VHL match prediction: Norilsk vs Bars Kazan
Bars Kazan
NorilskMore picks
- Period 3: No draw 1.37 pending
Bars Kazan host Norilsk at the Sports Palace in the VHL. The visitors are third with 33 points from 23 matches; the hosts are eighteenth with 21 points from 21 games, 15 points behind the leaders.
Bars Kazan: inconsistent results and defensive pressure
Recent form and home profile
Bars Kazan have won 2 of their last 5 games and lost 3, scoring 7 goals and conceding 11. They scored in 3 matches and conceded in all 5. Their latest result was a 3-2 away win over Kaluga, following defeats without scoring against Neftyanik Almetyevsk and, subsequently, AKM Tula Oblast, with a loss to Ryazan-VDV between them.
The recent home results include a 3-2 win over CSK VVS Samara and the defeat without scoring against Neftyanik.
Key advantages and risks
Bars scored 3 goals in each of their 2 latest victories, but their season totals stand at 46 goals scored and 61 conceded.
Roster and special teams
- Kalugaaway3:2
- AKM Tula Oblastaway0:3
- Ryazan-VDVaway1:2
- Neftyanik Almetyevskhome0:2
- CSK VVS Samarahome3:2
Norilsk: stronger run and sustained scoring
Recent form and venue pattern
Norilsk have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 17 goals and allowing 11. They scored in every game and conceded in 4. A 2-0 away win over Gornyak-UGMK was followed by 3 consecutive home wins against Khimik Voskresensk, Zvezda Moscow, and Dynamo Saint Petersburg. Their latest match ended in a 2-3 home loss to SKA-VMF.
What drives the visitors
- Norilsk scored at least 3 goals in 3 of their last 5 games.
- They conceded 4 against Khimik, 2 against Zvezda Moscow and Dynamo Saint Petersburg, 0 against Gornyak-UGMK, and 3 against SKA-VMF.
- Their season totals are 59 goals scored and 50 conceded.
Lineup information
Head coach Sergey Golubovich described the performance against Dynamo Saint Petersburg as only average and said the reasons required further examination. He also stressed the team’s self-motivation and positive emotional response to victories.
- SKA-VMFhome2:3
- Dynamo Saint Petersburghome3:2
- Zvezda Moscowhome5:2
- Khimik Voskresenskhome5:4
- Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshmaaway2:0
Head-to-head record favors Norilsk
The teams have met 6 times in official matches over the last 5 years. Bars Kazan won 2 and Norilsk 4, with Bars Kazan scoring 11 goals and Norilsk scoring 18. The latest meeting ended in a 4-1 Norilsk win at Bars Kazan; the previous meeting chronologically was a 2-3 Norilsk loss to Bars Kazan on 23 November 2025.
At least 4 goals were scored in 5 of the 6 meetings. Bars Kazan won the 2 games played in Norilsk in late December and November, but lost all 3 official home matches against this opponent.
- 23.12.2025Bars Kazan1:4NorilskVHL
- 23.11.2025Norilsk2:3Bars KazanVHL
- 29.12.2024Norilsk2:3Bars KazanVHL
- 21.11.2024Bars Kazan3:4NorilskVHL
- 12.02.2024Bars Kazan0:4NorilskVHL
News, motivation, and the schedule angle
Golubovich said the team needs to improve “everything,” rather than identifying a single tactical weakness. Norilsk are only 3 points behind the leader.
Norilsk last played on 5 November and Bars Kazan on 4 November, leaving both sides several days between matches. There is no additional confirmed news about Bars Kazan.
Our pick
Our bet — Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No at 1.27. Norilsk enters the match in third place with 33 points, twelve points ahead of Bars Kazan, and has won four of its last five games. The visitors scored in all five of those matches, but their opening approach is more important for this market: the VHL usually produces a measured first period.
Bars Kazan’s defensive profile supports the selection. The hosts have conceded 61 goals in 21 league games. Norilsk has been more reliable overall, yet its recent results also include a 2:0 away win. The match-level market assigns 20.1% to both teams not scoring and 79.9% to both teams scoring; these probabilities do not apply specifically to the first period, while the recent form and table position favour Norilsk’s ability to prevent an early response. The expected score is 0:1 after the first period.
Conclusion
Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No at 1.27 is the preferred outcome. Norilsk’s stronger season, Bars Kazan’s 61 conceded goals, and the cautious first-period pattern point to at least one team remaining scoreless before the opening intermission.
FAQ
When does Bars Kazan — Norilsk kick off?
The match starts on 11.11.2026 at 10:30 (New York), Sports Palace (Kazan).
What is the prediction for Bars Kazan — Norilsk?
Our pick is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No at 1.27.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Bars Kazan win — 34%, draw — 24%, Norilsk win — 42%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Kalugaaway3:2
- AKM Tula Oblastaway0:3
- Ryazan-VDVaway1:2
- Neftyanik Almetyevskhome0:2
- CSK VVS Samarahome3:2
- SKA-VMFhome2:3
- Dynamo Saint Petersburghome3:2
- Zvezda Moscowhome5:2
- Khimik Voskresenskhome5:4
- Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshmaaway2:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AKM Tula Oblast | 23 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 70:51 | 33 |
| 3 | Norilsk | 23 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 59:50 | 33 |
| 4 | Neftyanik Almetyevsk | 21 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 57:41 | 32 |
| 17 | Gornyak-UGMK Verkhnyaya Pyshma | 20 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 51:47 | 23 |
| 18 | Bars Kazan | 21 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 46:61 | 21 |
| 19 | Dynamo Saint Petersburg | 21 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 54:62 | 21 |
Head-to-head
- 23.12.2025Bars Kazan1:4NorilskVHL
- 23.11.2025Norilsk2:3Bars KazanVHL
- 29.12.2024Norilsk2:3Bars KazanVHL
- 21.11.2024Bars Kazan3:4NorilskVHL
- 12.02.2024Bars Kazan0:4NorilskVHL
About the match
- 11 November · 10:30 New York
- Venue: Sports Palace (Kazan)
Odds
Odds updated 11.11 00:40
Market view and goal-line balance
The 1X2 market makes Norilsk favorites, with a 42.1% probability of an away win, compared with 33.9% for a home win and 24% for a draw. Away odds have shortened over the last 24 hours, while home odds have lengthened, matching the visitors’ advantage in recent results, league position, and head-to-head meetings.
The Over/Under market is close to balanced at 4.5 goals, with Over at 50.7% and gaining support. BTTS (both teams to score) has a market probability of 79.9% and has also strengthened. The goal markets reflect Norilsk’s scoring consistency, Bars’ recent defensive record, and the head-to-head goal totals.
Our prediction
- Market
- Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No
- Current odds
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 72%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.27
- Potential win
- 27 $
- Status
- pending
