Serbia vs Germany: UEFA Nations League Match Prediction
Serbia
GermanySerbia host Germany at Rajko Mitic in Belgrade in the fifth round of UEFA Nations League Group 2. Serbia remain without points, while Germany need a win to strengthen their chances of reaching the quarter-finals. The match will be played without spectators, removing Serbia’s usual home support.
Serbia: defensive strain and a depleted attack
Recent form and statistical profile
Serbia have lost their last five matches. They scored in 4 of those matches but conceded in all 5. Their Nations League record is 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 8 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 4 matches, and 3 exceeded 2.5 goals.
At home in the group, Serbia have lost both games, scoring 2 goals and conceding 4. They have 0 clean sheets across the tournament and concede 2 goals per group match. They sit bottom, four points behind the group leader.
Squad availability and tactical options
Aleksandar Stankovic left camp with a right-thigh adductor injury, Dusan Vlahovic is absent for personal reasons, and Filip Kostic is injured. Strahinja Pavlovic remains doubtful because of kidney problems. These absences leave Serbia with fewer selection options.
Mihajlo Cvetkovic is Serbia’s leading tournament scorer with 1 goal in 1 appearance, while Aleksa Terzic has 1 assist in 1 match. Coach Veljko Paunovic has described the team as being in a rebuilding phase.
- Netherlandsaway1:2
- Germanyaway0:2
- Netherlandshome1:2
- Greecehome1:2
- Mexicoaway1:5
Germany: compact defence, limited attacking output
Recent results and away record
Germany’s last five matches brought 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. Their Nations League record is 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 3 goals for and 2 against. Both teams scored in only 1 of 4 group matches, and none exceeded 2.5 goals.
Germany have drawn both away group matches, scoring once and conceding once. Across the tournament, they concede 0.5 goals per match, have two clean sheets and score 0.75 goals per match. They are third with 5 points; their latest group match ended in a goalless draw against Greece.
Personnel, selection and tactical balance
Jurgen Klopp has reduced the squad to 24 players and recalled Niclas Fullkrug. Waldemar Anton is out with a muscle injury and has been replaced by Ridle Baku. Serge Gnabry, Josha Vagnoman, Philipp Treu and Bambase Conte are also injured. The absences reduce selection options.
Germany have recorded only 1 win in the last 6 matches.
- Greeceaway0:0
- Serbiahome2:0
- Greecehome0:1
- Netherlandsaway1:1
- Paraguayhome1:2
Head-to-head record
The teams have met once in official competition during the last five years. Germany won 2:0 at home on October 1, leaving Serbia with 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in the recent head-to-head record.
- 01.10.2026Germany2:0SerbiaUEFA Nations League - League A
- 20.03.2019Germany1:1SerbiaFriendlies
- 18.06.2010Germany0:1SerbiaWorld Cup
- 31.05.2008Germany2:1SerbiaFriendlies
Team news and motivation
Serbia’s losing sequence is also described as six matches, rather than the five-match run detailed above; the sequence count remains inconsistent.
Klopp is under scrutiny for what has been described as the worst start by a Germany coach. Injuries limit his rotation options.
Germany to find two goals
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.28. Serbia have conceded eight goals across their four Nations League fixtures, including four across their two home games. That pattern makes the visitors’ scoring threshold more relevant than a bet requiring goals from both sides: Serbia’s contribution is not needed for this selection to win.
According to media reports, Vlahovic and Kostic are unavailable, Stankovic has withdrawn injured and Pavlovic is doubtful. Those absences reduce Serbia’s options for relieving pressure, while uncertainty around Pavlovic affects their defensive choices. Germany need a win to pursue a quarter-final place, but their single goal across two away fixtures is the main reservation. This is a bet against Serbia’s repeated defensive failures rather than a claim that Germany’s attack is flourishing. Probable score: 0:2.
Final selection
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.28 is our choice, with Germany’s modest away output keeping confidence measured. The selection requires two visiting goals, regardless of the result.
FAQ
When does Serbia — Germany kick off?
The match starts on 13.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Rajko Mitic (Belgrade).
What is the prediction for Serbia — Germany?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.28.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Serbia win — 10%, draw — 16%, Germany win — 74%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Netherlandsaway1:2
- Germanyaway0:2
- Netherlandshome1:2
- Greecehome1:2
- Mexicoaway1:5
- Greeceaway0:0
- Serbiahome2:0
- Greecehome0:1
- Netherlandsaway1:1
- Paraguayhome1:2
Standings · Group 2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 01.10.2026Germany2:0SerbiaUEFA Nations League - League A
- 20.03.2019Germany1:1SerbiaFriendlies
- 18.06.2010Germany0:1SerbiaWorld Cup
- 31.05.2008Germany2:1SerbiaFriendlies
About the match
- 13 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Rajko Mitic (Belgrade)
- Weather: 7° · precip. 29% · wind 3.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 12.11 15:00
Market view and line movement
The market makes Germany the clear favourite, assigning 74.4% to an away win, 9.9% to a Serbia win and 15.7% to the draw. The 1X2 margin is 5.4%. All listed lines have remained without noticeable movement over the last 24 hours.
The goals market leans slightly toward Under 3.5 at 52.9%, against 47.1% for Over. BTTS Yes carries a market probability of 54.1%, a contrast with Germany’s low-scoring group campaign.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.28
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
