San Marino — Belarus forecast in the UEFA Nations League
San Marino
BelarusSan Marino host Belarus at the Serravalle Olympic Stadium in the fifth round of UEFA Nations League Group 1. The hosts have no points after four matches and trail the group leader by ten points; Belarus have seven points and remain in contention above them.
San Marino: defensive pressure and limited attacking resources
Recent form and home profile
San Marino have lost their last five matches. They scored in only 2 of those games and conceded in all 5. Their Nations League record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 1 goal scored and 16 conceded.
At home in the tournament, they have 2 defeats, 0 goals scored and 10 conceded. The individual home scorelines are not specified.
Strengths, weaknesses and squad situation
San Marino scored against Albania in their most recent match before a stoppage-time penalty condemned them to a narrow defeat. That performance could give them a confidence boost despite their limited attacking output.
Every tournament match has gone Over the stated total line, while BTTS landed in only one of four. They have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Alberto Riccardi will miss the match with a serious meniscus injury.
- Albaniaaway1:2
- Belarusaway0:4
- Albaniahome0:3
- Finlandhome0:7
- Azerbaijanhome1:2
Belarus: stronger table position and a controlled defensive record
Results, away numbers and tournament standing
Belarus have won their last two matches, beating San Marino and then Finland 1:0. Across their last five games, they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat. Their tournament record is 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with a 5:2 goal balance.
Away from home, Belarus have 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring no goals and conceding 2 in two fixtures. Their attacking production on the road has fallen short of their home returns, although the away sample remains small.
Key players, absences and tactical balance
Artem Shumansky has 2 goals and 1 assist in 2 tournament appearances, Artem Kontsevoy has 2 goals in 1 match, and Max Ebong Ngome has 1 goal in 2 matches. Belarus have kept three clean sheets in four tournament matches.
Coach Viktor Goncharenko says Belarus approach every match aiming for three points. He described San Marino as organized and aggressive, emphasizing possession control, attacking execution and finishing. His assessment suggests Belarus will need to break down a compact defense rather than rely on transitions.
- Finlandhome1:0
- San Marinohome4:0
- Finlandaway0:0
- Albaniaaway0:2
- Burkina Fasohome2:2
The head-to-head record
The teams have met officially once in the last five years: Belarus won 4:0 at home on 3 October 2026. That remains the series’ only multi-goal margin, but it does not resolve the visitors’ lack of away goals in this tournament.
San Marino average 0.25 goals scored and 4 conceded per tournament match; Belarus average 1.25 scored and 0.5 conceded. BTTS has not landed in any of Belarus’s four tournament matches.
- 03.10.2026Belarus4:0San MarinoUEFA Nations League - League C
- 18.11.2018San Marino0:2BelarusUEFA Nations League - League D. Group 2
- 08.09.2018Belarus5:0San MarinoUEFA Nations League - League D
Team news and pre-match views
Belarus will be without the suspended Shumansky and German Barkovsky, while Vitali Lisakovich is injured. Vladislav Morozov has been called up to replace Lisakovich, but his starting place is unconfirmed.
Belarus completed a pre-match session at the Olympic Stadium in Serravalle.
Our Prediction
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.28. Belarus have already beaten San Marino 4:0 in this Nations League campaign, while the hosts have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five matches. Across four group games, San Marino allowed 16 goals, including 10 in two home fixtures, and have not collected a point. That defensive record is the key factor behind the selection.
Belarus have scored five times in the group, with two goals each from Artem Shumansky and Artem Kontsevoy. Shumansky is suspended, while German Barkovsky and Vitali Lisakovich are also unavailable, according to media reports. Vladislav Morozov has been called up to replace Lisakovich. Even with the absences, Belarus created a four-goal margin in the previous meeting and face a side that conceded in all five recent games. The expected score is 0:3.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) is supported by San Marino’s 16 goals conceded in the group and a minimum of two allowed in five consecutive matches. Belarus should produce at least two goals again in Serravalle.
FAQ
When does San Marino — Belarus kick off?
The match starts on 12.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), San Marino (Serravalle).
What is the prediction for San Marino — Belarus?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.28.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: San Marino win — 5%, draw — 11%, Belarus win — 83%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Albaniaaway1:2
- Belarusaway0:4
- Albaniahome0:3
- Finlandhome0:7
- Azerbaijanhome1:2
- Finlandhome1:0
- San Marinohome4:0
- Finlandaway0:0
- Albaniaaway0:2
- Burkina Fasohome2:2
Standings · Gruppa 1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 9 |
| 2 | Belarus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 3 | Finland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9:2 | 7 |
| 4 | San Marino | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:16 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 03.10.2026Belarus4:0San MarinoUEFA Nations League - League C
- 18.11.2018San Marino0:2BelarusUEFA Nations League - League D. Group 2
- 08.09.2018Belarus5:0San MarinoUEFA Nations League - League D
About the match
- 12 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: San Marino (Serravalle)
- Weather: 17° · precip. 25% · wind 0.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 12.11 06:10
Market assessment and expected match pattern
Belarus are the clear 1X2 favorite. The market assigns 82.4% to an away win, 12% to a draw and 5.6% to a San Marino win, with no notable movement over the last 24 hours. Several listed standings positions are tied, so the points and goal records offer a clearer comparison than the rank labels.
The total-goals market favors Over 2.5 at 58.3%, against 41.7% for Under 2.5. BTTS “No” carries 67.3%, compared with 32.7% for “Yes”. The unchanged lines show no material market adjustment for the absences.
BTTS “No” is the preferred bet: San Marino’s limited scoring and Belarus’s clean-sheet record support it more directly than the visitors’ goalless away record supports Over 2.5.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.28
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
