Aviator Baranavichy vs Brest: Belarus Extraliga Match Prediction
Aviator Baranavichy
BrestMore picks
- Period 3: No draw 1.29 pending
Aviator Baranavichy and Brest meet at Sport Ice Palace in Baranovichy in a Belarus Extraliga fixture on November 11. The game comes less than two days after their previous meeting, which Aviator won 6:3. Brest occupy sixth place with 27 points from 21 matches, while Aviator are ninth with 21 points. Brest are defending a position above the lower group, and the hosts are trying to close a six-point gap.
Aviator’s scoring surge and defensive exposure
Aviator’s last five matches produced two wins and three losses, with 13 goals for and 25 against. They scored in four of those games and conceded in all five. At home, they beat Dinamo-Maladzyechna 3:2, lost 2:7, then defeated Brest 6:3. Away, they lost to Neman 0:8 and 2:5. Their attack has been more productive in Baranavichy, but the defensive floor remains low.
The 6:3 win over Brest came from a six-goal attack, but Aviator still conceded for the fifth consecutive match. They have 62 goals for and 81 against in 21 league matches, the weakest defensive record among the teams listed around them. Brest sit eight points behind the leader, while Aviator are 14 points back, increasing the hosts’ need for points in the lower-table race.
Roster returns and the main tactical balance
Timofei Krein, Daniil Rogach and Ivan Kostko returned to the Aviator lineup on November 9. Coach Georgy Ryazantsev said their return added energy, and a new 21-year-old American forward, Oleg Bitus, joined the team. The starting lineup, defensive pairings, power-play units and goaltender are not confirmed. Goaltender save percentages are unavailable, so the defensive assessment relies on goals allowed rather than individual netminding figures.
- Home attack: 11 goals across the three listed home games.
- Away attack: two goals in each loss to Neman, then no goal in the eight-goal defeat.
- Defensive trend: 25 goals conceded in the last five matches.
- Personnel trend: three returning players were directly linked by the coach to increased energy.
- Bresthome6:3
- Nemanaway2:5
- Nemanaway0:8
- Dinamo-Maladzyechnahome3:2
- Dinamo-Maladzyechnahome2:7
Brest after two consecutive defeats
Brest also have two wins and three losses in their last five, scoring 12 and conceding 12. They scored in all five games, but lost their last two: 1:2 to HK Mogilev and 3:6 to Aviator. Before that, Brest beat Slavutich Smolensk 3:1 away and HK Mogilev 3:0 at home. Their best results came when the defence conceded fewer than three goals.
Brest have a stronger season profile than Aviator: 62 goals scored and 48 allowed in 21 matches. Their recent away record is mixed, with a win and a loss against Slavutich followed by the defeat in Baranavichy. The latest match exposed problems in puck control and defensive coverage. Head coach Sergey Stas cited lost battles, excessive risky play and defensive breakdowns, describing the team’s state as a small crisis.
New defender, rotation and goaltending uncertainty
Defenceman Dmitry Deryabin signed for Brest and debuted on November 9, but he still needs to regain game fitness. Vladislav Martynyuk was absent from that game’s lineup because of rotation. The starting goaltender, line combinations, injuries and suspensions are not confirmed, and save-percentage figures are unavailable. Brest’s defensive response to the previous six-goal concession is the key lineup question.
- Aviator Baranavichyaway3:6
- HK Mogilevhome1:2
- HK Mogilevhome3:0
- Slavutich Smolenskaway2:3
- Slavutich Smolenskaway3:1
Recent head-to-head pattern
Across 12 official meetings in the last five years, Aviator have four wins, Brest have eight, and there have been no draws. Brest lead the longer series, but the recent sequence has turned: Aviator won both October meetings in 2025, lost three subsequent games, and then beat Brest 6:3 on November 9. The latest result is the most relevant direct comparison because the same teams meet again immediately.
The eight most recent official fixtures produced 19 goals for Aviator and 26 for Brest, an average of 5.625 total goals per game. Six of those eight matches had at least five goals, while the latest meeting reached nine. The head-to-head record supports a high-event profile, though Brest’s earlier 2:1 and 5:0 wins show that the matchup can change when their defensive structure holds.
