Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Olympique de Marseille prediction in UEFA Europa League
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Olympique de MarseilleMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.42 won
Match result
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0:1 Olympique de Marseille (0:0, 0:1)
In the UEFA Europa League match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and Olympique de Marseille, Olympique de Marseille secured a 0:1 victory. The first half concluded with a 0:0 score. Our prediction, "Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)," unfortunately resulted in a lost bet, as Bayer 04 Leverkusen failed to score.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.35 — the bet lost.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen host Olympique de Marseille at BayArena in the fourth round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Leverkusen have taken maximum points from three matches without conceding, while Marseille have lost all three and sit near the bottom without a point. The result directly affects Leverkusen’s position among the leading sides and gives Marseille a chance to revive their European campaign.
Leverkusen: strong European record, unstable league defence
Recent form and home profile
Leverkusen have won three of their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding 10. The sequence includes home wins over Freiburg and Nurnberg, an away victory at OFI Crete, and defeats against Hoffenheim and Stuttgart. The latest result was a 2:4 home loss to Stuttgart, highlighting weaker domestic defending than in Europe. In the tournament, Leverkusen have scored 8 and conceded 0 across three rounds; their only home European match produced two goals and no goals conceded.
Game plan, key players and availability
- European control: three wins, three clean sheets and an average of 2.67 goals scored per match.
- Attacking spread: Jonas Hofmann has two tournament goals, while Malik Tillman has one goal and one assist; Ibrahim Maza has also scored once.
- Defensive risk: Leverkusen conceded nine times across the Hoffenheim, Nurnberg and Stuttgart matches.
- Squad loss: Moussa Diaby is unavailable with a hamstring injury.
The European results point to a side comfortable controlling matches when its defensive line remains compact. The recent domestic concessions show vulnerability in open transitions and against sustained pressure.
- VfB Stuttgarthome2:4
- Nurnberghome5:2
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway0:3
- OFI Creteaway2:0
- Freiburghome2:1
Marseille: domestic recovery against a failing European record
Recent results and away weakness
Marseille also have three wins and two defeats in their last five, but their European and domestic performances split sharply. They beat Angers 5:2, Le Havre 4:3 and Toulouse 2:0, scoring 11 goals in those victories. Their two European away fixtures brought defeats at Sturm Graz and another loss in the tournament sequence; across two away league-phase matches they have scored once and conceded five. Overall in the competition, Marseille have scored 1 and allowed 6.
Threats, weaknesses and lineup information
- The current two-match winning run includes a clean sheet against Toulouse.
- Marseille have scored in only three of their last five matches and conceded in four.
- The team has produced just one goal in three Europa League matches, with no clean sheet.
Marseille’s domestic attack has shown enough volume to punish loose defending, but the European sample is much less productive. The 4:3 win over Le Havre fits a pattern of high-event matches, while the defeats by Olympiacos and Sturm Graz show difficulty breaking down disciplined opposition.
- Toulousehome2:0
- Le Havrehome4:3
- Sturm Grazaway0:1
- Angers SCOaway5:2
- Olympiacos Piraeushome0:1
Previous meetings and comparative level
The only listed encounter was a friendly in August 2023, when Leverkusen won 2:1 away from home. That result has limited predictive value, while the current league-phase records create a clear contrast: Leverkusen have a perfect record with eight goals scored and none conceded; Marseille have no points and only one goal.
Leverkusen are second with nine points and a goal balance of 8:0. Marseille are 34th with 0 points and a balance of 1:6. The comparison rests on table position, European results and recent scoring records.
- 02.08.2023Olympique de Marseille1:2Bayer 04 LeverkusenClub Friendlies
- 19.07.2014Bayer 04 Leverkusen1:4Olympique de MarseilleClub Friendlies
Team news, motivation and external assessments
Leverkusen have won three consecutive European matches without conceding, including the 2:0 victory at OFI Crete and earlier wins over Celta and Lech. Their recent domestic defeats to Hoffenheim and Stuttgart have exposed defensive problems, with nine goals conceded across three matches. Diaby’s hamstring injury removes one attacking option.
