Norilsk vs SKA-VMF forecast: VHL match analysis
Norilsk
SKA-VMFMore picks
- Period 3: No draw 1.4 pending
Norilsk hosts SKA-VMF at Sports Palace Arctic, two points behind the VHL leaders. The hosts are second with 32 points from 22 games; the visitors are eleventh with 25 from 17, nine points off first place with fewer games played.
Norilsk: attacking momentum at home
Norilsk has won its last five matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding 9. Two away shutouts were followed by home victories over Khimik, Zvezda and Dynamo Saint Petersburg. Those three home games produced 13 goals for and 8 against: scoring has outpaced defensive control.
Form, strengths and available information
- Norilsk scored in each of its last five games, with at least three goals in each of its last three home matches.
- The recent record also lists goals conceded in four of the last five games, including all three home fixtures.
- The league record stands at 57 goals scored and 47 conceded in 22 games.
Mikhail Shalagin leads Norilsk in goals, assists and total points. A full projected lineup is not provided.
- Dynamo Saint Petersburghome3:2
- Zvezda Moscowhome5:2
- Khimik Voskresenskhome5:4
- Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshmaaway2:0
- Chelmet Chelyabinskaway2:1
SKA-VMF: compact defence and a long unbeaten run
SKA-VMF has won four of its last five games, all consecutively after an away defeat to Neftyanik. The five-game totals are 16 goals scored and 2 conceded, with three home shutouts and another at Bars Kazan.
Defensive profile and squad situation
The visitors have scored in all five recent matches. Their league record of 48 goals for and 23 against in 17 games contrasts with Norilsk’s higher-scoring, higher-conceding profile. Defender Stepan Anisimov terminated his contract with SKA-VMF on 1 November, and the coaching staff changed around the same date. Evgeny Ketov has demanded correct, attentive and reliable play. A complete starting lineup is not provided.
Goalkeeping, special teams and travel
- Kalugahome2:0
- AKM Tula Oblasthome5:0
- Ryazan-VDVhome4:0
- Bars Kazanaway4:0
- Neftyanik Almetyevskaway1:2
Head-to-head record favours Norilsk overall
Norilsk has won four of the six meetings in the official five-year series, with scores of 3:2, 3:1, 5:3 and 6:3. The aggregate scoring is 20–17 in Norilsk’s favour, with 37 goals overall.
SKA-VMF won the last two meetings 4:0 and 4:3.
- 10.12.2025Norilsk3:4SKA-VMFVHL
- 30.11.2025SKA-VMF4:0NorilskVHL
- 23.08.2025SKA-VMF3:0NorilskClub Friendlies
- 23.02.2025SKA-VMF3:6NorilskVHL
- 29.09.2024Norilsk5:3SKA-VMFVHL
Team news and motivation before the faceoff
Norilsk’s latest victory came against Dynamo Saint Petersburg on 3 November. The team is currently in second place.
SKA-VMF also recorded a shutout victory over AKM, with its defensive run a feature of October.
Line-ups
Norilsk
Substitutes: 77. Yegor Guskov
SKA-VMF
Substitutes: 18. Mark Slivchenko, 31. Gleb Saranchuk, 73. Nikita Podlyagin
Our pick: four goals within reach
Norilsk faces SKA-VMF at Sports Palace Arctic with a chance to close the gap at the top. Our pick is Total Over (3.5) 1.4. All six official meetings have produced at least four goals, so this threshold has been reached even without both attacks contributing. Both teams have also scored in each of their last five games.
Norilsk’s three latest home fixtures produced 21 goals combined: the hosts scored 13 and conceded 8. That balance offers a route past this line through pressure at either end. SKA-VMF’s four consecutive shutouts are the main risk, especially with coach Evgeny Ketov demanding attentive, reliable play. Norilsk can counter with Mikhail Shalagin, its leading scorer, goalscorer and assist provider. Confirmed lineups and injury details are unavailable. A plausible score is 3:2.
Final betting view
Total Over (3.5) 1.4 is our selection because four goals do not require a repeat of Norilsk’s highest-scoring home games. The visitors’ defensive streak warrants restraint, rather than treating the head-to-head record as a guarantee.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Dynamo Saint Petersburghome3:2
- Zvezda Moscowhome5:2
- Khimik Voskresenskhome5:4
- Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshmaaway2:0
- Chelmet Chelyabinskaway2:1
- Kalugahome2:0
- AKM Tula Oblasthome5:0
- Ryazan-VDVhome4:0
- Bars Kazanaway4:0
- Neftyanik Almetyevskaway1:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omskiye Krylya | 20 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 54:26 | 34 |
| 2 | Norilsk | 22 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 57:47 | 32 |
| 3 | Neftyanik Almetyevsk | 19 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 53:34 | 30 |
| 10 | Toros Neftekamsk | 20 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 49:43 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA-VMF | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 48:23 | 25 |
| 12 | Buran Voronezh | 19 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 39:35 | 24 |
Head-to-head
- 10.12.2025Norilsk3:4SKA-VMFVHL
- 30.11.2025SKA-VMF4:0NorilskVHL
- 23.08.2025SKA-VMF3:0NorilskClub Friendlies
- 23.02.2025SKA-VMF3:6NorilskVHL
- 29.09.2024Norilsk5:3SKA-VMFVHL
About the match
- 5 November · 07:00 New York
- Venue: Sports Palace Arctic (Norilsk)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and goal-line logic
The 1X2 market makes SKA-VMF a narrow favourite: away win 40.1%, home win 35.5% and draw 24.4%. The line has remained unchanged over the last day. The listed margin is 7.1%, so these percentages represent the market ranking rather than a precise measure of team strength.
The total-goals market slightly favours Under 4.5 at 53.2% over Over 4.5 at 46.8%. BTTS (both teams to score) Yes is priced at 78.2%, a sharp contrast with SKA-VMF’s four consecutive shutouts.
Under 4.5 is the market’s marginal preference, but Norilsk’s recent home scoring makes that lean less clear-cut.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (3.5)
- Odds
- 1.4
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 65%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.4
- Potential win
- 40 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.4
- Status
- pending
