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Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction: Austria Bundesliga

Austria. Bundesliga· Tour 12 Live
Sturm GrazSturm Graz
3:4
(2:2, 1:2)
2-й тайм · 91'
Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
12.5536%
X3.6625%
22.4438%
Our prediction
Handicap 2 (0) 1.69
Stake 100 $, potential win 69 $ odds at kick-off 1.83

Sturm Graz host Red Bull Salzburg at Merkur Arena in round 12 of the Austrian Bundesliga. The hosts are fourth with 19 points; Salzburg are second on 27, six behind Rapid Wien with a game in hand. This final fixture before the international break offers Sturm a chance to narrow the eight-point gap to their visitors.

Sturm Graz
Sturm GrazLast 5: 1 W, 2 D, 2 L

Sturm: home strength meets defensive errors

Recent results

Sturm have one win, two draws and two defeats in five matches. They have scored in all five and conceded in four. Since beating Marseille, they have drawn with Ried and Wolfsberger AC and lost to Austria Lustenau and Celje. Thursday's 2:3 home defeat leaves little recovery time.

Strengths and weaknesses

  • Unbeaten in five home league games: three wins, two draws, goals 12:5.
  • Scored in all five recent matches, but conceded in the last four.
  • Both teams scored in seven of 11 league games; only three clean sheets.

Availability and attacking options

Check Oumar Diakite has four league goals; Simon Seidl has three assists. Leon Grgic, Sidi Jatta, Nelson Weiper, Filip Rozga, Otar Kiteishvili, Emran Soglo and goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov are unavailable through injury. Gizo Mamageishvili returned on Thursday and assisted from a corner; Wlodarczyk and Geyrhofer are also fit again. Those returns restore options without resolving the absences across the attack.

Recent matches
  • Celjehome2:3
  • Wolfsberger ACaway1:1
  • Austria Lustenauaway2:3
  • Riedhome2:2
  • Olympique de Marseillehome1:0
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull SalzburgLast 5: 3 W, 1 D, 1 L

Salzburg: league control, less certainty away

Form across competitions

Salzburg's last five matches brought three wins, a draw and a defeat, with 13 goals scored and eight conceded. League victories over LASK, 3:1, and Austria Lustenau, 5:1, preceded Thursday's 0:2 loss at Anderlecht. They have conceded in every match of that five-game sequence, contrasting with their domestic defensive record.

The home-away distinction

  • Eight wins and three draws in the league, with goals 29:6.
  • Two wins and three draws away, scoring eight and conceding three.
  • Five league clean sheets; seven of 11 fixtures exceeded 2.5 goals.

Personnel affecting the attack

Haris Tabakovic has four league goals. Jesper Lindstrom, with one goal and two assists, is out with muscular problems. Nicolas Veratschnig, Enrique Aguilar, Justin Omoregie, Sota Kitano, Damir Redzic, Dominik Schmid and John Mellberg are also injured. Missing wide players and defenders reduces the available rotation after the European trip.

Recent matches
  • Anderlechtaway0:2
  • Austria Lustenauhome5:1
  • Bregenzaway3:2
  • LASK Linzhome3:1
  • Celjeaway2:2

Head-to-head: a narrow historical balance

Sturm lead the 15 official meetings over five years by five wins to four, with six draws. Salzburg won the September meeting in Graz 3:0, ending a sequence of three consecutive 1:1 draws. That result contrasts sharply with Sturm's current unbeaten home league record.

Sturm Graz wins 5draws 6Red Bull Salzburg wins 4
  • 20.09.2026Sturm Graz0:3FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga
  • 03.05.2026FC Salzburg1:1Sturm GrazAustria. Bundesliga. Championship (Play-off)
  • 20.03.2026Sturm Graz1:1FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga. Championship (Play-off)
  • 09.11.2025Sturm Graz1:1FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga
  • 20.09.2025Sturm Graz2:0FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga

Reaction centres on preventable mistakes

Sturm coach Fabio Ingolitsch criticised the mismatch between effort and reward after Celje, while Jurgen Heil said all three goals conceded were preventable. The immediate emphasis is therefore on execution at both ends. Confirmed starting lineups, formations, suspension details, a numerical strength assessment and independent expert opinions are not supplied.