Marseille have followed four domestic defeats with three league wins, but their Europa League campaign began with three losses: 1:4 against Besiktas, 0:1 against Olympiacos and 0:1 against Sturm Graz. The latest 2:0 win over Toulouse offers momentum.
Line-ups
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Starting XI: 1. Mark Flekken, 2. Facundo Medina, 3. Miguel Gutierrez, 4. Jarell Quansah, 7. Jonas Hofmann, 8. Robert Andrich, 12. Edmond Tapsoba, 14. Patrik Schick, 17. Lucas Vazquez, 24. Aleix Garcia, 30. Ibrahim Maza
Substitutes: 5. Loic Bade, 6. Ezequiel Fernandez, 9. Afonso Bastardo Moreira, 10. Malik Tillman, 28. Janis Blaswich, 36. Niklas Lomb, 42. Montrell Culbreath, 43. Ben Hawighorst
Coach: Carles Martinez Novell
Olympique de Marseille
Starting XI: 4. CJ Egan-Riley, 8. Himad Abdelli, 9. Amine Gouiri, 12. Jeffrey de Lange, 14. Igor Paixao, 19. Geoffrey Kondogbia, 21. Nayef Aguerd, 22. Timothy Weah, 23. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, 25. Ulisses Garcia Lopes, 74. Kelyann Bezahaf
Substitutes: 6. Tochukwu Nadi, 7. Angel Gomes, 11. Neal Maupay, 18. Abdoul Bamo Meite, 41. Ibrahim Gomis, 42. Nouhoum Kamissoko, 43. Tadjidine Mmadi, 44. Antoine Valero, 46. Alexi Koum, 48. Keyliane Abdallah, 92. Theo Vermot
Coach: Bruno Genesio
Leverkusen's scoring threshold is the target
Our pick for Bayer 04 Leverkusen against Olympique de Marseille at BayArena is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.35. The hosts have scored eight goals in three Europa League wins, averaging 2.67 per match. More relevant to this threshold, they have scored at least twice in three of their last five fixtures across all competitions; the exceptions were a home defeat by VfB Stuttgart and an away defeat at TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in which they failed to score.
Marseille have conceded six goals in three European defeats, with five allowed across two away trips. That away record supports backing the hosts' attack rather than relying on the match result: Leverkusen conceded four against Stuttgart yet still scored twice. According to media reports, Moussa Diaby is out with a hamstring injury. The European sample is only three matches, so confidence should remain measured. A plausible score is 2:1.
Final selection
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.35 targets two home goals without requiring a clean sheet or a win. Marseille's European away defending is the clearest reason to favour that threshold.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- VfB Stuttgarthome2:4
- Nurnberghome5:2
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimaway0:3
- OFI Creteaway2:0
- Freiburghome2:1
- Toulousehome2:0
- Le Havrehome4:3
- Sturm Grazaway0:1
- Angers SCOaway5:2
- Olympiacos Piraeushome0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 33 | Viktoria Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Olympique de Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 02.08.2023Olympique de Marseille1:2Bayer 04 LeverkusenClub Friendlies
- 19.07.2014Bayer 04 Leverkusen1:4Olympique de MarseilleClub Friendlies
About the match
- 5 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: BayArena (Leverkusen), Leverkuzen
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and goal expectations
The market makes Leverkusen a clear home favourite, assigning a 68.8% probability to a home win, compared with 18.1% for the draw and 13.1% for an away win. The line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
The goal market is more balanced: the probability of fewer than 3.5 goals is 55%, while the higher-total option is at 45.1%. BTTS Yes is rated at 57.1%, slightly ahead of BTTS No at 42.9%. That combination reflects Leverkusen’s European clean-sheet record against Marseille’s recent domestic scoring, while also accounting for Leverkusen’s 10 goals conceded in their last five overall matches.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Odds
- 1.26
- Odds at prediction
- 1.35
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 70%
- Market estimate
- 76%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.26
- Potential win
- 26 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.24
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $