Baltika Kaliningrad vs Dynamo Makhachkala: Premier League Prediction
Baltika Kaliningrad
Dynamo MakhachkalaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.34 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5) 1.31 pending
Baltika host Dynamo Makhachkala at Rostec Arena on 8 November in Premier League round 14. Baltika are eighth with 17 points, four ahead of 11th-placed Dynamo. A home win would move Baltika above Rubin; Dynamo could reduce the gap to one point. Kick-off is at 12:45 America/New_York.
Baltika: stronger results, limited home advantage
Recent form and scoring patterns
Baltika’s last five matches in all competitions produced two wins, two draws and one defeat. Their latest match was a 2:1 league win over Akron, after a 0:0 draw with Rostov, a 1:1 draw at Krasnodar and a 2:3 cup defeat by Zenit. They scored in four of those five matches.
Where the hosts are strong and vulnerable
Baltika concede 1.08 goals per league match, compared with 2.00 for Dynamo. They have kept four clean sheets in 13 league games. Their home record is weaker: two wins, two draws and three defeats, with eight goals scored and nine conceded. BTTS has occurred in eight league fixtures and Over 2.5 in seven.
Selection and workload
Andrey Talalaev said the team’s main players are tired. Loris Mouyokolo, Ivan Belikov and Brayan Gil Hurtado each have one league goal in four appearances; those figures do not establish the likely attacking selection.
- Akron Tolyattihome2:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome2:3
- Krasnodaraway1:1
- Rostovhome0:0
- Krylia Sovetovaway2:0
Dynamo: scoring drought and defensive losses
Five games without a victory
Dynamo have lost four and drawn one of their last five matches. They have lost their last three games without scoring against Zenit, Krylia Sovetov and, most recently, Rostov. Their league away record contains two wins and five losses, with 10 goals scored and 17 conceded.
Defensive exposure and goal trends
Dynamo have conceded 26 league goals and lost eight of 13 matches. Nine fixtures finished Over 2.5 and eight featured BTTS. Their 16 league goals are one fewer than Baltika’s, while their defensive record separates the teams in the table.
Three confirmed absentees
Striker Gamid Agalarov is suspended for accumulated yellow cards. Defender Makhmudzhon Makhamadzhonov is also absent after his red-card appeal was rejected. Fellow defender Idar Shumakhov is sidelined with a cruciate ligament injury until 14 November.
- Rostovhome0:3
- Krylia Sovetovaway0:2
- Zenit Saint Petersburgaway0:2
- Akron Tolyattihome1:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome1:2
Previous meetings favour Baltika
Baltika are unbeaten in five official meetings over the last five years, winning twice and drawing three times. Three meetings featured BTTS. The latest was Baltika’s 2:1 home cup victory in August; the previous home league meeting ended 2:0. Friendly matches are excluded.
- 20.08.2026Baltika Kaliningrad2:1Dynamo MakhachkalaRussian Cup (Group Stage)
- 05.04.2026Dynamo Makhachkala2:2Baltika KaliningradRussia. Premier League
- 05.10.2025Baltika Kaliningrad2:0Dynamo MakhachkalaRussia. Premier League
- 15.02.2024Baltika Kaliningrad2:1Dynamo MakhachkalaClub Friendlies
- 02.04.2023Dynamo Makhachkala0:0Baltika KaliningradRussian Championship. League 1
Coaching continuity amid psychological pressure
Dynamo general director Shamil Gazizov denied that Vadim Evseev is leaving for Lokomotiv. He also acknowledged that the winless run is affecting the squad psychologically, while saying the team travel to Kaliningrad seeking points and believing they can win. Talalaev praised his players after the Akron victory.
