Belgium vs Italy: UEFA Nations League Match Prediction
Belgium
ItalyBelgium host Italy at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussels on 15 November in the sixth round of UEFA Nations League Group 1. Quarter-final qualification is at stake. Both teams last played on 12 November.
Belgium: home defence and returning options
Results and scoring balance
Belgium have three wins and two defeats from five group matches, scoring eight goals and conceding six. Their latest result was a 2:1 victory away to Turkey. At home, they lost 0:1 to France before beating Turkey 3:0: just one goal conceded across those two fixtures, but sharply different attacking returns.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Belgium scored in four of five games, with an average of 1.6 goals per match.
- Two clean sheets contrast with four goals conceded in the away defeat to France.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred three times, while BTTS landed twice: higher totals have not consistently required both attacks to contribute.
Selection and availability
Mark van Bommel says Romelu Lukaku is available, while Romeo Lavia returns after suspension. Kevin De Bruyne has three tournament goals in two appearances; Charles De Ketelaere has a goal and an assist in three.
- Turkeyaway2:1
- Franceaway1:4
- Turkeyhome3:0
- Francehome0:1
- Italyaway2:0
Italy: productive attack, no clean sheets
Recent momentum and away returns
Italy followed a 3:1 victory over Turkey with the same score against France. Across five group games they have three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 11 goals scored and six conceded. Their two away fixtures produced a win and a draw, with five goals for and two against.
Attacking gains and defensive exposure
- Italy average 2.2 goals per game, a stronger attacking return than their hosts.
- They conceded in all five matches, making defensive control their clearest weakness.
- BTTS occurred four times and Over 2.5 goals three times, although five fixtures remain a small sample.
Changes in midfield and on the flank
Davide Frattesi is out with a muscle injury; Nicolo Cambiaghi is in pain and doubtful. Roberto Mancini has confirmed replacements for both in the starting side and may use Federico Dimarco on an attacking flank.
- Francehome3:1
- Turkeyhome3:1
- Franceaway1:1
- Turkeyaway4:1
- Belgiumhome0:2
Recent meetings offer no settled hierarchy
The three official meetings in the last five years produced one win each and one draw. The first meeting finished 2:2, the second ended 1:0 to Italy, and Belgium won the September encounter 2:0 in Italy.
- 25.09.2026Italy0:2BelgiumUEFA Nations League - League A
- 14.11.2024Belgium0:1ItalyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 10.10.2024Italy2:2BelgiumUEFA Nations League - League A
- 10.10.2021Italy2:1BelgiumUEFA Nations League - League A - Play-off
- 02.07.2021Belgium1:2ItalyUEFA European Championship (Play-off)
Coaches frame the qualification contest
Van Bommel describes the match as important for continued participation rather than a final, and says a draw would suit Italy. Mancini nevertheless states that his team will pursue victory and compares Belgium with France for technique and speed. Belgium have already secured seeded status for the Euro 2028 qualifying draw, leaving Nations League progression as the immediate objective.
Our goals pick for Belgium
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.29. Belgium have scored in four of their last five matches and reached two goals in three of them, including the recent away meeting with Italy. That makes the hosts' scoring output a more focused option than backing them to win a qualification contest.
Italy have conceded in all five group games, although they have allowed just two goals across their two away fixtures: a reason not to expect a rout. According to media reports, Romelu Lukaku is available, while Davide Frattesi is ruled out with a muscle injury. Lukaku offers Belgium another finishing option; Frattesi's absence forces Italy to adjust their midfield, without necessarily making their defence weaker. A projected score of 2:1 fits the hosts' attacking returns, but the five-match sample limits confidence.
The betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.29 targets two or more Belgium goals, with the stake returned if they score exactly once. That protection is useful against an Italy side whose away defending has been tighter than its overall record.
FAQ
When does Belgium — Italy kick off?
The match starts on 15.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Stade Roi Baudouin (Brussel).
What is the prediction for Belgium — Italy?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.29.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Belgium win — 44%, draw — 25%, Italy win — 31%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Turkeyaway2:1
- Franceaway1:4
- Turkeyhome3:0
- Francehome0:1
- Italyaway2:0
- Francehome3:1
- Turkeyhome3:1
- Franceaway1:1
- Turkeyaway4:1
- Belgiumhome0:2
Standings · Group 1
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:11 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 25.09.2026Italy0:2BelgiumUEFA Nations League - League A
- 14.11.2024Belgium0:1ItalyUEFA Nations League - League A
- 10.10.2024Italy2:2BelgiumUEFA Nations League - League A
- 10.10.2021Italy2:1BelgiumUEFA Nations League - League A - Play-off
- 02.07.2021Belgium1:2ItalyUEFA European Championship (Play-off)
About the match
- 15 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Stade Roi Baudouin (Brussel)
- Weather: 10° · precip. 87% · wind 4.7 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 14.11 15:00
Belgium lead the market, Italy attract support
Belgium are favourites at 43.9%, below an even chance of winning. Italy stand at 30.9%, with the draw at 25.3%. Over the past 24 hours, the away win has attracted support while confidence in the home win and draw has eased. No comparable strength rating is supplied.
The goals markets lean towards Over 2.5 goals at 58.3% and BTTS at 61.2%, with both moving towards those outcomes. Italy's scoring and concession patterns fit that direction more closely than Belgium's. Forecast rain and gusts up to 12.2 m/s add a match-day consideration, but the supplied figures do not establish their effect on scoring.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.29
- Odds at prediction
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 74%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