- 09.11.2026Aviator Baranavichy6:3BrestBelarus. Extraliga
- 24.08.2026Brest3:2Aviator BaranavichyBelarus Cup
- 18.02.2026Brest5:0Aviator BaranavichyBelarus. Extraliga
- 16.02.2026Brest2:1Aviator BaranavichyBelarus. Extraliga
- 19.10.2025Aviator Baranavichy3:1BrestBelarus. Extraliga
Team news and coaching signals
Aviator enter the rematch with three returning players and a newly signed forward, while the coach linked the returns with the energy behind the victory. Brest added Deryabin, but his coach indicated that his match condition is incomplete. Martynyuk’s previous absence was attributed to rotation rather than a stated injury or suspension.
The clearest views from the two benches came after the last meeting. Ryazantsev valued the win against Brest, whereas Stas identified puck-management errors, lost physical battles and defensive gaps. No further injury, suspension or confirmed lineup information is available.
Our prediction
Our pick is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.34. The opening period comes less than two days after Aviator’s 6:3 home win, so both coaching staffs have clear reasons to reduce early risks rather than immediately trade attacks. Aviator have conceded in all five recent matches, while Brest have scored in each of their last five, but those figures mainly reflect the full-game rhythm and do not require an immediate exchange of goals.
The key signal is Brest’s internal assessment after the previous meeting: head coach Sergey Stas described a crisis, poor puck control, excessive risk and defensive breakdowns. That combination can lead to a cautious start while the visitors try to restore structure. Aviator’s returning players—Timofey Krein, Daniil Rogach and Ivan Kostko—already added energy on November 9, while Brest defender Dmitry Deryabin still needs match fitness. The recent head-to-head scoreline was 6:3, yet the rematch setup points to a more cautious opening. Expected score after Period 1: 0:0.
Conclusion
Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No 1.34 is supported by the short turnaround, Brest’s stated problems with puck control and the likely need to stabilize the game before increasing attacking pressure.
FAQ
When does Aviator Baranavichy — Brest kick off?
The match starts on 11.11.2026 at 11:00 (New York), Sport Ice Palace (Baranovichy).
What is the prediction for Aviator Baranavichy — Brest?
Our pick is Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No at 1.34.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Aviator Baranavichy win — 19%, draw — 19%, Brest win — 62%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Bresthome6:3
- Nemanaway2:5
- Nemanaway0:8
- Dinamo-Maladzyechnahome3:2
- Dinamo-Maladzyechnahome2:7
- Aviator Baranavichyaway3:6
- HK Mogilevhome1:2
- HK Mogilevhome3:0
- Slavutich Smolenskaway2:3
- Slavutich Smolenskaway3:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Slavutich Smolensk | 21 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 75:54 | 30 |
| 6 | Brest | 21 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 62:48 | 27 |
| 7 | Lida | 22 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 60:45 | 26 |
| 8 | Neman | 22 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 58:50 | 25 |
| 9 | Aviator Baranavichy | 21 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 62:81 | 21 |
| 10 | Vitebsk | 22 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 56:60 | 20 |
Head-to-head
- 09.11.2026Aviator Baranavichy6:3BrestBelarus. Extraliga
- 24.08.2026Brest3:2Aviator BaranavichyBelarus Cup
- 18.02.2026Brest5:0Aviator BaranavichyBelarus. Extraliga
- 16.02.2026Brest2:1Aviator BaranavichyBelarus. Extraliga
- 19.10.2025Aviator Baranavichy3:1BrestBelarus. Extraliga
About the match
- 11 November · 11:00 New York
- Venue: Sport Ice Palace (Baranovichy)
Odds
Odds updated 11.11 00:40
How the market evaluates the rematch
The market still makes Brest the clear 1X2 favourite, assigning the away win a 62.4% probability. Aviator are given 18.4% and the draw 19.2%. The away-win line has moved outward over the last 24 hours, indicating reduced market confidence in Brest despite their stronger season record; at the same time, the home-win and draw lines have shortened.
The goals market is almost balanced: Over 5.5 is assessed at 49.3% and Under 5.5 at 50.7%, with no meaningful movement. The stronger signal is BTTS Yes at 82.3%, reflecting Aviator’s five-match concession run, Brest’s goals in five consecutive games and the recent 6:3 meeting. The 1X2 market carries a 9.8% margin, so its probabilities indicate market direction rather than fair sporting strength.
Our prediction
- Market
- Period 1: Both Teams To Score - No
- Current odds
- 1.34
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.34
- Potential win
- 34 $
- Status
- pending
