Ilves vs Pelicans: Finland Elite League Match Prediction
Ilves
PelicansMore picks
- Period 3: No draw 1.35 pending
- Period 3: Not: Ilves win and total over 1.5 1.28 pending
Ilves host Pelicans at Nokia Arena in Tampere, three points behind league leaders Lukko. Second-placed Ilves lead their 13th-placed visitors by 13 points, though Pelicans have played three fewer games.
Ilves tighten up at the back
Recent form and home results
Ilves have won three of their last five games, scoring eight goals and conceding five. Successive victories over Tappara and KalPa followed two consecutive defeats. All five matches finished Under 4.5 goals.
Strengths and pressure points
- Ilves kept two shutouts in five games.
- They scored in every match of that sequence, but managed only one goal in three.
- The two home fixtures produced a win and a defeat, with two goals scored in total.
- Away from home, Ilves won twice in three games with a combined score of 6:3.
Personnel and special teams
Across 20 league games, Ilves have scored 52 goals and allowed 39, averaging 2.60 and 1.95 respectively. Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical details remain unconfirmed. Without goalkeeper save percentages or power-play and penalty-kill figures, their low concession rate cannot be attributed specifically to goaltending or special teams.
- KalPahome1:0
- Tapparaaway2:1
- HIFKaway1:2
- Mikkelin Jukurithome1:2
- Mikkelin Jukuritaway3:0
Pelicans lose their scoring momentum
A sharp change across five games
Pelicans have three wins and two defeats in their latest five: three victories followed by losses to TPS and Kiekko-Espoo. They scored 13 goals during the winning run and just one across the next two games, finishing the sequence with a 14:10 goal balance.
Where the visitors fluctuate
- The two recent away games brought one win and one defeat, with four goals scored and three conceded.
- At home, consecutive five-goal performances were followed by a shutout loss.
- Three of the last five matches finished Under 4.5 goals.
- Pelicans conceded in four of those five games, limiting their margin for error when scoring declined.
Selection and season balance
Pelicans have scored 40 goals and conceded 38 in 17 league fixtures, averaging 2.35 and 2.24 respectively. Personnel updates and likely lines remain unconfirmed; goalkeeper save percentages and special-teams conversion rates are unavailable. No verified selection change explains the recent attacking drop.
- Kiekko-Espoohome0:3
- TPSaway1:2
- SaiPahome5:0
- Tapparahome5:4
- HPKaway3:1
Home ice has mattered in this matchup
Ilves lead the official five-year series by nine wins to six. They won six of the latest eight meetings, including all four at home. The two most recent Tampere encounters ended 3:0, while Pelicans won the latest meeting on their own ice, 2:1 in February.
Those eight games averaged 4.88 goals: the first four produced 25 goals and the next four only 14. The higher-scoring results belong to the earlier part of that sequence.
- 25.02.2026Pelicans2:1IlvesFinland. Elite League
- 03.02.2026Ilves3:0PelicansFinland. Elite League
- 25.11.2025Ilves3:0PelicansFinland. Elite League
- 19.09.2025Pelicans2:3IlvesFinland. Elite League
- 11.03.2025Ilves4:2PelicansFinland. Elite League
A calendar break before the restart
There is no fresh match-specific news or expert comment. Both teams last played on October 31, leaving ten full days without a listed fixture before this meeting. Neither faces an immediate back-to-back burden; travel arrangements are unspecified.
Our pick
For Ilves against Pelicans at Nokia Arena, our selection is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.26. Ilves have conceded only one goal across their last two matches, both victories, and recorded two shutouts in their last five games. That defensive improvement matters most in the opening period.
Pelicans arrive after two consecutive defeats, scoring only once in those games and finishing their latest match against Kiekko-Espoo without a goal. Their recent five-game record is balanced at three wins and two losses, but the attacking decline is clear: 13 goals in the three-match winning run, followed by just one in the next two fixtures. Ilves have also scored in all five recent matches, so the stronger first-period scenario is a controlled home start with Pelicans struggling to create enough early pressure. Likely score: Ilves 2:0 Pelicans, with the opening period finishing 0:0.
Conclusion
Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.26 is supported by Ilves’ recent defensive record and Pelicans’ blank in their latest match. The expected cautious opening makes a goalless first period the preferred outcome.
FAQ
When does Ilves — Pelicans kick off?
The match starts on 11.11.2026 at 11:30 (New York), Nokia Arena (Tampere).
What is the prediction for Ilves — Pelicans?
Our pick is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No at 1.26.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Ilves win — 51%, draw — 23%, Pelicans win — 26%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- KalPahome1:0
- Tapparaaway2:1
- HIFKaway1:2
- Mikkelin Jukurithome1:2
- Mikkelin Jukuritaway3:0
- Kiekko-Espoohome0:3
- TPSaway1:2
- SaiPahome5:0
- Tapparahome5:4
- HPKaway3:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lukko | 19 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 53:36 | 40 |
| 2 | Ilves | 20 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 52:39 | 37 |
| 3 | Mikkelin Jukurit | 20 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 49:40 | 36 |
| 12 | KalPa | 19 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 48:44 | 26 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 17 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 40:38 | 24 |
| 14 | HPK | 20 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 42:55 | 24 |
Head-to-head
- 25.02.2026Pelicans2:1IlvesFinland. Elite League
- 03.02.2026Ilves3:0PelicansFinland. Elite League
- 25.11.2025Ilves3:0PelicansFinland. Elite League
- 19.09.2025Pelicans2:3IlvesFinland. Elite League
- 11.03.2025Ilves4:2PelicansFinland. Elite League
About the match
- 11 November · 11:30 New York
- Venue: Nokia Arena (Tampere)
Odds
Odds updated 11.11 00:40
Ilves favoured, totals finely balanced
The regulation-time 1X2 market assigns 51.5% to an Ilves home win, 22.7% to a draw and 25.8% to a Pelicans away win. The outcome lines have shown no notable movement over the past 24 hours.
Over/Under 4.5 goals is almost evenly balanced at 50.7% for Over and 49.3% for Under, with movement favouring Under. Confidence in BTTS (both teams to score) has eased despite a 78.7% assessment; both teams scoring remains compatible with a low total.
Our prediction
- Market
- Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No
- Current odds
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 73%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.27
- Potential win
- 27 $
- Status
- pending
