TPS vs KalPa Prediction: Finland Elite League Preview
TPS
KalPaMore picks
- Period 3: No draw 1.33 pending
- Period 3: Not: TPS win and total over 1.5 1.25 pending
TPS host KalPa at Gatorade Center in Turku. TPS have 31 points from 19 matches and KalPa 25 from 18. The game has direct value in the standings, with KalPa able to reduce the gap on the hosts.
TPS: home advantage against an uneven recent run
Recent form and scoring profile
TPS have won 2 of their last 5 matches and lost 3. They have scored and conceded in all five games: a 4:3 home win over Ilves, losses by 1:4, 1:3 and 4:5, then a 2:1 home victory over Pelicans on 30 October.
The listed TPS home results include a 4:3 win over Ilves and a 2:1 victory over Pelicans on 30 October. Their listed away results include losses by 1:4, 1:3 and 4:5.
Where TPS can gain and where they are exposed
- TPS scored in every recent match.
- The league record is 53 goals for and 48 against in 19 matches.
- Pelicanshome2:1
- Kiekko-Espooaway4:5
- Lukkohome1:3
- Lukkoaway1:4
- Ilveshome4:3
KalPa: stronger momentum, with a clear away vulnerability
Results before the trip to Turku
KalPa have won 3 of their last 5 matches. Their results were a 2:5 loss and a 5:1 win against Oulun Karpat, home wins over Vaasan Sport and Jokerit, then a 0:1 away defeat to Ilves. They scored in 4 of 5 matches and conceded in all five.
KalPa’s two listed home games produced 9 goals for and 3 against. Across three away matches, they scored 7 and conceded 7.
Strengths, limits and personnel situation
- KalPa scored 14 goals in their three wins.
- The last two home wins ended 5:2 and 4:1, a combined 9:3 goal difference.
- Their two recent away meetings with Karpat ended 2:5 and 5:1.
- The league record is 46 goals for and 41 against in 18 matches.
No fresh lineup, injury or suspension facts were found for KalPa. The starting goaltender, save percentage, power-play rate and penalty-kill rate are unspecified. The comparison therefore rests on recent scores and home-away splits.
- Ilvesaway0:1
- Jokerithome4:1
- Vaasan Sporthome5:2
- Oulun Karpataway5:1
- Oulun Karpataway2:5
Head-to-head record favours KalPa over the longer sample
Across 14 official meetings in the last five years, TPS have won 6 and KalPa 8, with no draws recorded in the supplied summary. The latest eight meetings show KalPa winning 5 times and TPS 3 times. Those games produced 35 goals for KalPa and 14 for TPS; KalPa’s 7:3 win and 5:0 victory heavily influence the aggregate.
The last four listed meetings at TPS ended in three KalPa wins and one TPS win. TPS scored 7 and conceded 10. The series combines a KalPa advantage with several low-scoring results rather than a stable total pattern.
- 03.02.2026KalPa7:3TPSFinland. Elite League
- 27.01.2026TPS3:2KalPaFinland. Elite League
- 10.10.2025KalPa3:4TPSFinland. Elite League
- 20.09.2025TPS0:3KalPaFinland. Elite League
- 12.03.2025KalPa1:0TPSFinland. Elite League
Available news and motivation before faceoff
Fresh news, expert opinions, confirmed injuries, suspensions and projected lineups were not found in the supplied facts. No verified personnel change can be applied to either side.
TPS sit eighth with 31 points, while KalPa are twelfth with 25 after playing one fewer game. TPS need points to protect their position; KalPa need them to reduce the gap and avoid another quiet attacking performance like the 0:1 loss to Ilves.
Line-ups
TPS
Substitutes: 10. Niklas Ylitalo, 30. Markus Ruusu
Coach: Toni Soderholm
KalPa
Substitutes: 35. Rasmus Korhonen, 94. Tuukka Korkiakoski
Coach: Sami Tervonen
Our prediction
TPS host KalPa at Gatorade Center. TPS have 31 points from 19 matches; KalPa have 25 from 18. Our bet is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.33. The market’s 83.1% estimate for both teams to score in the full game does not eliminate the value of targeting the opening period.
TPS have scored in all five recent matches, but their first-period profile supports a cautious start rather than an immediate exchange of goals. KalPa’s latest away match ended in a 1:0 defeat to Ilves, and they failed to score. Their last five results across all competitions include a 2:5 loss and a 5:1 win, showing a wider performance range. TPS have conceded in all five recent games, but their last home victory over Pelicans finished 2:1, while KalPa’s latest match was again decided by a single goal. The expected score after the first period is 1:0.
Conclusion
Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.33 is supported by KalPa’s blank in their latest away outing and the low-scoring character of the teams’ most recent matches.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Pelicanshome2:1
- Kiekko-Espooaway4:5
- Lukkohome1:3
- Lukkoaway1:4
- Ilveshome4:3
- Ilvesaway0:1
- Jokerithome4:1
- Vaasan Sporthome5:2
- Oulun Karpataway5:1
- Oulun Karpataway2:5
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Oulun Karpat | 20 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 53:52 | 33 |
| 8 | TPS | 19 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 53:48 | 31 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 20 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 61:49 | 31 |
| 10 | Tappara | 19 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 51:46 | 28 |
| 11 | HIFK | 19 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 53:56 | 27 |
| 12 | KalPa | 18 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 46:41 | 25 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 17 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 40:38 | 24 |
Head-to-head
- 03.02.2026KalPa7:3TPSFinland. Elite League
- 27.01.2026TPS3:2KalPaFinland. Elite League
- 10.10.2025KalPa3:4TPSFinland. Elite League
- 20.09.2025TPS0:3KalPaFinland. Elite League
- 12.03.2025KalPa1:0TPSFinland. Elite League
About the match
- 9 November · 11:30 New York
- Venue: Gatorade Center (Turku)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view: modest home preference and restrained totals
The market makes TPS a narrow favourite: the home-win probability is 48%, compared with 22.7% for a draw and 29.4% for an away win. The 1X2 distribution indicates a competitive game rather than a strong home expectation. There has been no meaningful line movement on the main result, while the away side has attracted support through a falling price.
The total market leans toward Under 5.5 at 56.4%, against 43.6% for Over 5.5. BTTS is assessed at 83.1%, matching the defensive records: TPS and KalPa both conceded in all five recent matches. The figures support goals at both ends within a controlled overall total.
Our prediction
- Market
- Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No
- Odds
- 1.32
- Odds at prediction
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.32
- Potential win
- 32 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.32
- Status
- pending