Прогноз на Anaitasuna – Deportivo Alaves в Кубке Испании
Anaitasuna
Deportivo AlavesMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1.5) 1.26 pending
Anaitasuna hosts Deportivo Alaves at Anaitasuna in Azkoitia in the opening round of the Copa del Rey. The lower-league hosts face a La Liga side struggling for wins, with a place in the next round at stake.
Anaitasuna: cup momentum and a productive home attack
Anaitasuna has won its last two matches against Tedeon, scoring five goals in each, once at home and once away. Across its last five matches, the team has three wins and two defeats. It scored in all five and conceded in four, allowing three goals in each of the two earlier defeats.
At home, Anaitasuna has four wins and one draw in its current sequence, including a 5:0 cup victory.
Where Anaitasuna can hurt Alaves
Anaitasuna’s scoring consistency offers a route to troubling the visitors, particularly at home. Its defensive record also leaves Alaves room to attack: the hosts’ recent results support an open game more than a low-scoring contest.
- Tedeonaway5:2
- Tedeonhome5:0
- Basconiaaway2:3
- Anorga KKEhome2:1
- Deportivo Alaves IIIaway1:3
Deportivo Alaves: higher-class opposition, but weak recent results
Alaves has two draws and three defeats in its last five league matches. The sequence includes a 6:1 loss at Barcelona, defeats by Atletico Madrid and Celta, a 1:1 draw with Malaga and a 0:0 draw at Sevilla. The team scored in four of those five matches but failed to score in the latest one.
The cup record is more balanced: one win and one defeat, four goals for and three against, with one clean sheet. That remains a small sample.
Alaves’ main variables before the tie
- Class advantage: Alaves faces opposition from below La Liga, but its recent defending makes a large Asian handicap harder to support.
- Scoring ceiling: the visitors scored one goal in each of three recent matches before drawing a blank at Sevilla.
Head coach Kike Sanchez Flores said before the match that Alaves must pursue victory.
- Sevillaaway0:0
- Barcelonaaway1:6
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
News, motivation and the psychological balance
Anaitasuna returned to the tournament after six years and opened its campaign with a 10:2 aggregate win over Tedeon, with both teams scoring across the tie. Its broader unbeaten run stands at eight matches, comprising seven wins and one draw. That sequence covers a different span from the five-match record above.
Alaves’ league winless run extends to eight matches. The season began with three wins and an away draw at Rayo Vallecano before that run started.
Our prediction: a three-goal away margin
Our pick is Handicap 2 (-2.5) 1.47. Alaves need to win by at least three goals for this bet to succeed. The case rests on the gap between La Liga and lower-league opposition, rather than the visitors’ recent results. Anaitasuna conceded in four of their last five listed matches, including three goals in each defeat. Against a top-flight attack, those defensive weaknesses carry more weight than their scoring returns against Tedeon.
The hosts’ four wins and one draw at home this season make this a demanding handicap, not a routine away-win selection. Alaves have also gone eight league matches without victory, so their status alone is insufficient evidence for a comfortable margin. Nevertheless, they scored in four of their last five games against much stronger opposition, and the clean sheet at Sevilla offers a better defensive starting point. Quique Sanchez Flores has called for victory; there is no confirmed injury, suspension or lineup information to support assumptions about rotation. The current market assigns the visitors an 89% win probability, although that does not measure their chance of covering this handicap. Our projected score is 0:3.
The betting verdict
Handicap 2 (-2.5) 1.47 is the selection, with the divisional gap expected to outweigh Alaves’ poor league run. The main risk is the winning margin: a narrow away victory would still lose the bet.
FAQ
When does Anaitasuna — Deportivo Alaves kick off?
The match starts on 10.11.2026 at 13:00 (New York), Anaitasuna (Azkoitia).
What is the prediction for Anaitasuna — Deportivo Alaves?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (-2.5) at 1.47.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Anaitasuna win — 5%, draw — 7%, Deportivo Alaves win — 88%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Tedeonaway5:2
- Tedeonhome5:0
- Basconiaaway2:3
- Anorga KKEhome2:1
- Deportivo Alaves IIIaway1:3
- Sevillaaway0:0
- Barcelonaaway1:6
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
About the match
- 10 November · 13:00 New York
- Venue: Anaitasuna (Azkoitia)
Odds
Odds updated 10.11 12:20
How the market rates the tie
The 1X2 market assigns Alaves a 90.8% probability of an away win, Anaitasuna 3.2% for a home win and the draw 6%, with a margin of 7.6%. Over the last day, away-win odds have shortened while home-win and draw odds have lengthened.
Under 4.5 is assessed at 51.6% and Over 4.5 at 48.4%, with the implied probability on both lines declining. BTTS (both teams to score) No is assigned 66%, against 34% for Yes. Alaves’ clean sheet at Sevilla supports the preference for BTTS No, but Anaitasuna’s recent scoring record makes that market less clear-cut than the visitors’ status as favorites.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (-2.5)
- Current odds
- 1.47
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.47
- Potential win
- 47 $
- Status
- pending
