Elsa Jacquemot vs Alina Charaeva Prediction: WTA Courmayeur
Elsa Jacquemot
Alina CharaevaMatch result
Elsa Jacquemot 1:2 Alina Charaeva (2:6, 6:4, 1:6)
In the WTA Courmayeur match, Elsa Jacquemot faced Alina Charaeva and suffered a defeat with a 1:2 final score. Charaeva took the first set 6:2, Jacquemot responded by winning the second 6:4, but Charaeva secured the final set 6:1. Our prediction was Handicap 1 (3), and the bet lost.
Our prediction: Handicap 1 (3) at 1.71 — the bet lost.
Elsa Jacquemot and Alina Charaeva play for a place in the final at Courmayeur Sport Center on 31 October, with the semifinal scheduled for 11:00 America/New_York time. Both have won three matches here: Jacquemot has needed a deciding set each time, while Charaeva has won twice in straight sets.
Jacquemot: winning through deciding sets
Recent form and competitive strengths
Jacquemot has four wins in her last five matches. She beat Suzan Lamens, lost to Hannah Klugman, then defeated Caroline Werner, Susan Bandecchi and Elizara Yaneva in Courmayeur. Her tournament set record is 6–3: she has won every decider but conceded a set in every round.
Workload and limits of the assessment
Jacquemot played nine sets on 28, 29 and 30 October, leaving her with three consecutive days of competition before the semifinal. Match durations are unavailable, so the physical cost is harder to assess. Her two wins as the designated home player do not represent home-court advantage in an individual tournament. Without rankings, surface-specific records or serve-and-return figures, recent results alone cannot establish superiority in those areas.
- Elizara Yanevahome2:1
- Susan Bandecchiaway2:1
- Caroline Wernerhome2:1
- Hannah Klugmanhome0:2
- Suzan Lamensaway2:0
Charaeva: a shorter route through Courmayeur
A turnaround after successive defeats
Charaeva followed losses to Martyna Kubka and Anna Siskova with wins over Enola Chiesa, Gabriela Andrea Knutson and Marina Bassols Ribera. Her tournament set record is 6–1, with Knutson the only opponent to take a set. Her last-five record is three wins and two defeats, weaker than Jacquemot’s despite the shorter matches here.
Recovery time and tactical unknowns
Charaeva played seven sets on 27, 28 and 30 October, with no match listed on 29 October. Her lighter set load and extra day without competition do not prove better physical condition. A straight-sets quarterfinal also spared her another decider.
Service-hold rates, break-point figures and confirmed court-surface information are unavailable, preventing a specific assessment of her serving, returning or surface suitability.
- Marina Bassols Riberaaway2:0
- Gabriela Andrea Knutsonaway2:1
- Enola Chiesaaway2:0
- Anna Siskovaaway1:2
- Martyna Kubkaaway0:2
Previous meetings favour Jacquemot
Jacquemot won both recorded meetings 2–0 at Andrezieux-Boutheon on 28 and 29 January 2025, leaving Charaeva without a set in their head-to-head. Neither match has game scores or service statistics available, so those results cannot show how close the sets were or establish a reliable game-total baseline.
- 29.01.2025Elsa Jacquemot2:0Alina CharaevaWorld Tennis. Andrezieux-Boutheon. Women
- 28.01.2025Elsa Jacquemot2:0Alina CharaevaAndrezieux-Boutheon
- 10.10.2020Alina Charaeva1:2Elsa JacquemotWTA. Roland Garros. Girls
Semifinal news and availability
The semifinal pairing is confirmed, with no injuries, withdrawals or suspensions reported. No expert assessments are available.
Our Pick: Handicap 1 (3)
Elsa Jacquemot — Alina Charaeva is a semifinal for a place in the Courmayeur final. Our bet is Handicap 1 (3) 1.71. Jacquemot won both previous meetings, twice taking the match 2:0 and conceding no set. That is the clearest matchup signal available: Charaeva has not yet found a way to extend this pairing.
Jacquemot also rates higher on long-term strength and carries the stronger expected-win figure. She has won all three matches at this tournament, although each required a deciding set, showing that she can win matches that go to a deciding set. Charaeva has also won three from three, but her route has been more efficient, with a 6:1 set record. The contrast points to a close contest rather than a clear Charaeva advantage, while Jacquemot’s previous control of the matchup makes the three-game cushion valuable. No injuries, withdrawals or suspensions are reported.
Likely score: Jacquemot to win 2:1 in sets while staying within three games of Charaeva at worst.
Conclusion
Handicap 1 (3) 1.71 is the selection. Jacquemot’s two straight-set wins in the head-to-head and her ability to survive three demanding matches in Courmayeur provide the strongest support for backing her with a positive handicap.
Team form
- Elizara Yanevahome2:1
- Susan Bandecchiaway2:1
- Caroline Wernerhome2:1
- Hannah Klugmanhome0:2
- Suzan Lamensaway2:0
- Marina Bassols Riberaaway2:0
- Gabriela Andrea Knutsonaway2:1
- Enola Chiesaaway2:0
- Anna Siskovaaway1:2
- Martyna Kubkaaway0:2
Head-to-head
- 29.01.2025Elsa Jacquemot2:0Alina CharaevaWorld Tennis. Andrezieux-Boutheon. Women
- 28.01.2025Elsa Jacquemot2:0Alina CharaevaAndrezieux-Boutheon
- 10.10.2020Alina Charaeva1:2Elsa JacquemotWTA. Roland Garros. Girls
About the match
- 31 October · 11:00 New York
- Venue: Courmayeur Sport Center (Courmayeur)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Game totals: a narrowly balanced market
After removing the margin, Over 21.5 games has a 51.1% probability and Under 48.9%. Over odds have risen over the past 24 hours while Under has shortened, indicating movement toward the lower total. No match-winner market is available to identify a favourite.
Two extended sets can clear the line, while three short sets can stay below it. Without individual game scores, neither side of the total has a clear betting edge.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (3)
- Odds
- 1.72
- Odds at prediction
- 1.71
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 53%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.72
- Potential win
- 72 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.72
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $