Russia Premier League: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel Voronezh Match Prediction
Krylia Sovetov
Fakel VoronezhKrylia Sovetov host Fakel Voronezh at Samara Arena on 17 October in Round 11 of the Russian Premier League. Krylia are 10th with 12 points, one ahead of Akhmat; Fakel are bottom with three, two behind Rodina Moscow, and still seeking their first league victory.
Krylia: draws outweigh victories
Recent results and home performance
Krylia have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions, scoring eight goals and conceding five. Four goals came in the friendly against Akron. Their three league fixtures in that sequence produced a victory over Rodina and draws with Lokomotiv and Spartak, before the 0:2 cup loss to Baltika on 14 October.
Attacking output and defensive weaknesses
The season record is two wins, six draws and two defeats, with 14 league goals scored and 15 conceded. BTTS has landed in seven of ten matches; Krylia have kept only two clean sheets. At home, they have one victory from five fixtures and a 6:10 goal balance, limiting their advantage in Samara. Half their league games have exceeded 2.5 goals.
Selection and preparation
Sergei Bulatov described the Baltika match as a useful lesson before Saturday's league fixture and said preparations were focused on Fakel. No probable starting XI, formation, key-player assessment or confirmed injury or suspension list is available.
- Baltika Kaliningradhome0:2
- Spartak Moscowhome1:1
- Akron Tolyattihome4:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowaway1:1
- Rodina Moscowhome2:1
Fakel: cup relief amid league struggles
Contrasting results across competitions
Fakel's last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. The 2:0 cup victory at Krasnodar on 13 October followed a 0:5 league defeat against Lokomotiv. Their other win came against Vitebsk in a friendly, so neither victory ended their league drought.
Away record and scoring limits
All four league away games have ended in defeat, with three goals scored and eight conceded. Fakel average 0.6 goals for and 1.8 against across the season. BTTS has occurred in four of ten matches, while five have gone Over 2.5 goals. They have kept two clean sheets but scored only six league goals.
Rebko takes charge; Magkeev returns
Alexey Rebko became interim head coach after Oleg Vasilenko's departure and confirmed he would lead the team in Samara, where the squad was already training under him. Stanislav Magkeev made his first appearance of the season against Krasnodar, although Rebko acknowledged his health difficulties. No confirmed starting XI, formation or suspension list is available.
- Krasnodaraway2:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowhome0:5
- Vitebskhome1:0
- Spartak Moscowaway0:1
- Baltika Kaliningradhome2:2
Previous meetings favour the Samara side
Krylia have won five of the eight official meetings, drawing twice and losing once.
The latest meeting ended 1:1 in May 2025. These meetings have produced BTTS less frequently than Krylia's current league fixtures.
- 24.05.2025Fakel Voronezh1:1Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
- 11.08.2024Krylia Sovetov2:0Fakel VoronezhRussia. Premier League
- 25.04.2024Fakel Voronezh0:1Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
- 02.09.2023Krylia Sovetov3:0Fakel VoronezhRussia. Premier League
- 28.05.2023Fakel Voronezh2:1Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
Coaches focus on contrasting midweek lessons
Rebko said he hoped Fakel could preserve the positive mood from beating Krasnodar.
Our pick: home advantage with draw protection
Our bet is Handicap 1 (0) 1.42. Fakel have lost all four league away games, scoring three goals and conceding eight. Their six goals across ten league fixtures leave little margin for defensive errors. Krylia have scored 14 over the same stretch; that attacking edge makes the hosts the stronger side to back, despite their modest home record.
The protection matters: Krylia have drawn six of ten league matches and won only once in five at home, conceding ten goals. Those figures argue against relying on an outright victory. Fakel's cup success against Krasnodar is a reason for caution, but it does not erase their league away record. Stanislav Magkeev has returned to action. A narrow home win is the forecast: 1:0.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 1 (0) 1.42 pairs Krylia's stronger scoring output with a refund if the match finishes level. Fakel's away defeats make the home side preferable, while Krylia's frequency of draws makes that protection worth retaining.
FAQ
When does Krylia Sovetov — Fakel Voronezh kick off?
The match starts on 17.10.2026 at 07:00 (New York), Samara Arena (Samara).
What is the prediction for Krylia Sovetov — Fakel Voronezh?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.42.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Krylia Sovetov win — 49%, draw — 27%, Fakel Voronezh win — 24%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Baltika Kaliningradhome0:2
- Spartak Moscowhome1:1
- Akron Tolyattihome4:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowaway1:1
- Rodina Moscowhome2:1
- Krasnodaraway2:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowhome0:5
- Vitebskhome1:0
- Spartak Moscowaway0:1
- Baltika Kaliningradhome2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14:15 | 12 |
| 11 | Akhmat | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 12 | Rostov | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:17 | 11 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:11 | 10 |
| 14 | Akron Tolyatti | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11:19 | 8 |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10:25 | 5 |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6:18 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 24.05.2025Fakel Voronezh1:1Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
- 11.08.2024Krylia Sovetov2:0Fakel VoronezhRussia. Premier League
- 25.04.2024Fakel Voronezh0:1Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
- 02.09.2023Krylia Sovetov3:0Fakel VoronezhRussia. Premier League
- 28.05.2023Fakel Voronezh2:1Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
About the match
- 17 October · 07:00 New York
- Venue: Samara Arena (Samara), Samara
- Weather: 17° · precip. 0% · wind 2.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 16.10 12:10
Home favouritism without a majority probability
The 1X2 market assigns Krylia a 47.3% probability, the draw 27.3% and Fakel 25.4%. The hosts are favourites, but their win probability remains below 50%. There has been no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
Under 2.5 has a 51.7% probability, while BTTS is marginally favoured at 52.6%. Neither goals market has shown a notable line change.
Fakel's scoring record supports Under 2.5, but Krylia's BTTS frequency weakens that bet. Neither goals market offers a clear statistical preference.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.42
- Odds at prediction
- 1.46
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 82%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.46
- Potential win
- 46 $
- Status
- pending
