Toronto Maple Leafs vs Minnesota Wild forecast: NHL game analysis
Toronto Maple Leafs
Minnesota WildToronto Maple Leafs host Minnesota Wild at Scotiabank Arena in an NHL meeting between a team trying to stop a four-game losing streak and the Western Conference leader protecting a long unbeaten points run. Toronto sits 12th with 18 points, while Minnesota has 30 points from 20 games and leads the conference.
Toronto’s form and depleted lineup
Toronto has lost four straight and five of its last six. The Maple Leafs scored in four of their last five games. Their only win in that sequence came away at Vancouver. The home trend is worse: four consecutive losses at Scotiabank Arena, including a shutout against New Jersey and a six-goal concession to Colorado.
Where the matchup is difficult for the hosts
- Toronto scored in four of the last five games.
- The defensive structure has broken down repeatedly, with goals allowed in all five.
- Morgan Rielly is out with a lower-body injury, while Nick Blankenburg and Marshall Rifai are also unavailable on defense.
- Max Domi, Kirill Marchenko, Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons and Miles Wood are unavailable among the forwards.
These absences reduce Toronto’s flexibility in defensive pairings and forward lines.
- Colorado Avalanchehome3:6
- New Jersey Devilshome0:4
- Montreal Canadienshome2:4
- Utah Mammothhome2:3
- Vancouver Canucksaway4:2
Minnesota’s defensive platform and attacking rhythm
Minnesota has won four of its last five. The Wild scored in all five games, including road wins at Washington, Philadelphia and Montreal. Their only loss in the sequence came at home against Tampa Bay. The current road trend is five consecutive away victories. Minnesota has taken points in nine straight games, and the Montreal win extended the broader points run to nine.
Why the visitors enter with the stronger profile
- Minnesota averages 2.26 goals allowed per game, the league’s best defensive mark at this stage.
- The Wild found the net in every one of their last five games.
- Kirill Kaprizov carries an eight-game scoring streak and is the main attacking reference.
- Quinn Hughes also has an eight-game scoring streak, adding continuous production from the blue line.
Head coach John Hynes said the team defended with discipline against Montreal, resisted pressure and avoided unnecessary penalties. No Minnesota injuries, suspensions or confirmed line combinations are listed. Goaltender save percentages and precise power-play and penalty-kill figures are unavailable.
- Montreal Canadiensaway2:1
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome3:4
- San Jose Sharkshome4:1
- Philadelphia Flyersaway4:2
- Washington Capitalsaway5:1
Head-to-head record and scoring pattern
Toronto leads the official five-year series with six wins in ten meetings. The latest eight results are more balanced: Toronto won five and Minnesota won three. The recent series has produced open games, including Toronto’s seven-goal performance and Minnesota’s six-goal win, as well as lower-scoring results such as Toronto’s one-goal defeat in 2025.
Across those latest eight meetings, Toronto scored 27 goals and Minnesota scored 25, an average of 6.5 total goals per game. The historical advantage belongs to the hosts, while current form and defensive profile favor Minnesota.
- 15.03.2026Minnesota Wild2:4Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 20.01.2026Toronto Maple Leafs3:6Minnesota WildNHL
- 30.01.2025Toronto Maple Leafs1:3Minnesota WildNHL
- 03.11.2024Minnesota Wild2:1Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 19.11.2023Minnesota Wild3:4Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
Team news, motivation and available opinions
Toronto approaches the match after three straight home defeats and five losses in six games. The reported downturn in Sergei Bobrovsky’s play does not establish his role for this fixture, and the starting goaltender remains unconfirmed. The injury list includes eight Toronto players.
Hynes’ comments point to a deliberate defensive approach from Minnesota, particularly after the Montreal game was decided in overtime. Kaprizov and Hughes give the visitors two active scoring streaks, while the Wild’s road results show that their structure has travelled well. No further confirmed expert opinions, suspensions or final line announcements are available.
Our forecast
Toronto Maple Leafs host Minnesota Wild at Scotiabank Arena after four consecutive defeats. Minnesota has four wins in five games, a points streak of at least eight matches and five straight road wins. The visitors lead the Western Conference with 30 points from 20 games; Toronto has 18 points and sits 12th.
Our pick is Period 1: BTTS (both teams to score) - No 1.44. Minnesota has conceded 44 goals in 20 games, with a stated average of 2.26 goals conceded per game, and recently beat Montreal 2:1 in overtime. John Hynes’ team has limited unnecessary penalties while protecting leads.
Toronto has lost its last four home games, including a shutout against New Jersey. Its attack is missing Max Domi, Kirill Marchenko, Jack Roslovic, Colton Sissons and others. Morgan Rielly and two more defensemen are also unavailable, but those absences alone do not point to both teams scoring early.
Conclusion
Period 1: BTTS (both teams to score) - No 1.44 is the pick: Minnesota’s league-leading defense and Toronto’s depleted attack favor at least one team going scoreless in the opening period.
FAQ
When does Toronto Maple Leafs — Minnesota Wild kick off?
The match starts on 12.11.2026 at 19:00 (New York), Scotiabank Arena (Toronto).
What is the prediction for Toronto Maple Leafs — Minnesota Wild?
Our pick is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No at 1.44.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Toronto Maple Leafs win — 30%, draw — 22%, Minnesota Wild win — 48%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Colorado Avalanchehome3:6
- New Jersey Devilshome0:4
- Montreal Canadienshome2:4
- Utah Mammothhome2:3
- Vancouver Canucksaway4:2
- Montreal Canadiensaway2:1
- Tampa Bay Lightninghome3:4
- San Jose Sharkshome4:1
- Philadelphia Flyersaway4:2
- Washington Capitalsaway5:1
Standings · Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | New York Islanders | 17 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 49:52 | 18 |
| 12 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 20 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 67:70 | 18 |
| 13 | Detroit Red Wings | 19 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 51:59 | 17 |
Head-to-head
- 15.03.2026Minnesota Wild2:4Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 20.01.2026Toronto Maple Leafs3:6Minnesota WildNHL
- 30.01.2025Toronto Maple Leafs1:3Minnesota WildNHL
- 03.11.2024Minnesota Wild2:1Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
- 19.11.2023Minnesota Wild3:4Toronto Maple LeafsNHL
About the match
- 12 November · 19:00 New York
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
Odds
Odds updated 11.11 19:10
Market view and goal-line logic
The market makes Minnesota the clear 1X2 favorite, assigning the visitors a 48% estimated probability, compared with 30.1% for Toronto and 22% for a draw. The away line is shortening, while both the home-win and draw lines are moving against those outcomes. That direction matches Minnesota’s four wins in five games and Toronto’s four-game losing streak.
The goal market leans toward Under 6.5 at 57.2%, although that side is losing support as the line moves upward. Over 6.5 is assessed at 42.8% and is gaining market support. BTTS Yes remains the dominant hockey scoring scenario at 87.7%, but its line is also moving away from that outcome; BTTS No is gaining support despite only 12.3% estimated probability. The market rates Minnesota more strongly than Toronto and treats a moderate total as slightly more likely than a high-scoring game.
Our prediction
- Market
- Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No
- Current odds
- 1.44
- Odds at prediction
- 1.45
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
