England vs Croatia: UEFA Nations League Match Prediction
England
CroatiaEngland host Croatia at Wembley in London on 12 November in the fifth round of UEFA Nations League Group 3. England are second with nine points, three behind Spain; Croatia are third with three points. The hosts are chasing the group lead.
England: scoring power and defensive changes
Recent form and home results
England have won four of their last five matches. Their latest outing brought a 3:0 home victory over Czech Republic. Across two home games in this competition, they have one win and one defeat, with five goals scored and three conceded; both away fixtures ended in victories without conceding.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- England average 3.5 goals per match in this Nations League campaign, giving their attack substantial output across four fixtures.
- Three clean sheets show that their results have not depended solely on outscoring opponents.
- The 2:3 home defeat by Spain accounts for every goal England have conceded in the group.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in three of four matches, but BTTS landed only once: high totals have usually been driven by England.
Personnel and attacking contributors
Marc Guehi is out with a thigh injury, with Dan Burn called up as his replacement; James Hill replaces Ezri Konsa. Cole Palmer was omitted because of competition for places, while Jobe Bellingham joins Jude in the squad. Harry Kane has two goals and one assist in two tournament appearances, Bukayo Saka two goals in one, and Jude Bellingham one goal and three assists in two.
- Czech Republichome3:0
- Croatiaaway7:0
- Czech Republicaway2:0
- Spainhome2:3
- Franceaway6:4
Croatia: goals conceded outweigh attacking returns
A difficult sequence
Croatia have lost four of their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 1:2 home defeat by Spain. Away from home in this tournament, they beat Czech Republic 2:1 before losing 1:4 to Spain: three goals scored and five conceded across those trips.
Where the balance breaks down
- Croatia concede 3.5 goals per tournament match, leaving their attack an unusually high recovery burden.
- They have no clean sheets in four group fixtures and have conceded in all five recent matches.
- They scored in four of those five games, so attacking returns have survived despite the defeats.
- All four group matches went Over 2.5 goals, with BTTS in three; the sample remains small.
Absences across two units
Andrej Kramaric misses the camp through health problems, while forward Franjo Ivanovic is unavailable with a mild concussion. Defender Marin Pongracic is also out with a right hamstring injury. Those absences remove options from an attack averaging one goal per group match and a defence already conceding heavily.
- Spainhome1:2
- Englandhome0:7
- Spainaway1:4
- Czech Republicaway2:1
- Portugalaway1:2
Recent meetings favour England
England won both official meetings recorded over the past five years: 4:2 at home in June and 7:0 away in October. That is a clear recent advantage, although two matches cannot establish a dependable scoring pattern on their own.
- 03.10.2026Croatia0:7EnglandUEFA Nations League - League A
- 17.06.2026England4:2CroatiaWorld Cup
- 13.06.2021England1:0CroatiaUEFA European Championship
- 18.11.2018England2:1CroatiaUEFA Nations League - League A
- 12.10.2018Croatia0:0EnglandUEFA Nations League - League A
Selection decisions shape the build-up
Croatia coach Slaven Bilic said Kramaric should miss this camp to recover fully rather than rush back. Confirmed starting lineups, formations, suspension details, independent expert opinions and comparative strength ratings are not supplied.
England to clear the two-goal threshold
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.3. England have scored 14 goals in four Nations League matches, while Croatia have conceded 14 over the same stretch. The hosts have scored at least twice in each of their last five fixtures, so this bet does not require a repeat of October’s seven-goal win: two England goals are enough, regardless of Croatia’s response.
Marin Pongracic’s absence with a hamstring injury, according to media reports, removes a defensive option for the visitors. England’s attacking returns are spread across several players: Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka each have two tournament goals, while Jude Bellingham has three assists. That variety matters against a defence without a clean sheet in four group games. The sample remains small, so a routine two-goal return is a more measured expectation than another rout. Predicted score: 2:0.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.3 is our selection: it targets England’s scoring output without requiring a clean sheet or a particular winning margin.
FAQ
When does England — Croatia kick off?
The match starts on 12.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Wembley (London).
What is the prediction for England — Croatia?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.3.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: England win — 73%, draw — 16%, Croatia win — 10%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Czech Republichome3:0
- Croatiaaway7:0
- Czech Republicaway2:0
- Spainhome2:3
- Franceaway6:4
- Spainhome1:2
- Englandhome0:7
- Spainaway1:4
- Czech Republicaway2:1
- Portugalaway1:2
Standings · Group 3
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:14 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:10 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 03.10.2026Croatia0:7EnglandUEFA Nations League - League A
- 17.06.2026England4:2CroatiaWorld Cup
- 13.06.2021England1:0CroatiaUEFA European Championship
- 18.11.2018England2:1CroatiaUEFA Nations League - League A
- 12.10.2018Croatia0:0EnglandUEFA Nations League - League A
About the match
- 12 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Wembley (London), London
Odds
Odds updated 12.11 09:00
Market confidence centres on the hosts
England are firm favourites, according to the market probabilities shown in the table. Over the past 24 hours, the home price has shortened and the draw price has drifted; the away line is broadly unchanged.
The goals markets are less decisive. Under 3.5 carries a 56.2% probability, while BTTS No stands at 51.6%. Neither line has moved materially, separating strong confidence in England’s result from a much narrower view of the scoring pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
