Sabadell — Real Sociedad II prediction: Segunda Division analysis
Sabadell
Real Sociedad IIMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.4 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (6.5) 1.38 pending
Sabadell host Real Sociedad II at Nova Creu Alta in the thirteenth round of Segunda Division. Sabadell are twelfth with 17 points from 12 matches, while Real Sociedad II are nineteenth with 11. A home win would move Sabadell closer to the top-six race; the visitors need points to ease the pressure from their poor sequence.
Sabadell: solid home record, limited scoring output
Recent form and tactical profile
Sabadell have taken one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five matches. They scored in three games and conceded in four. The latest result was a 1:2 defeat away to Albacete Balompie, preceded by a 1:1 home draw with Tenerife, a 0:1 loss at Burgos, a 2:1 away win over AD Ceuta and a 0:0 draw with Andorra.
The home split is stronger than the overall sequence. Sabadell are unbeaten at home in the league, with 3 wins and 2 draws, 8 goals scored and 4 conceded. Across the campaign, they have scored 12 goals and conceded 11; only 4 of 12 matches exceeded the higher-goal line, and they recorded 4 clean sheets. Their attack has been sufficient to collect points, but the season average of 1 goal per match leaves little margin for defensive errors.
- Home league record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats.
- Home goal balance: 8 scored and 4 conceded in 5 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of 12 league games.
- Angel Baena Perez leads the listed scorers with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 appearances.
Squad availability and key contributors
Angel Baena Perez is the main attacking reference, while Eneko Aguilar Elizalde and Oscar Sanz have each scored once in 5 matches. No confirmed injuries, suspensions, probable starting eleven or formation are available for Sabadell, so individual availability and the expected structure cannot be specified.
Sabadell’s record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats. Their 17 points leave them level with Las Palmas and within reach of the upper group. Their 0.92 goals conceded per match is among the stronger defensive figures in the supplied standings.
- Albacete Balompieaway1:2
- Tenerifehome1:1
- Burgosaway0:1
- AD Ceutaaway2:1
- Andorra Andorra la Vellahome0:0
Real Sociedad II: attacking flashes, vulnerable defence
Recent results and away tendencies
Real Sociedad II have won once and lost four times in their last five matches. They scored in four games and conceded in four. The sequence included defeats against Granada, Celta Fortuna, UD Almeria and Las Palmas before a 1:0 home win over Girona. Real Sociedad II had 1 clean sheet in their first 12 league matches.
The away record is mixed: 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. The wider season figures explain their low position: 15 goals for, 22 against, 1.25 scored per match and 1.83 conceded. Seven of their 12 league matches went above the higher-goal line, and both teams scored in 8. Their defensive rate is the main weakness against a home side that has not lost at Nova Creu Alta.
- League record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats.
- Away goal balance: 9 scored and 12 conceded in 6 matches.
- Only 1 clean sheet in 12 league fixtures.
- Both teams scored in 8 of 12 matches, the highest relevant attacking trend in this pairing.
Squad news and attacking options
Lander Astiazaran is the leading listed scorer with 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 appearances. Jon Balda has 1 goal in 5 matches, while Arkaitz Mariezkurrena has 1 in 3. No confirmed injury list, suspension information, probable lineup or tactical formation is available for Real Sociedad II.
The visitors are nineteenth on 11 points, level with Andorra but ahead of Cadiz. Their 18-point gap to league leaders UD Almeria shows the distance from the top. The recent home victory over Girona is a limited positive after four consecutive defeats.
- Gironahome1:0
- Las Palmasaway0:1
- UD Almeriahome2:4
- Celta Fortunaaway1:4
- Granadahome2:3
Motivation and available match context
Sabadell feel comfortable after promotion and believe they can challenge for a top-six position. That motivation fits their table position and unbeaten home record, although the last two away defeats show that they have conceded in both matches.
Real Sociedad II returned to Segunda Division in 2025 and finished fifteenth last season. Their decline followed an opening spell with two wins and two draws, after which several defeats dropped them into the relegation zone. The 1:0 victory over Girona interrupts that run but does not remove the season-long defensive problems. No further match-specific assessment is available.
Our Prediction
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.28. Sabadell have not lost any of their five home league matches this season, collecting three wins and two draws while scoring 8 goals. Their overall attacking numbers are modest, with 12 goals in 12 rounds, but they have scored 8 goals in five home matches.
Real Sociedad II are the right opponent for this line. They have conceded 22 goals in 12 matches, an average of 1.83, and kept a clean sheet only once. Their last five results include four defeats, while away league matches have produced 12 conceded in six games. Sabadell scored in three of their last five fixtures, and the home setting reduces the risk of a blank. The likely score is 2:1, which covers the selection with room for a full win.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.28 is supported by Sabadell’s unbeaten home record and Real Sociedad II’s defensive rate of 1.83 goals conceded per game. A Sabadell goal is the minimum expected outcome, while two would turn the pick into a winning result.
FAQ
When does Sabadell — Real Sociedad II kick off?
The match starts on 09.11.2026 at 14:30 (New York), Nova Creu Alta (Sabadell).
What is the prediction for Sabadell — Real Sociedad II?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.28.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Sabadell win — 54%, draw — 26%, Real Sociedad II win — 20%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Albacete Balompieaway1:2
- Tenerifehome1:1
- Burgosaway0:1
- AD Ceutaaway2:1
- Andorra Andorra la Vellahome0:0
- Gironahome1:0
- Las Palmasaway0:1
- UD Almeriahome2:4
- Celta Fortunaaway1:4
- Granadahome2:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Real Valladolid | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22:20 | 18 |
| 12 | Sabadell | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12:11 | 17 |
| 13 | Las Palmas | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17:21 | 17 |
| 18 | Andorra Andorra la Vella | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17:22 | 11 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15:22 | 11 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16:18 | 10 |
About the match
- 9 November · 14:30 New York
- Venue: Nova Creu Alta (Sabadell), Sabadelʹ
- Weather: 16° · precip. 0% · wind 0.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 09.11 12:10
Market view and goal-line balance
The market makes Sabadell the clear home favourite, assigning a 56% estimated probability to a home win, compared with 25% for a draw and 19.1% for an away win. The line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
The goal markets are almost perfectly balanced: the higher-goal outcome is assessed at 49.5% and the lower-goal outcome at 50.5%. The both-teams-to-score market is equally close, with “Yes” at 50.1% and “No” at 49.9%. The balance reflects two opposing profiles: Sabadell have scored 8 and conceded 4 at home, while Real Sociedad II have conceded 22 across the campaign and have seen both teams score in two-thirds of their league fixtures.
The 1X2 margin is 5.4%, so the home-favourite position indicates market preference rather than certainty. Sabadell’s unbeaten home record and higher table position support that view, while their low scoring rate and frequent draws limit market confidence.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.28
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.28
- Potential win
- 28 $
- Status
- pending