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

Starting XI: 2. Joshua Quarshie, 4. Горенц-Станкович, 14. Check Oumar Diakite, 19. Simon Seidl, 22. Ammar Helac, 23. Arjan Malic, 27. Luis Estefano Balbo Vieira, 28. Jurgen Heil, 30. Pascal Koller, 39. Luca Weinhandl, 43. Jacob Hodl

Substitutes: 1. Adam Stejskal, 5. Вальчи, 15. Gizo Mamageishvili, 17. Влодарчик, 20. Seedy Jatta, 21. Petar Petrovic, 26. Belmin Beganovic, 40. Julian Halwachs, 78. Valmir Matoshi

Coach: Fabio Ingolitsch

Our Prediction

Sturm Graz face Red Bull Salzburg at Merkur Arena with fourth place on 19 points against Salzburg’s 27 and the visitors still unbeaten after 11 league rounds. The recommended bet is Handicap 2 (0) 1.69. This line protects against a draw while taking Salzburg’s stronger league profile: 29 goals scored and only 6 conceded, compared with Sturm’s 19 and 13.

Salzburg have won 8 of 11 league matches and have already beaten Sturm 3:0 in Graz this season. The hosts remain unbeaten at home in the championship, but their recent five-match run contains only one win, while eight players are unavailable, including Leon Grgic, Sidi Yatta, Otar Kiteishvili and goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov. Salzburg also have absences, yet their attacking depth and defensive record remain superior. A likely score is 1:2, which settles the bet in the visitors’ favour.

Conclusion

Handicap 2 (0) 1.69 is the preferred selection. Salzburg’s unbeaten league campaign, 0.55 goals conceded per match and 3:0 win in the reverse fixture outweigh Sturm’s home resilience and make the draw-protection line the stronger option.

Chances by market estimate

Sturm Graz36%
Draw25%
Red Bull Salzburg38%

Team form

Sturm Graz
Sturm GrazLast 5: 1 W, 2 D, 2 L
  • Celjehome2:3
  • Wolfsberger ACaway1:1
  • Austria Lustenauaway2:3
  • Riedhome2:2
  • Olympique de Marseillehome1:0
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull SalzburgLast 5: 3 W, 1 D, 1 L
  • Anderlechtaway0:2
  • Austria Lustenauhome5:1
  • Bregenzaway3:2
  • LASK Linzhome3:1
  • Celjeaway2:2

Standings

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Rapid Wien12110139:933
2Red Bull Salzburg1183029:627
2FC Salzburg853018:418
3LASK Linz1281330:1525
4Sturm Graz1154219:1319
5Hartberg1152420:1917

Head-to-head

Sturm Graz wins 5draws 6Red Bull Salzburg wins 4
  • 20.09.2026Sturm Graz0:3FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga
  • 03.05.2026FC Salzburg1:1Sturm GrazAustria. Bundesliga. Championship (Play-off)
  • 20.03.2026Sturm Graz1:1FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga. Championship (Play-off)
  • 09.11.2025Sturm Graz1:1FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga
  • 20.09.2025Sturm Graz2:0FC SalzburgAustria. Bundesliga

About the match

  • 8 November · 11:00 New York
  • Venue: Merkur Arena (Graz), Grats

Odds

Match result
W12.55
X3.66
W22.44
Double chance
1X1.51
121.25
2X1.47
Handicaps
Handicap 1 (-1)4.1
Handicap 1 (0)1.9
Handicap 1 (1)1.29
Handicap 2 (-1)3.05
Handicap 2 (0)1.83
Handicap 2 (1)1.16
Totals
Total Over (3)1.57
Total Over (3.5)2.17
Total Over (4)2.59
Total Under (3)2.16
Total Under (3.5)1.64
Total Under (4)1.4
Both teams to score
Both Teams To Score - Yes1.36
Both Teams To Score - No2.9

odds before kick-off

Market: a modest edge for the visitors

Salzburg are the 1X2 favourites at 41.8%, against 33.9% for Sturm and 24.4% for the draw. That is a limited advantage rather than a commanding assessment: Salzburg's stronger league record is balanced by their three draws in five away fixtures.

BTTS is assessed at 68.1%, while Under 3.5 goals holds a narrower majority at 53.5%. The distinction is between both attacks contributing and the match becoming especially high-scoring. No listed market has shown a notable line movement over the past 24 hours.

Our prediction

Market
Handicap 2 (0)
Odds
1.69
Confidence
Our estimate
58%
Market estimate
51%
Stake amount
100 $ · 1.69
Potential win
69 $
Odds at kick-off
1.83
Status
pending