Spain vs England Match Prediction for the UEFA Nations League
Spain
EnglandSpain host England at Madrid’s Metropolitano on 15 November in the sixth round of UEFA Nations League Group 3. First place is at stake: the hosts have won all five fixtures, while England arrive with four victories. Kick-off is scheduled for 14:45 America/New_York.
Spain: winning results, fewer clean sheets
Recent form and home advantage
Spain’s last four results were 4:1 against Croatia, 3:1 against Czech Republic, 2:1 away to Croatia and 2:0 away to Czech Republic. Their two home fixtures produced seven goals scored and two conceded. The supplied standings place Spain first and England second, three points apart, but cover four matches rather than five.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- Spain average 2.8 goals scored per tournament match and have scored in every appearance.
- They concede 1.0 per match, with just one clean sheet.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in four of five fixtures.
Squad absences and returning players
Rodri, Dani Olmo, Eric Garcia and Barrenetxea are injured; Gavi is outside the squad. Lamine Yamal returns after a knee injury, while Mikel Oyarzabal is also available again. Alvaro Valles, Jacobo Ramon and Marc Roca have received first call-ups. Rodri’s absence affects selection, while the attacking returns broaden selection. Spain’s reported unbeaten run now stands at 43 matches.
- Czech Republicaway2:0
- Croatiaaway2:1
- Czech Republichome3:1
- Croatiahome4:1
- Englandaway3:2
England: stronger defensive returns
Four victories since the opening defeat
England followed their loss to Spain with wins of 2:0 away to Czech Republic, 7:0 away to Croatia, 3:0 against Czech Republic and 2:1 against Croatia. Both away fixtures ended in victories without conceding, although the seven-goal result accounts for most of their nine away goals.
Scoring strength and sample limits
- England average 3.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded across five tournament fixtures.
- Three clean sheets contrast with BTTS in only two matches.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred four times, but the sample is too small to treat that frequency as a settled probability.
Key attackers and the coach’s approach
Harry Kane has two goals and one assist in three appearances; Morgan Rogers also has two goals in three, while Bukayo Saka scored twice in his single appearance. Thomas Tuchel has urged England to attack Spain and learn from the defeat by Argentina. Kane says first place remains within reach.
- Croatiahome2:1
- Czech Republichome3:0
- Croatiaaway7:0
- Czech Republicaway2:0
- Spainhome2:3
Recent meetings favour Spain
Spain won both listed competitive meetings over the past five years: 2:1 in July 2024 and 3:2 away in September 2026. Both sides scored each time. England’s only defeat in this Nations League campaign therefore came against these opponents, who scored three of the four goals England have conceded.
- 26.09.2026England2:3SpainUEFA Nations League - League A
- 14.07.2024Spain2:1EnglandUEFA European Championship (Play-off)
- 15.10.2018Spain2:3EnglandUEFA Nations League - League A
- 08.09.2018England1:2SpainUEFA Nations League - League A
- 15.11.2016England2:2SpainFriendlies
Preparation time and outside opinion
Both teams last played on 12 November.
Our pick for Madrid
Our selection is Handicap 1 (0) 1.32. Spain’s five wins from five make them the stronger side to back at the Metropolitano, but the draw protection matters against an England team arriving with four consecutive victories. The hosts have already beaten this opponent away; backing them without requiring another outright win is the more measured approach.
Spain’s attacking returns must be balanced against just one clean sheet in this campaign. England have scored 16 goals in five matches, so the hosts cannot rely on shutting them out. According to media reports, Rodri and Dani Olmo are absent, while Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal return: that restores attacking options. Spain’s seven goals across two home fixtures suggest they can still create enough to win, even if England score. A likely score is 2:1 to Spain.
The betting verdict
Handicap 1 (0) 1.32 backs Spain’s home attacking edge while returning the stake if the match finishes level. England’s scoring threat makes that protection preferable to relying solely on a home victory.
FAQ
When does Spain — England kick off?
The match starts on 15.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Metropolitano (Madrid).
What is the prediction for Spain — England?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.32.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Spain win — 55%, draw — 23%, England win — 22%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Czech Republicaway2:0
- Croatiaaway2:1
- Czech Republichome3:1
- Croatiahome4:1
- Englandaway3:2
- Croatiahome2:1
- Czech Republichome3:0
- Croatiaaway7:0
- Czech Republicaway2:0
- Spainhome2:3
Standings · Group 3
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:5 | 12 |
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:14 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:10 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 26.09.2026England2:3SpainUEFA Nations League - League A
- 14.07.2024Spain2:1EnglandUEFA European Championship (Play-off)
- 15.10.2018Spain2:3EnglandUEFA Nations League - League A
- 08.09.2018England1:2SpainUEFA Nations League - League A
- 15.11.2016England2:2SpainFriendlies
About the match
- 15 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Metropolitano (Madrid), Madrid
- Weather: 12° · precip. 5% · wind 2.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 14.11 15:00
Spain remain favourites as support shifts
The margin-adjusted 1X2 market assigns Spain a 54.7% chance, the draw 23.4% and England 21.9%. Over the past 24 hours, support has moved towards England and away from Spain, with the draw unchanged. That leaves the hosts favourites, but with less market confidence than a day earlier.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 58.7% probability and BTTS 58.9%; neither line has moved materially. The goals markets lean towards scoring at both ends despite England’s clean-sheet record. Spain’s recent meetings with England support that reading, while the visitors’ defensive returns against other opponents provide the counterweight.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.32
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
