Italy vs France: UEFA Nations League Match Prediction
Italy
FranceItaly host France at Giuseppe Meazza in Milan in the fifth round of UEFA Nations League Group 1. France lead with 10 points from four matches; Italy have 7 and would draw level with a home win.
Italy: productive attack, vulnerable defensive record
Recent form and tournament position
Italy have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 5. That run includes a 4:1 away win over Turkey, a 1:1 draw in France and a 3:1 home win over Turkey. They scored in four of those five games and conceded in four.
In four Nations League matches, Italy have scored 8 goals and conceded 5, averaging 2 scored and 1.25 conceded. BTTS (both teams to score) landed in three, with no clean sheets. Their two tournament matches in Milan produced one win and one defeat, with 3 goals for and 3 against. Alessandro Bastoni has one tournament goal in two appearances.
Likely plan and available players
Italy favour a pragmatic approach built around defensive security, but their results show difficulty controlling opponents. Giacomo Raspadori, Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca and Mohamed Ali Zuma are unavailable. Midfielder Rolando Mandragora and defender Matteo Ruggeri are also injured.
Riccardo Cassano, Simone Lontani, Alfadjo Cissé and Mattia Liberali received their first calls for the November Nations League fixtures. The starting lineup and formation remain unconfirmed.
- Turkeyhome3:1
- Franceaway1:1
- Turkeyaway4:1
- Belgiumhome0:2
- Greeceaway1:0
France: stronger table profile, disrupted squad
Results, away record and attacking balance
France have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 8. The run includes a 4:6 defeat to England, clean-sheet wins over Turkey and Belgium, the draw with Italy and a 4:1 victory over Belgium. France scored in all five games and conceded in three.
In the tournament, France have scored 7 goals and conceded 2, with BTTS in two of four matches and two clean sheets. Away from home, they have two wins from two, scoring 2 goals without conceding. They share the group’s best defensive record with Belarus and Finland, with second-placed Italy three points behind them. Michael Olise has one goal in two tournament appearances, while Rayan Cherki has one assist in two matches.
Absences affecting the visitors
Aurélien Tchouaméni left the squad with a right thigh adductor injury, and Marcus Thuram is out with a hamstring problem. Kylian Mbappé missed the final training session before the trip to Milan while receiving recovery treatment; his availability remains unconfirmed.
Ousmane Dembélé, William Saliba, Jules Koundé, Maxence Lacroix, Manu Koné and Maghnes Akliouche are also unavailable. Elye-Junior Kroupi received his first call-up. France’s starting eleven and tactical shape remain unconfirmed.
- Belgiumhome4:1
- Italyhome1:1
- Belgiumaway1:0
- Turkeyaway1:0
- Englandhome4:6
Recent head-to-head pattern
Italy’s five-year official record against France is two wins, two draws and one defeat, with 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. Italy won 2:1 at home in September 2023 and 3:1 away in September 2024; France won 3:1 in Milan in November 2024. The latest meeting, played in France on 2 October 2026, was the draw mentioned above.
Four of the five meetings featured BTTS. The goalless draw in November 2023 was the only match in which neither side scored.
- 02.10.2026France1:1ItalyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 17.11.2024Italy1:3FranceUEFA Nations League - League A
- 06.09.2024France1:3ItalyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 20.11.2023France0:0ItalyUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 12.09.2023Italy2:1FranceUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
Squad news and the match context
France’s absences span defence, midfield and attack, affecting ball progression and finishing. Italy’s losses are concentrated more heavily in attack, reducing their options to change the forward line during the match.
The tactical contrast is between Italy’s need to close the gap at the top and France’s ability to protect their lead through the away defensive approach that has served them in this group.
Our prediction
Our pick is Away Asian handicap (0) 1.49. France have 10 points from four matches, with seven goals scored and two conceded. They have won both away games in the Nations League with a 2:0 aggregate score. Italy are three points behind, have conceded in four of their last five matches and have a 3:3 aggregate score from their two home group games.
A draw returns the stake: the latest meeting ended 1:1, and Italy have won two, drawn two and lost one of the last five official encounters.
France are without Aurélien Tchouaméni, Marcus Thuram, Maghnes Akliouche, William Saliba, Jules Koundé, Maxence Lacroix, Manu Koné and Ousmane Dembélé. Kylian Mbappé is doubtful after missing the final training session. Italy’s attacking options are reduced by injuries to Giacomo Raspadori, Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca and Mohamed Ali Zouma, limiting their ability to exploit France’s weakened defence. The expected score is 0:1.
Conclusion
Away Asian handicap (0) 1.49 is the selection, with draw protection preferable to backing an outright France win given their absences and the recent head-to-head results.
FAQ
When does Italy — France kick off?
The match starts on 12.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Giuseppe Meazza (Milan).
What is the prediction for Italy — France?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.49.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Italy win — 27%, draw — 26%, France win — 47%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Turkeyhome3:1
- Franceaway1:1
- Turkeyaway4:1
- Belgiumhome0:2
- Greeceaway1:0
- Belgiumhome4:1
- Italyhome1:1
- Belgiumaway1:0
- Turkeyaway1:0
- Englandhome4:6
Standings · Group 1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 02.10.2026France1:1ItalyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 17.11.2024Italy1:3FranceUEFA Nations League - League A
- 06.09.2024France1:3ItalyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 20.11.2023France0:0ItalyUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 12.09.2023Italy2:1FranceUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
About the match
- 12 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Giuseppe Meazza (Milan), Milan
- Weather: 12° · precip. 95% · wind 2.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 12.11 08:10
Market view and line direction
The 1X2 market assigns France a 48.4% win probability, Italy 25.5% and the draw 26.1%. Over the last 24 hours, France’s odds have lengthened while Italy’s and the draw’s have shortened, reducing the visitors’ market advantage despite their unbeaten tournament record.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 56.7% probability, but its odds have lengthened; Under 2.5 is at 43.3%, with shortening odds. BTTS Yes leads at 59.2%, although its odds are also drifting, while BTTS No is shortening.
The betting lean is Under 2.5 goals: France’s away defensive record and the attacking absences favour a lower total, despite Italy’s regular concessions.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.49
- Odds at prediction
- 1.46
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 60%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
