0
- Union Berlinaway3:1
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome3:4
- Waldhof Mannheimaway3:0
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway4:3
- Eintracht Frankfurthome1:3
- Hamburgeraway5:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. Koln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 05.05.20231. FSV Mainz 052:3Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 09.11.2022Schalke 041:01. FSV Mainz 05Germany. Bundesliga
- 05.03.2021Schalke 040:01. FSV Mainz 05Germany. Bundesliga
- 07.11.20201. FSV Mainz 052:2Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
- 16.02.20201. FSV Mainz 050:0Schalke 04Germany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 17 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen)
- Weather: 14° · precip. 47% · wind 3.7 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 15.10 17:10
Market view and goal-line assessment
The 1X2 market makes Mainz favourites at 42.1%, against 31.2% for a home win and 26.8% for a draw. The gap is modest. There has been no notable line movement over the last twenty-four hours.
Over 2.5 goals is assessed at 57.9% and BTTS at 61.6%. Mainz’s scoring record supports those prices, but Schalke’s goalless home matches make backing either goal market less straightforward.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Current odds
- 1.51
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 62%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.51
- Potential win
- 51 $
- Status
- pending
