Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krasnodar: Russia Premier League Match Prediction
Lokomotiv Moscow
KrasnodarLokomotiv Moscow host Krasnodar at RZD Arena on 17 October in round 11 of the Premier League. Krasnodar are fourth, one point behind leaders Dynamo Moscow; Lokomotiv sit 13th, two points above Akron. Both lost cup matches on 13 October.
Lokomotiv: home scoring remains the obstacle
Recent results and league performance
Lokomotiv's last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and five conceded. Two were friendlies. In competitive fixtures, a 5:0 away league win over Fakel was followed by a 1:2 cup defeat to Akron. Their 10 league games have yielded two wins, four draws and four defeats.
- At home: no wins in four league games, with three draws and one defeat.
- Two goals scored and three conceded in those home fixtures: scoring has been the main limitation.
- Across the league season, BTTS (both teams to score) has occurred six times, Over 2.5 goals four times, and Lokomotiv have kept three clean sheets.
Komlichenko returns, with minutes managed
Nikolay Komlichenko returned against Akron after a serious injury. He played 60 minutes to preserve him for this fixture, but his readiness for a full match remains unconfirmed. No confirmed starting XI, formation or further injury and suspension details are available.
- Akron Tolyattihome1:2
- Fakel Voronezhaway5:0
- Orenburghome2:0
- Arsenal Tulahome0:2
- Krylia Sovetovhome1:1
Krasnodar: away resilience against a recent dip
Season strength and the latest setbacks
Krasnodar have 21 points from six wins, three draws and one defeat, with a league goal difference of +6. Their last five matches across all competitions brought one win, two draws and two losses, with six goals scored and six conceded. The only victory was a friendly against Rostov; their latest competitive results were a 2:3 loss to Zenit and a 0:2 cup defeat to Fakel.
- Unbeaten in five away league fixtures: three wins and two draws, with eight goals scored and four conceded.
- Season averages: 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Four league clean sheets, with BTTS in six games and Over 2.5 goals in five.
Krivtsov unavailable in midfield
Nikita Krivtsov will miss the match with a tendon injury. No replacement, probable lineup or formation is confirmed.
- Fakel Voronezhhome0:2
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome2:3
- Rostovaway3:0
- Orenburgaway0:0
- Akron Tolyattihome1:1
Head-to-head: a narrow Krasnodar advantage
The 11 official meetings over five years have brought four Krasnodar wins, three Lokomotiv wins and four draws. The latest eight contained 18 goals, an average of 2.25 per match, with both teams scoring in five. Their most recent encounter finished 1:1 in November 2025.
- 23.11.2025Lokomotiv Moscow1:1KrasnodarRussia. Premier League
- 26.07.2025Krasnodar1:2Lokomotiv MoscowRussia. Premier League
- 08.12.2024Krasnodar0:0Lokomotiv MoscowRussia. Premier League
- 01.09.2024Lokomotiv Moscow0:3KrasnodarRussia. Premier League
- 31.03.2024Lokomotiv Moscow1:1KrasnodarRussia. Premier League
Pre-match comments and turnaround
Yuri Semin described Krivtsov's absence as a problem for Krasnodar. Both clubs have four calendar days between their cup matches and this league fixture. No further verified expert comments or match-specific news are available.
Our pick: protection against a draw
Our bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.53. Krasnodar's unbeaten league away record is the key: three wins and two draws, with eight goals scored and four conceded. Lokomotiv have yet to win at home, scoring just twice in four league fixtures. That contrast favours the visitors, while the hosts' three home draws make the refund on a stalemate valuable.
Krasnodar's two successive defeats temper confidence in an outright victory, but both came at home. According to media reports, Nikita Krivtsov is unavailable with a tendon injury, reducing their midfield options. Lokomotiv have Nikolay Komlichenko back, though his cup appearance was capped at 60 minutes after a serious injury. The visitors' away results carry more weight for this selection than the latest cup setbacks. Predicted score: 1-2.
Final verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.53 backs Krasnodar's stronger away record without requiring them to break through at all costs: a win pays, a draw returns the stake, and only a defeat loses.
FAQ
When does Lokomotiv Moscow — Krasnodar kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 12:30 (New York), RZD Arena (Moscow).
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Moscow — Krasnodar?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.53.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Lokomotiv Moscow win — 27%, draw — 27%, Krasnodar win — 45%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Akron Tolyattihome1:2
- Fakel Voronezhaway5:0
- Orenburghome2:0
- Arsenal Tulahome0:2
- Krylia Sovetovhome1:1
- Fakel Voronezhhome0:2
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome2:3
- Rostovaway3:0
- Orenburgaway0:0
- Akron Tolyattihome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zenit Saint Petersburg | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 22:11 | 21 |
| 4 | Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16:10 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 12 | Rostov | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:17 | 11 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:11 | 10 |
| 14 | Akron Tolyatti | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11:19 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 23.11.2025Lokomotiv Moscow1:1KrasnodarRussia. Premier League
- 26.07.2025Krasnodar1:2Lokomotiv MoscowRussia. Premier League
- 08.12.2024Krasnodar0:0Lokomotiv MoscowRussia. Premier League
- 01.09.2024Lokomotiv Moscow0:3KrasnodarRussia. Premier League
- 31.03.2024Lokomotiv Moscow1:1KrasnodarRussia. Premier League
About the match
- 17 October · 12:30 New York
- Venue: RZD Arena (Moscow), Moskva
- Weather: 12° · precip. 0% · wind 1.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 16.10 12:40
Market: visitors favoured without a majority share
The margin-free 1X2 probabilities are 45.3% for a Krasnodar away win, 27.3% for a Lokomotiv home win and 27.4% for a draw. The visitors are favourites, but their probability remains below the combined share of the other outcomes.
Over 2.5 goals carries 51.4% against 48.6% for Under 2.5, while BTTS is assessed at 56%. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the last 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.53
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 62%
- Market estimate
- 62%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.53
- Potential win
- 53 $
- Status
- pending