Line-ups
Baltika Kaliningrad
Starting XI: 1. Yevgeny Latyshonok, 4. Nathan Gassama, 7. Konstantin Shiltsov, 10. Iliya Petrov, 21. Eduardo Anderson, 22. Mingiyan Beveev, 24. Loris Mouyokolo, 26. Ivan Belikov, 73. Maksim Petrov, 77. Eldar Civic, 91. Brayan Gil Hurtado
Substitutes: 2. Sergey Varatynov, 3. Ilya Kirsch, 5. Aymane Mourid, 8. Andrey Mendel, 9. Chinonso Offor Nnamdi, 11. Ilya Porokhov, 14. Stefan Kovac, 18. Fahd Moufi, 42. Vladislav Pospelov, 68. Mihail Ryadno, 69. Egor Golenkov, 81. Ivan Kukushkin
Coach: Andrei Talalayev
Dynamo Makhachkala
Starting XI: 6. Marat Apshatsev, 10. Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad, 11. Pinto Valdemiro, 14. Daler Kuzyayev, 19. Kirill Zinovich, 24. Andres Alarcon, 39. Timur Magomedov, 47. Nikita Glushkov, 72. Aleksandr Sandrachuk, 77. Temirkan Sundukov, 99. Mutalip Alibekov
Substitutes: 8. Vladimir Khubulov, 9. Razhab Magomedov, 13. Soslan Kagermazov, 21. Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov, 28. Serder Serderov, 30. Dmitri Aleksandrov, 33. Nikita Karabashev, 43. Iljas Ahmedov, 52. Egor Smelov, 88. Daniil Lesovoj
Coach: Vadim Evseev
Our Prediction
Baltika Kaliningrad should reach at least one goal against Dynamo Makhachkala at Rostec Arena. The visitors have major defensive absences: Idar Shumakhov is injured, while Mahmudzhan Makhamadzhonov is suspended after a red card. Dynamo have conceded 26 goals in 13 league matches, an average of 2.00 per game, and have allowed goals in all five of their latest matches in every competition.
That defensive profile meets a reliable attacking trend from Baltika. The hosts have scored in four of their last five fixtures, including twice against Akron in their latest league game, and have found the net in each of the last five official meetings with Dynamo. Baltika’s home league record is modest at 8 goals in 7 matches, but the weakened away defence and three consecutive Dynamo defeats without a goal make the one-goal threshold preferable to a more aggressive team or total market. Our expected score is 1:0 to Baltika.
Our bet — Individual Total 1 Over (1) for 1.41
Final Verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) is supported by Dynamo’s 2.00 goals conceded per league match, five straight games allowing a goal and defensive absences. Baltika’s minimum target is one goal at home.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Akron Tolyattihome2:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome2:3
- Krasnodaraway1:1
- Rostovhome0:0
- Krylia Sovetovaway2:0
- Rostovhome0:3
- Krylia Sovetovaway0:2
- Zenit Saint Petersburgaway0:2
- Akron Tolyattihome1:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rubin Kazan | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14:18 | 18 |
| 8 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17:14 | 17 |
| 9 | Orenburg | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 14:12 | 17 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 17:20 | 15 |
| 11 | Akhmat | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 16:26 | 13 |
| 13 | Rodina Moscow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15:29 | 12 |
Head-to-head
- 20.08.2026Baltika Kaliningrad2:1Dynamo MakhachkalaRussian Cup (Group Stage)
- 05.04.2026Dynamo Makhachkala2:2Baltika KaliningradRussia. Premier League
- 05.10.2025Baltika Kaliningrad2:0Dynamo MakhachkalaRussia. Premier League
- 15.02.2024Baltika Kaliningrad2:1Dynamo MakhachkalaClub Friendlies
- 02.04.2023Dynamo Makhachkala0:0Baltika KaliningradRussian Championship. League 1
About the match
- 8 November · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Rostec Arena (Kaliningrad)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market preference meets contrasting goal trends
Baltika are favourites in 1X2, with a margin-free home-win probability of 55.9%; the draw stands at 26.8% and an away win at 17.3%. Under 2.5 is favoured at 61%, despite Dynamo’s frequent higher-scoring league matches. BTTS No is assessed at 58.7%, matching the visitors’ recent scoring drought. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.39
- Odds at prediction
- 1.41
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 70%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.39
- Potential win
- 39 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.37
- Status
- pending