Turkey vs Belgium Match Prediction in the UEFA Nations League
Turkey
BelgiumMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.25 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.45 pending
Turkey host Belgium at Gursel Aksel Stadium in Izmir on 12 November in the fifth round of UEFA Nations League Group A1. Turkey are bottom without a point; Belgium are third, four behind leaders France. Kick-off is at 12:00 America/New_York time, with dry conditions and 19°C expected.
Turkey: a new coach inherits a fragile defence
Form, scoring and home results
Turkey have lost four successive matches since beating the USA 3:2, most recently 3:1 away to Italy. Across those five games, they failed to keep a clean sheet.
In four Nations League fixtures, Turkey scored two goals and conceded 11. BTTS occurred twice, while three matches finished Over 2.5 goals. Their two home games ended in defeats, with one goal scored and five conceded.
Confirmed starters and selection problems
Sergen Yalcin takes charge for the first time and has confirmed starts for Enes Unal and Ferdi Kadioglu, despite Kadioglu's thigh problem. Defender Abdulkerim Bardakci is suspended, while Zeki Celik is very unlikely to start.
Aral Simsir is receiving treatment for a thigh strain; Kenan Yildiz and Deniz Tiknaz are also injury doubts. Kerem Akturkoglu and Irfan Can Kahveci were omitted, while goalkeeper Berke Ozer returns. Yalcin says three or four players returning from injury will play limited spells.
- Italyaway1:3
- Belgiumaway0:3
- Italyhome1:4
- Francehome0:1
- USAhome3:2
Belgium: better results, uneven away defending
Attacking output and contrasting performances
Belgium have won two and lost three of their last five matches. Their group campaign includes a 2:0 win in Italy, but their latest match ended in a 4:1 defeat in France.
Across four Nations League fixtures, Belgium average 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, with two clean sheets. Their two away group games produced one win and one defeat, with three goals scored and four conceded. Only one of their four tournament matches featured BTTS, and two finished Over 2.5 goals.
Lukaku absent from the attacking options
Romelu Lukaku will miss the match with a minor thigh complaint, removing a scorer of one tournament goal. Kevin De Bruyne has two goals from one appearance, while Dodi Lukebakio has one assist from one appearance.
- Franceaway1:4
- Turkeyhome3:0
- Francehome0:1
- Italyaway2:0
- Spainaway1:2
The previous meeting favoured Belgium
The only official meeting in the last five years ended in a 3:0 home win for Belgium on 2 October. One match does not establish a recurring scoring pattern, and Turkey have home advantage for the return fixture.
- 02.10.2026Belgium3:0TurkeyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 03.06.2011Belgium1:1TurkeyUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 07.09.2010Turkey3:2BelgiumUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 10.10.2009Belgium2:0TurkeyWorld Cup Qualification. Group 5
- 10.09.2008Turkey1:1BelgiumWorld Cup Qualification. Group 5
Yalcin sets an explicit target
Yalcin says Turkey need three points and his entire plan is built around victory. That signals attacking intent without confirming a tactical system.
Our pick: protection against a draw
Our bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.48. Turkey have lost all four group matches, scoring 2 goals and conceding 11. Belgium have already beaten them 3:0 in this campaign, so the visitors have a stronger case than home advantage alone can overturn. Turkey's return of 1 goal across two home fixtures also limits the case for an immediate attacking recovery.
Sergen Yalcin takes charge for the first time, but a coaching change does not repair the defence by itself. According to media reports, Abdulkerim Bardakci is suspended, while Belgium will be without Romelu Lukaku because of thigh discomfort. The striker's absence reduces confidence in an outright away win; Belgium's two clean sheets in four group games still support backing them with draw protection.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.48 returns the stake if the match is drawn and wins if Belgium prevail. That protection suits visitors whose away campaign contains both a win and a defeat, rather than treating their advantage as decisive.
FAQ
When does Turkey — Belgium kick off?
The match starts on 12.11.2026 at 12:00 (New York), Gursel Aksel Stadium (Izmir).
What is the prediction for Turkey — Belgium?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.48.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Turkey win — 27%, draw — 23%, Belgium win — 50%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Italyaway1:3
- Belgiumaway0:3
- Italyhome1:4
- Francehome0:1
- USAhome3:2
- Franceaway1:4
- Turkeyhome3:0
- Francehome0:1
- Italyaway2:0
- Spainaway1:2
Standings · Group 1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 02.10.2026Belgium3:0TurkeyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 03.06.2011Belgium1:1TurkeyUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 07.09.2010Turkey3:2BelgiumUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 10.10.2009Belgium2:0TurkeyWorld Cup Qualification. Group 5
- 10.09.2008Turkey1:1BelgiumWorld Cup Qualification. Group 5
About the match
- 12 November · 12:00 New York
- Venue: Gursel Aksel Stadium (Izmir)
- Weather: 19° · precip. 0% · wind 4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 12.11 09:10
Belgium lead a stable market
Belgium are favourites, with a margin-free away-win probability of 52.4%. The line has shown no notable movement over the past 24 hours. BTTS carries a 63.2% probability, while Under 3.5 goals is at 57.5%.
The BTTS price assumes more frequent scoring at both ends than either team's four-match group record supports; Under 3.5 is the more defensible betting option.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.48
- Odds at prediction
- 1.41
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.48
- Potential win
- 48 $
- Status
- pending
