France vs Turkey: UEFA Nations League Match Prediction
France
TurkeyFrance host Turkey at Matmut-Atlantique in Bordeaux on 15 November in the sixth round of the UEFA Nations League group stage. France lead the visitors by ten points in Group 1; Turkey have no points after four matches.
France: stronger record, but several absences
France have won three of their last five matches, drawn one and lost one, scoring 8 goals and conceding 5. They scored in all five and kept two clean sheets. The results include a 4:1 home win over Belgium and a 1:0 away victory against Belgium. Their latest match ended in a 1:3 defeat in Italy, the third game in the sequence in which they conceded.
France average 1.6 goals scored and 1 conceded per match in this Nations League campaign. At home, they have one win and one draw with a 5:2 aggregate.
Structure, strengths and availability
- Michael Olise leads France’s tournament scoring with 2 goals in 3 appearances; Rayan Cherki has 1 assist in 3 matches.
- Marcus Thuram, Ousmane Dembele and Maghnes Akliouche are unavailable through injury.
- Aurelien Tchouameni, Maxence Lacroix and Jules Kounde are also out.
France’s scoring record contrasts with the absences across attack and defence.
- Italyaway1:3
- Belgiumhome4:1
- Italyhome1:1
- Belgiumaway1:0
- Turkeyaway1:0
Turkey: five defeats and a fragile defence
Turkey have lost their last five matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 13. They scored in three of those games and conceded in all five, allowing at least two goals in four. Their Nations League averages are 0.6 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per match.
Away from home, Turkey have two defeats, with 1 goal scored and 6 conceded. They have no clean sheet in the competition.
Attacking options and squad losses
- Over 2.5 total goals occurred in 4 of Turkey’s 5 tournament matches.
- Arda Guler leads their tournament scoring with 1 goal in 2 appearances.
- Aral Simsir, Kenan Yildiz, Muldur and Demirbag are unavailable through injury; Ozan Kabak is suspended.
Following the France meeting, Turkey lost 1:4, 0:3, 1:3 and 1:2, with Belgium and Italy among their opponents during the five-match sequence.
- Belgiumhome1:2
- Italyaway1:3
- Belgiumaway0:3
- Italyhome1:4
- Francehome0:1
Previous meeting favoured France
The teams’ only official meeting in the last five years ended in a 1:0 away win for France on 25 September. That leaves France with one victory, no draws and no defeats in the recent head-to-head record.
That meeting produced one total goal and a France clean sheet. A single match cannot establish a long-term scoring pattern.
- 25.09.2026Turkey0:1FranceUEFA Nations League - League A
- 14.10.2019France1:1TurkeyUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 08.06.2019Turkey2:0FranceUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 05.06.2009France1:0TurkeyFriendlies
- 26.06.2003France3:2TurkeyConfederations Cup
Team news before the final group fixture
Kylian Mbappe is doubtful after missing training before the Italy match because of hamstring and hip discomfort. Elye Kroupi received his first call-up as Thuram’s replacement.
Our pick: France to clear the handicap
Our bet is Handicap 1 (-1) 1.31. France have scored 5 goals and conceded 2 across their two home fixtures, while Turkey have lost both away games with an aggregate score of 1:6. That contrast supports backing the hosts to win by more than a single goal, rather than relying solely on their group position.
France’s absences reduce the margin for error: Thuram and Dembele are unavailable, while Tchouameni’s absence weakens midfield protection. Turkey, though, are missing Yildiz and suspended defender Ozan Kabak, limiting their attacking options and defensive cover. Michael Olise’s 2 tournament goals offer France a scoring threat despite the depleted attack. The visitors have conceded at least twice in four of their five fixtures; a repeat would leave them needing a stronger attacking return than their 0.6 goals per game to threaten this bet. Predicted score: 2:0.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 1 (-1) 1.31 targets Turkey’s defensive weakness away from home. A two-goal French victory wins the bet; a one-goal victory returns the stake, providing protection against a narrower result.
FAQ
When does France — Turkey kick off?
The match starts on 15.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Matmut-Atlantique (Bordeaux).
What is the prediction for France — Turkey?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (-1) at 1.31.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: France win — 79%, draw — 13%, Turkey win — 8%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Italyaway1:3
- Belgiumhome4:1
- Italyhome1:1
- Belgiumaway1:0
- Turkeyaway1:0
- Belgiumhome1:2
- Italyaway1:3
- Belgiumaway0:3
- Italyhome1:4
- Francehome0:1
Standings · Group 1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 25.09.2026Turkey0:1FranceUEFA Nations League - League A
- 14.10.2019France1:1TurkeyUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 08.06.2019Turkey2:0FranceUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 05.06.2009France1:0TurkeyFriendlies
- 26.06.2003France3:2TurkeyConfederations Cup
About the match
- 15 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Matmut-Atlantique (Bordeaux)
- Weather: 14° · precip. 13% · wind 3.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 14.11 19:00
Market view and line direction
The 1X2 market assigns France a 77.3% probability of a home win, compared with 14.1% for a draw and 8.6% for an away win. France’s odds are shortening, while the draw and Turkey odds are drifting.
Over 3.5 is assessed at 51.3%, with its odds shortening; Under 3.5 stands at 48.7%, with its odds drifting. BTTS Yes has a 54.4% probability but is drifting, while BTTS No has 45.6% and is shortening.
The market favours France more clearly than either goals outcome; the near-even Over/Under split offers no clear total-goals preference.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (-1)
- Current odds
- 1.31
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
