Netherlands vs Greece: UEFA Nations League Match Prediction
Netherlands
GreeceNetherlands host Greece at Amsterdam’s Johan Cruyff Arena on 13 November in matchday five of UEFA Nations League Group 2. Both have eight points from four games, making this a direct contest for position near the top. The Dutch are listed first and Greece second; their points totals are level.
Netherlands: scoring regularly, conceding regularly
Recent results and home performance
The Dutch followed a 1:2 World Cup defeat by Morocco with a draw against Germany, an away win over Serbia, a draw in Greece and a home win over Serbia. That makes two wins, two draws and one defeat, with goals scored and conceded in all five. Their two Nations League home fixtures had a combined 3:2 goal balance: home advantage has not brought defensive separation.
Attacking strengths and defensive exposure
- Seven goals in four group games show more attacking output than Greece.
- Five conceded and no clean sheets mean every group opponent has scored.
- Three of four fixtures finished Over 2.5 goals, although that is a small sample.
Availability and selection questions
Virgil van Dijk and Brian Brobbey will miss November’s internationals through injury. The former’s absence removes an established defensive option from a side already conceding regularly. Six players are one caution from suspension, including Jan Paul van Hecke, Quinten Timber, Jurrien Timber, Noa Lang and Tijjani Reijnders; this is a warning threshold, not a current ban.
- Serbiahome2:1
- Greeceaway2:2
- Serbiaaway2:1
- Germanyhome1:1
- Moroccohome1:2
Greece: away wins underpin their challenge
Form across the last five games
Greece’s sequence began with a 0:1 friendly defeat by Italy, followed by wins in Serbia and Germany and two home draws. They therefore match the Dutch five-game record, but scored in only three of those matches. Their latest outing, a goalless draw with Germany, extended their unbeaten competitive run without adding to their attacking return.
Efficiency versus scoring volume
- Both Nations League away games ended in victory, with three goals scored and one conceded.
- Two clean sheets in four group fixtures distinguish their defence from the hosts’.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred twice: the scoring pattern is less uniform than the Netherlands’.
Squad information remains limited
The two successful away appearances support their competitive credentials, but cannot establish how they will line up in Amsterdam.
- Germanyhome0:0
- Netherlandshome2:2
- Germanyaway1:0
- Serbiaaway2:1
- Italyhome0:1
Recent meetings favour the Dutch
Netherlands have two wins and a draw in the three official meetings across the last five years. The 2023 qualifiers ended 3:0 in the Netherlands and 1:0 in Greece. October’s 2:2 reversed the earlier clean-sheet pattern: the most recent encounter was considerably closer than those qualifying results.
- 01.10.2026Greece2:2NetherlandsUEFA Nations League - League A
- 16.10.2023Greece0:1NetherlandsUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 07.09.2023Netherlands3:0GreeceUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 01.09.2016Netherlands1:2GreeceFriendlies
- 07.09.2010Greece3:1NetherlandsClub Friendlies
Discipline is the main additional talking point
The pre-match news centres on Dutch absences and the risk of further suspensions.
Our scoring pick
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.7. The Netherlands' four Nations League matches have all produced goals at both ends: seven scored and five conceded. That makes a Dutch clean sheet a less convincing premise than another exchange of goals. According to media reports, Virgil van Dijk will miss November's fixtures through injury, removing a key defender from a back line already conceding regularly.
Greece have scored three goals across two away wins in this tournament, so their attacking threat is not dependent on home advantage. The latest meeting finished 2:2, showing they can breach this particular defence. There is a clear counterweight: Greece have kept two clean sheets in four group games, while Brian Brobbey's injury reduces Dutch attacking options. Even so, the hosts' scoring record makes the visitors shutting them out the weaker case. A plausible score is 2:1.
Final verdict
Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.7 is our selection: Greece's away scoring and the weakened Dutch defence favour a goal each, though the four-match tournament sample limits confidence.
FAQ
When does Netherlands — Greece kick off?
The match starts on 13.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Johan Cruyff Arena (Amsterdam).
What is the prediction for Netherlands — Greece?
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.7.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Netherlands win — 62%, draw — 22%, Greece win — 16%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Serbiahome2:1
- Greeceaway2:2
- Serbiaaway2:1
- Germanyhome1:1
- Moroccohome1:2
- Germanyhome0:0
- Netherlandshome2:2
- Germanyaway1:0
- Serbiaaway2:1
- Italyhome0:1
Standings · Group 2
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7:5 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 01.10.2026Greece2:2NetherlandsUEFA Nations League - League A
- 16.10.2023Greece0:1NetherlandsUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 07.09.2023Netherlands3:0GreeceUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 01.09.2016Netherlands1:2GreeceFriendlies
- 07.09.2010Greece3:1NetherlandsClub Friendlies
About the match
- 13 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Johan Cruyff Arena (Amsterdam), Amsterdam
- Weather: 8° · precip. 0% · wind 2.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 12.11 15:00
Market preference softens towards the visitors
Netherlands remain the 1X2 favourites at a margin-adjusted 62.1%, against 21.5% for the draw and 16.3% for Greece. Over the past 24 hours, confidence in the home win has weakened while support for the away win has increased. The draw has barely moved.
The goals market is also shifting towards Under 2.5, despite Over still carrying the greater probability. BTTS pricing is broadly unchanged. Those movements separate the markets: support for Greece has grown without a corresponding increase in confidence in a higher-scoring match.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Current odds
- 1.7
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 60%
- Market estimate
- 55%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
