Bundesliga Match Prediction: Hamburger vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger
VfB StuttgartHamburger host VfB Stuttgart at the Volksparkstadion on 17 October in Bundesliga round 6. Both have 6 points, with Stuttgart 11th and Hamburg 12th. A win would separate the neighbours, who each trail leaders Freiburg by 7 points.
Hamburg: recovery after two heavy defeats
Recent form and the home record
Hamburg have won their last 3 matches, including a 2:0 friendly victory over Copenhagen. League wins over Koln, 2:1, and Hoffenheim, 3:2, followed consecutive 0:5 defeats to Mainz and Leipzig. Their two Bundesliga home matches produced one win, one loss and a 2:6 goal balance.
Attacking progress, defensive exposure
- Hamburg have scored 5 goals in 5 league matches.
- They have conceded 15 in 5 league matches without a clean sheet.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 fixtures, but BTTS in only 2: one-sided defeats account for much of the scoring.
Availability and selection
Nicolai Remberg is out with a knee injury, while Patson Daka remains unavailable with a muscle injury. Bilal Nadir and Zakaria El Ouahdi have returned to team training. Albert Gronbaek, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Bakery Jatta have trained partially; their availability depends on final tests. Mukhaym has a league goal and an assist; Poulsen and Moffi have one goal each.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway3:2
- Copenhagenhome2:0
- 1. Kolnhome2:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzigaway0:5
- 1. FSV Mainz 05home0:5
Stuttgart: clean sheets across a mixed schedule
Results need competition context
Stuttgart followed a 0:1 defeat to Dortmund with four wins without conceding. Two were friendlies against Heidenheim and Greuther Furth; the competitive victories were 2:0 at Paderborn and 3:0 at Slovan Bratislava. The European match on 14 October leaves a three-day turnaround before another away fixture.
Better balance, vulnerable away numbers
- Stuttgart's league goal balance is 8:9.
- Their three Bundesliga away matches yielded one win and two defeats, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred in 3 of 5 league games; Stuttgart kept one clean sheet.
Creative contributors and squad information
Angelo Stiller has two league assists, while Chris Fuhrich and Julian Chabot have scored once each.
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
- Paderborn 07away2:0
- Greuther Furthhome5:0
- 1. Heidenheimhome3:0
- Borussia Dortmundhome0:1
Head-to-head edge belongs to Stuttgart
Stuttgart won 3 of the last 4 official meetings, scoring 11 goals to Hamburg's 3. Every match exceeded 2.5 goals, but only two featured BTTS. Hamburg won the most recent meeting at this ground, 2:1 in November 2025; Stuttgart answered with a 4:0 home victory in April 2026.
- 12.04.2026VfB Stuttgart4:0HamburgerGermany. Bundesliga
- 30.11.2025Hamburger2:1VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 05.06.2023Hamburger1:3VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga - Relegation (Play-off)
- 01.06.2023VfB Stuttgart3:0HamburgerGermany. Bundesliga - Relegation (Play-off)
- 26.08.2020VfB Stuttgart3:2HamburgerFriendly Club Tournament
Coaches focus on adaptation and pressure
Merlin Polzin said Hamburg must find a different way to compensate for Remberg's absence. Sebastian Hoeness highlighted the boost Hamburg received from beating Hoffenheim and called on Stuttgart to withstand the pressure and deliver their best football.
Our pick: goals at both ends
Our bet for Hamburger against VfB Stuttgart is Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.39. Hamburg have conceded 15 goals in five league games without keeping a clean sheet, so Stuttgart should find openings. The hosts’ three goals at Hoffenheim also show why backing the visitors to shut them out is a less convincing approach.
Stuttgart have scored in four consecutive wins across all competitions, although two were friendlies. Their league away record is more relevant here: four goals scored and seven conceded in three matches suggests opportunities at both ends. Hamburg will be without Nicolai Remberg due to a knee injury and will need to compensate for his absence. The main risk to the bet is Stuttgart’s run of four clean sheets; Hamburg’s recent attacking output must overcome that improvement. A possible score is 1:2.
The betting verdict
Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.39 is our selection: Hamburg’s defensive record offers Stuttgart a route to goal, while the hosts have enough recent attacking evidence to back a reply.
FAQ
When does Hamburger — VfB Stuttgart kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 09:30 (New York), Volksparkstadion (Hamburg).
What is the prediction for Hamburger — VfB Stuttgart?
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.39.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Hamburger win — 22%, draw — 24%, VfB Stuttgart win — 54%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway3:2
- Copenhagenhome2:0
- 1. Kolnhome2:1
- RasenBallsport Leipzigaway0:5
- 1. FSV Mainz 05home0:5
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
- Paderborn 07away2:0
- Greuther Furthhome5:0
- 1. Heidenheimhome3:0
- Borussia Dortmundhome0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1. Koln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 12.04.2026VfB Stuttgart4:0HamburgerGermany. Bundesliga
- 30.11.2025Hamburger2:1VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 05.06.2023Hamburger1:3VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga - Relegation (Play-off)
- 01.06.2023VfB Stuttgart3:0HamburgerGermany. Bundesliga - Relegation (Play-off)
- 26.08.2020VfB Stuttgart3:2HamburgerFriendly Club Tournament
About the match
- 17 October · 09:30 New York
- Venue: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg), Gamburg
- Weather: 14° · precip. 10% · wind 3.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 16.10 15:10
Visitors favoured, goals line finely balanced
The 1X2 market assigns Stuttgart a 51.8% chance of victory, with Hamburg and the draw each at 24.1%. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
BTTS is priced at 68.9%, while Over and Under 3.5 goals are almost evenly balanced. Both teams scoring would not require a four-goal match; with friendlies included in both winning runs, those sequences alone are insufficient to support a goals bet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Current odds
- 1.39
- Odds at prediction
- 1.35
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.35
- Potential win
- 35 $
- Status
- pending
