Sara Bejlek vs Marie Bouzkova: WTA Ningbo Match Prediction
Sara Bejlek
Marie BouzkovaMatch result
Sara Bejlek 0:2 Marie Bouzkova (3:6, 4:6)
Marie Bouzkova defeated Sara Bejlek in the WTA Ningbo tournament with a final score of 0:2 (3:6, 4:6). Following this straight-sets outcome, our prediction for Total Under (22) proved accurate, and the bet won.
Our prediction: Total Under (22) at 1.74 — the bet won.
Sara Bejlek and Marie Bouzkova meet for a semifinal place at the WTA 500 event at Ningbo Taishi Tennis Club on October 23. Both have won their opening two matches, but their routes differ: Bejlek has already played a deciding set, while Bouzkova has advanced without dropping one. Their latest rounds also offer a useful contrast for the games total: one involved a tiebreak, the other a considerably shorter second set.
Bejlek: a rebound with a tighter recent scoreline
Recent form and the Ningbo turnaround
Bejlek has three wins and two losses across her last five matches. She beat Maddison Inglis before straight-set defeats against Naomi Osaka and Jasmine Paolini, then recovered in Ningbo with victories over Alycia Parks and Sorana Cirstea. Her set balance over that sequence is 6–5; at this tournament it is 4–1. The opening-round win required three sets, so her unbeaten run here has included more resistance than the match record alone suggests.
Scoring pressure and workload
Against Cirstea, Bejlek won 7–6(3), 6–4: 23 games despite a straight-set finish. That distinction matters for totals, because a third set is not necessary to produce a longer match. Winning the tiebreak secured the opening set, but it does not establish a broader advantage on serve or return without point-level statistics. Her first two rounds were on consecutive dates, October 20 and 21, giving her one fewer recovery day between rounds than Bouzkova. Match durations and physical-condition updates are unavailable, so that scheduling difference cannot be treated as evidence of fatigue.
- Sorana Cirsteaaway2:0
- Alycia Parkshome2:1
- Jasmine Paoliniaway0:2
- Naomi Osakahome0:2
- Maddison Inglishome2:0
Bouzkova: cleaner progress through the early rounds
Results with fewer sets conceded
Bouzkova also has three wins from her last five appearances. That sequence includes losses to Qinwen Zheng and Maja Chwalinska, a recorded 1–0 result against Clara Tauson, and straight-set wins over Kamilla Rakhimova and Anastasia Zakharova in Ningbo. The Tauson score does not describe a completed two-set match and should not be used as one. Her current tournament set balance is 4–0, giving her a cleaner opening two rounds than Bejlek without establishing how comfortably she held serve.
Game distribution and recovery time
Bouzkova defeated Zakharova 7–5, 6–2, a 20-game match. The first set reached its final two scheduled games before being settled, whereas the second contained only eight games. That split shows why a competitive opening set need not produce a high overall total. Bouzkova played her first round on October 19 and her second on October 21, with a day between them. Neither player has a verified injury or suspension update; current rankings, surface-specific records and serve-and-return percentages are also unavailable.
- Anastasia Zakharovahome2:0
- Kamilla Rakhimovaaway2:0
- Maja Chwalinskahome1:2
- Clara Tausonaway1:0
- Qinwen Zhenghome1:2
Quarterfinal place secured, with limited extra context
The pre-match news confirms that both players advanced on October 21 and were paired for this quarterfinal on October 22. No additional expert assessment or player statement about preparation or motivation is available. The court surface is not specified, so assigning either player a surface-based advantage would go beyond the established match information.
Our pick: a two-set route below the total
For Sara Bejlek against Marie Bouzkova in the Ningbo quarterfinal, our pick is Total Under (22) 1.74. Bouzkova is the preferred winner, but the bet depends on her keeping the match compact rather than simply advancing. Her 7:5, 6:2 win over Zakharova was completed in straight sets: a competitive opening set need not push this match beyond the threshold.
Bejlek presents the main risk. Her 7:6, 6:4 victory over Cirstea went to a tie-break, showing how one tie-break can defeat this selection even without a deciding set. The case for the Under therefore rests on Bouzkova avoiding that extended set, not on assuming Bejlek will offer little resistance. The projected score is 6:4, 6:4 to Bouzkova, a straight-sets finish.
Final betting verdict
Total Under (22) 1.74 is our selection, with a straight-sets result the clearest route to a return. The recent scorelines leave a narrow margin: a tie-break or a third set is the principal threat, so this is a measured lean rather than a high-confidence pick.
Team form
- Sorana Cirsteaaway2:0
- Alycia Parkshome2:1
- Jasmine Paoliniaway0:2
- Naomi Osakahome0:2
- Maddison Inglishome2:0
- Anastasia Zakharovahome2:0
- Kamilla Rakhimovaaway2:0
- Maja Chwalinskahome1:2
- Clara Tausonaway1:0
- Qinwen Zhenghome1:2
About the match
- 23 October · 01:00 New York
- Venue: Ningbo Taishi Tennis Club (Ningbo)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A games-total market close to an even split
The market assigns Under 21.5 games a 50.1% probability and Over 21.5 games 49.9%, after removing the margin. Over the past 24 hours, the line has moved toward the Under and away from the Over, but the probability gap remains minimal. No match-winner assessment is supplied, so neither player can be described as the market favourite.
The latest completed matches fall on opposite sides of that threshold, although both ended in two sets. Set count alone therefore cannot resolve this total: the distribution of games within each set is decisive. There are no service-hold rates, break frequencies or broader game-total records here to establish whether those recent score patterns are repeatable.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Under (22)
- Odds
- 1.74
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 53%
- Market estimate
- 53%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.74
- Potential win
- 74 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.74
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +74 $